The tsunami-early warning system for the indian ocean: Ten years after

Technical concept of GITEWS.

The day after Christmas this year will mark the 10 anniversary of the tsunami disaster in the Indian Ocean. On 26 December 2004, a quarter of a million people lost their lives, five million required immediate aid and 1.8 million citizens were rendered homeless. The natural disaster, which caused extreme devastation over huge areas and the accompanying grief and anxiety, especially in Indonesia, Thailand and Sri Lanka exceeded the imaginable and reached such drastic dimensions, mainly due to the lack of a warning facility and a disaster management plan for the entire Indian Ocean region at this time.

Germany and the international community of states reacted with immediate support. Within the framework of the German Flood Victim Aid the Federal Government commissioned the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres under the direction of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences with the development of an Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean. From 2005 to 2011, with the large-scale project GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System), the core of an integrated, modern, and effective Tsunami Early Warning System in Indonesia was established. With the follow-up project PROTECTS (Project for Training, Education and Consulting for Tsunami Early Warning Systems, 2011-2014) the personnel of the participating Indonesian institutions were trained to proceed independently and to take over responsibility for the operation of the Early Warning System as well as for the diverse technical and organizational components. In this ways PROTECTS which started in June 2011 and comprised a total of 192 training courses, internships, and hands-on-practice courses, covering all aspects of operation and maintenance of the Tsunami-Early Warning System contributed significantly to the sustainability of InaTEWS.

Under the auspices of the IntergovernmentalOceanographicCommission of UNESCO and with the collaboration of international partner institutes from Germany, the USA, China and Japan, GITEWS was integrated into a Tsunami Early Warning System for Indonesia. GITEWS was positively reviewed by a commission of international experts in 2010 and handed over to Indonesia in March 2011. Since then it has been providing its services under the name InaTEWS -- Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System and is operated by the Indonesian Service for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics BMKG.

On 12 October 2011 the exercise drill "IOWAVE11" was carried out in the Indian Ocean. With this drill, InaTEWS successfully demonstrated that it could, furthermore, take over the role of a Regional Tsunami Service Provider (RTSP). Since then Indonesia, in addition to Australia und India, performs the double function as a National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and also as a RTSP and takes over the responsibility for the timely warning of 28 states around the Indian Ocean in the event of a threatening Tsunami. With the on-going step-by-step development, a comprehensive all-encompassing InaTEWS could be successfully realized.

Indonesia now avails of one of the most modern Tsunami Early Warning Systems. On the basis of data from approx. 300 measuring stations a warning can be issued at a maximum of five minutes after an earthquake. These measuring stations include e.g. seismometers, GPS stations und coastal tide gauges. With the data gained from the sensors and using the most modern evaluation systems such as SeisComP3 which was developed by GFZ scientists for the analyses of earthquake data and a Tsunami simulation system in the Warning Centre it is possible to compile a comprehensive picture of the situation. With the aid of a decision support system respectively classified warnings for the affected coastal areas can then be issued. A total of 70 people are involved the operation of the Warning Centre in Jakarta, with 30 employees working solely in a full shift system. According to information provided by the BMKG a total of 1700 earthquakes with a magnitude of more than M= 5 and 11 quakes with a magnitude of 7 and higher have been evaluated and six Tsunami Warnings have been issued to the public by the Earthquake Monitoring and Tsunami Early Warning Centre since the hand over in March 2011.

Schooling, training and disaster precautions (capacity development) for the local community and Town and District councils have received special emphasis. This Capacity Development has been carried out since 2006 in three "typical" regions: Padang (Sumatra), Chilacap (South-Java) and Denpassar (Bali, tourist stronghold). Here particular emphasis was placed on understanding both the warnings issued and the planned evacuation measures.

Local disaster management structures are established with local decision-makers and Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies are developed. Specifically, the education of trainers who are, in turn, responsible for the further spreading of the developed concepts plays a significant role.

Another key element is the determination of hazard and risk maps as a basis for the local evacuation planning as well as for future town and land-use planning. In Bali communication with the hotel industry was an additional factor.

No Early Warning System will ever be able to prevent a strong earthquake and a resulting tsunami and also, in the future, there will be loss of life and material damage. However, through the existence of an Early Warning System and the integration of organizational measures together with comprehensive capacity building the adverse effects of such a natural disaster can certainly be reduced.

Source: Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

Hurricane-forecast satellites will keep close eyes on the tropics

A set of eight satellites -- each about the size of a microwave oven -- will launch in 2016 and provide scientists unprecedented information about the formation and evolution of hurricanes. Credit: Aaron Ridley

 A set of eight hurricane-forecast satellites being developed at the University of Michigan is expected to give deep insights into how and where storms suddenly intensify--a little-understood process that's becoming more crucial to figure out as the climate changes, U-M researchers say.

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System is scheduled to launch in fall 2016. At the American Geophysical Union Meeting in San Francisco this week, U-M researchers released estimates of how significantly CYGNSS could improve wind speed and storm intensity forecasts.

CYGNSS--said like the swan constellation--is a $173-million NASA mission that U-M is leading with Texas-based Southwest Research Institute. Each of its eight observatories is about the size of a microwave oven. That's much smaller than a typical weather satellite, which is about the size of a van.

The artificial CYGNSS "constellation," as researchers refer to it, will orbit at tropical, hurricane-belt latitudes. Its coverage will stretch from the 38th parallel north near Delaware's latitude to its counterpart in the south just below Buenos Aires.

Because of their arrangement and number, the observatories will be able to measure the same spot on the globe much more often than the weather satellites flying today can. CYGNSS's revisit time will average between four and six hours, and at times, it can be as fast as 12 minutes.

Conventional weather satellites only cross over the same point once or twice a day. Meteorologists can use ground-based Doppler radar to help them make predictions about storms near land, but hurricanes, which form over the open ocean, present a tougher problem.

"The rapid refresh CYGNSS will offer is a key element of how we'll be able to improve hurricane forecasts," said CYGNSS lead investigator Christopher Ruf, director of the U-M Space Physics Research Lab and professor of atmospheric, oceanic and space sciences.
"CYGNSS gets us the ability to measure things that change fast, like extreme weather. Those are the hardest systems to measure with today's satellites. And because the world is warmer and there's more energy to feed storm systems, there's more likelihood of extreme weather."
Through simulations, the researchers quantified the improvement CYGNSS could have on storm intensity predictions. They found that for a wind speed forecast that is off by 33 knots, or 38 miles per hour--the average error with current capabilities--CYGNSS could reduce that by 9 knots, or about 10 mph.

Considering that the categories of hurricane strength ratchet up, on average, every 20 mph, the accuracy boost is "a very significant number," Ruf said.

"I'd describe the feeling about it as guarded excitement," he said. "It's preliminary and it's all based on models. People will be really excited when we get up there and it works."
The numbers could also improve as scientists update weather prediction tools to better use the new kind of information that CYGNSS will provide.

For people who live in common hurricane or typhoon paths, closer wind speed predictions could translate into more accurate estimates of the storm surge at landfall, Ruf said. That's the main way these systems harm people and property.

"The whole ocean gets higher because the wind pushes the water. That's really hard to forecast now and it's an area we hope to make big improvements in," Ruf said.
Researchers expect the satellite system to give them new insights into storm processes. Hurricanes evolve slowly at first, but then they reach a tipping point, says Aaron Ridley, a professor of atmospheric, oceanic and space sciences.

"The hurricane could be meandering across the Atlantic Ocean and then something happens." Ridley said. "It kicks up a notch and people aren't exactly sure why. A lot of scientists would like to study this rapid intensification in more detail. With a normal mission, you might not be able to see it, but with CYGNSS, you have a better chance."
The satellites will operate in a fundamentally different way than their counterparts do. Rather than transmit a signal and read what reflects back, they'll measure how GPS signals from other satellites bounce off the ocean surface. Each of the eight CYGNSS nodes will measure signals from four of the 32 Global Positioning System satellites.

They'll also be able to take measurements through heavy rain--something other weather satellites are, surprisingly, not very good at.

Source: University of Michigan