The Rising above the risk: America's first tsunami refuge

Artist rendering: entry view. Credit: TCF Architecture

Washington's coast is so close to the seismically active Cascadia Subduction Zone that if a megathrust earthquake were to occur, a tsunami would hit the Washington shoreline in just 25 minutes.

One coastal community is preparing for such a disaster by starting construction on the nation's first tsunami evacuation refuge, large enough to shelter more than 1,000 people who are within 20-minute walking distance.

The vertical evacuation-refuge will be the roof of the gym of the new school in Grays Harbor County, Washington. The Ocosta Elementary School and Tsunami Safe Haven will be the first of its kind in the nation and will be the culmination of 18 years of effort, said Tim Walsh, who is a Chief Hazard Geologist at the Department of Natural Resources and has been working on this project since The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program was formed in 1995.

Walsh will present the project design for the school and structure, along with the detailed tsunami modeling used to find the best location for the refuge, at the Annual Meeting for the Geological Society of America in Vancouver, Canada, on 21 October.

The Cascadia subduction zone is a 700-mile-long (over 1,000 kilometers) fault along the West Coast, where the Juan de Fuca Plate is being forced under the North American Plate. The subduction zone is capable of producing massive earthquakes; scientists have calculated that magnitude-9 earthquakes along this fault line could generate a massive tsunami that would hit the coastlines of British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California within 20 to 30 minutes.

"It used to be thought that Cascadia was not an active fault," said Walsh. Not only has Cascadia been found to be an active fault, it has a 10 percent chance that it will cause an earthquake in the next 50 years, he said.

"It is more than 10 times more likely than the chance you will be killed in a traffic accident," said Walsh. "But you aren't looking at the statistics of a single person, but an earthquake that would have an effect on thousands of miles of shoreline."

The biggest challenge was at the very beginning, trying to come up with a location that could be effective and accessible to people, said Walsh. "It was difficult in the beginning to go to the public meetings in these communities and present the hazards, but have no solution for them," he said.
Project Safe Haven brought together structural engineers, oceanographers, geographers, and scientists from many other disciplines to create a safe and accessible refuge.

Walsh and his colleagues used a model called GeoClaw to research the risk a tsunami, factoring in and any potential landslides caused by the wave or megaquake. Using this model in the community for Grays Harbor County, the scientists determined the best place for the school, and what how much force the structure would have to withstand to protect refugees.

The school will be built on a dune ridge, so the roof of the evacuation shelter will be about 55 feet (almost 17 meters) above sea-level. The structure is designed to withstand earthquakes and the impact of a storm surge, with reinforced concrete cores at each corner of the gym and staircases leading to the room. The school, and refuge, is expected to be finished and operating for the 2015-2016 academic year.

Walsh would like to see other scientists and community groups working together to create novel solutions for tsunami risk, he said. Currently the Washington coast has very few tall buildings, and barely any are taller than three stories, leaving thousands of people at risk in the event of a tsunami, he said.

Source: Geological Society of America

The Activity more than location affects perception of earthquakes

Scientists rely on the public's reporting of ground shaking to characterize the intensity of ground motion produced by an earthquake. How accurate and reliable are those perceptions?

A new study by Italian researchers suggests that a person's activity at the time of the quake influences their perception of shaking more than their location. Whether a person is at rest or walking plays a greater role in their perception of ground motion than whether they were asleep on the first or sixth floor of a building. People in motion had the worst perception.

"People are like instruments, more or less sensitive," said Paola Sbarra, co-author and researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in Rome, Italy. "A great amount of data and proper statistical analysis allowed us to make a fine-tuning of different conditions for a better interpretation of earthquake effects," said Sbarra.

The paper, co-authored by colleagues Patrizia Tosi and Valerio de Rubeis, is published today in the March issue of the Seismological Research Letters (SRL).

Sbarra and colleagues sought to analyze two variables -- how an observer's "situation" and "location" influenced their perception in order to improve the characterization of low macroseismic intensities felt near small earthquakes or far from larger ones. Contrary to their findings, the current European macroseismic scale, which is the basis for evaluating how strongly an earthquake is felt, considers location the stronger indicator for defining intensity.

The authors analyzed data submitted to "Hai-sentito-il-terremoto?," which is similar to the U.S. Geological Survey's "Did You Feel It?" website that analyzes information about earthquakes from people who have felt them. After an earthquake, individuals answer questions about what they felt during the quake, along with other questions regarding their location and activity.

Intensity measures the strength of shaking produced by the earthquake at a certain location. Intensity is determined from effects on people, human structures, and the natural environment.

The number of people who feel an earthquake is critical to determining intensity levels, and low intensity earthquakes generate fewer reports, making objective evaluation of shaking difficult.

Source: Seismological Society of America

The Vancouver: Nearby Georgia basin may amplify ground shaking from next quake

Multiple scenarios for earthquakes within the Georgia Basin underneath Vancouver indicate that earthquakes would be amplified. Credit: Sheri Molnar and Kim Olsen

Tall buildings, bridges and other long-period structures in Greater Vancouver may experience greater shaking from large (M 6.8 +) earthquakes than previously thought due to the amplification of surface waves passing through the Georgia basin, according to two studies published by the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (BSSA). The basin will have the greatest impact on ground motion passing over it from earthquakes generated south and southwest of Vancouver.

"For very stiff soils, current building codes don't include amplification of ground motion," said lead author Sheri Molnar, a researcher at the University of British Columbia. "While the building codes say there should not be any increase or decrease in ground motion, our results show that there could be an average amplification of up to a factor of three or four in Greater Vancouver."

The research provides the first detailed studies of 3D earthquake ground motion for a sedimentary basin in Canada. Since no large crustal earthquakes have occurred in the area since the installation of a local seismic network, these studies offer refined predictions of ground motion from large crustal earthquakes likely to occur.

Southwestern British Columbia is situated above the seismically active Cascadia subduction zone. A complex tectonic region, earthquakes occur in three zones: the thrust fault interface between the Juan de Fuca plate, which is sliding beneath the North America plate; within the over-riding North America plate; and within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate.

Molnar and her colleagues investigate the effect the three dimensional (3D) deep basin beneath Greater Vancouver has on the earthquake-generated waves that pass through it. The Georgia basin is one in a series of basins spanning form California to southern Alaska along the Pacific margin of the North America and is relatively wide and shallow. The basin is filled with sedimentary layers of silts, sands and glacial deposits.

While previous research suggested how approximately 100 meters of material near the surface would affect ground shaking, no studies had looked at the effect of the 3D basin structure on long period seismic waves.

To fill in that gap in knowledge, Molnar and colleagues performed numerical modeling of wave propagation, using various scenarios for both shallow quakes (5 km in depth) within the North America plate and deep quakes (40 -- 55 km in depth) within the Juan de Fuca subducting plate, the latter being the most common type of earthquake. The authors did not focus on earthquakes generated by a megathrust rupture of the Cascadia subduction zone, a scenario studied previously by co-author Kim Olsen of San Diego State University.

For these two studies, the authors modeled 10 scenario earthquakes for the subducting plate and 8 shallow crustal earthquakes within the North America plate, assuming rupture sites based on known seismicity. The computational analyses suggest the basin distorts the seismic radiation pattern -- how the energy moves through the basin -- and produces a larger area of higher ground motions. Steep basin edges excite the seismic waves, amplifying the ground motion.

The largest surface waves generated across Greater Vancouver are associated with earthquakes located approximately 80 km or more, south-southwest of the city, suggest the authors.

"The results were an eye opener," said Molnar. "Because of the 3D basin structure, there's greater hazard since it will amplify ground shaking. Now we have a grasp of how much the basin increases ground shaking for the most likely future large earthquakes."

In Greater Vancouver, there are more than 700 12-story and taller commercial and residential buildings, and large structures -- high-rise buildings, bridges and pipelines -- that are more affected by long period seismic waves, or long wavelength shaking. "That's where these results have impact," said Molnar.

Source: Seismological Society of America

Summary: Tall buildings, bridges and other long-period structures in Greater Vancouver may experience greater shaking from large earthquakes than previously thought due to the amplification of surface waves passing through the Georgia basin, according to two new studies. The basin will have the greatest impact on ground motion passing over it from earthquakes generated south and southwest of Vancouver.

The Building 'belt' offers cheap, quick repair of earthquake damage

A damaged building joint repaired with post tensioned metal straps and tested on a shaking table to the equivalent level of a magnitude 7 earthquake. Credit: University of Sheffield

Four years after the January 2010 earthquake, 145,000 people still remain homeless in Haiti. A cheap and simple technology to repair earthquake damaged buildings -- developed at the University of Sheffield -- could help to reduce these delays by quickly making buildings safe and habitable.

Recent tests showed that a damaged building repaired using the technique could withstand a major earthquake -- similar in scale and proximity to the buildings that collapsed during the Haiti earthquake.
The technology involves wrapping metal straps around each floor of the building, which are then tensioned either by hand or using compressed air tools. It is designed for use on reinforced concrete frame buildings -- a common construction technique around the world, including countries like Haiti. Unlike other repair methods, it does not require expensive materials or a high level of technical knowledge, making it ideal for use in the developing world.

Lead researcher, Professor Kypros Pilakoutas, explains: "The strapping works very much like a weight-lifter's belt, by keeping everything tightly compressed to reduce tension on the concrete columns of the structure.

Concrete works well under compression, but not when pulled under tension and this is why it has to be reinforced for use in construction. When the reinforcement is faulty or damaged, it can be very expensive to repair.

"Our method not only makes the building stable again very quickly, but it increases the building's ability to deform without breaking, making it more able to withstand further earthquake movement."
The team tested the technique on a full scale, two-storey building, built according to an old European standard which has inadequate reinforcing to withstand earthquakes. This construction is typical of many buildings in the developing world, as well as many Mediterranean buildings built before the 1980s.

The building was constructed on a specially designed 'shaking table' which can simulate ground movement caused by earthquakes. During the first test, the building was very near collapse following a small earthquake similar in scale to a magnitude 4 on the Richter scale having about 10000 times less energy than the Haiti earthquake.

The building was then repaired using the post-tensioned metal straps and retested. The researchers were unable to make the building fail during a major earthquake similar in scale to the magnitude 7 Haiti earthquake at the epicentre and stopped the test at that point.

Professor Pilakoutas hopes the new technology will not only speed up the response to major earthquakes, but could also prevent the damage happening in the first place. The cost of the materials for a typical small building column is about £20 and it would take a crew of two people around 2 hours to complete the strengthening. For a typical small dwelling having 6 columns, the seismic rehabilitation would cost around £200 and could be completed in a few days, rather than cost several thousand pounds and take months with other traditional rehabilitation techniques such as jacketing with steel plates or concrete.

"Ideally, governments shouldn't wait until a disaster happens, but should be identifying buildings at risk and taking steps to make them strong enough to withstand any future earthquakes," he says. "Because this method causes minimal disruption and is cheap to apply, it's ideal for bringing existing buildings up to standard -- both in the developing world and in earthquake risk areas in Europe as well."


Source: University of Sheffield

Summary: Four years after the January 2010 earthquake, 145,000 people still remain homeless in Haiti. A cheap and simple technology to repair earthquake damaged buildings could help to reduce these delays by quickly making buildings safe and habitable.

WATCH VIDEO