Facebook of the Planet Science

David Kramer, MSU Hannah Distinguished Professor in Photosynthesis and Bioenergetics, has created the Facebook of plant science. Courtesy of MSU

By building PhotosynQ – a handheld device with sensors and an online data-sharing and analysis platform – a team of Michigan State University researchers is creating the plant-science equivalent of Facebook.

Following the trail blazed by successful social media networks, the team is giving away patentable devices at a nominal fee, building an active global community of plant science enthusiasts and sharing all data collected from around the world.

The goal is to allow even citizen scientists to make research-quality measurements, said David Kramer, MSU Hannah Distinguished Professor in Photosynthesis and Bioenergetics.

“We’ve built a platform that everyone can access through their cell phones,” he said. “We want to create a community that sees a 12-year-old student in China ask a question about a drought-resistant plant. Then we hope that hundreds of people answer, and not only the student in China is able to grow sustainable crops, but also a farmer in Africa could benefit from those insights.”

One component of PhotosynQ is a handheld device that costs about $100, scans plants and collects a handful of key data points. Via a smartphone running Android, the data is transferred from the device to the researcher’s project page on the PhotosynQ platform.

Currently, there are about 20 research projects on the burgeoning network. As new data is collected, community members can observe the projects’ progression.

Projects range from one measuring the robustness and productivity of beans, to another monitoring the efficiency of photosynthesis. Collecting data on how well plants convert sunlight to energy can be derived from satellite images in a very limited way. To improve the data, it’s best to get on-the-ground observations as well. The more handheld devices used in the field to gather the data, the better.

PhotosynQ will enable local scientists, plant breeders and citizens to improve the productivity and security of crops in communities around the world. This low-cost approach of collecting samples from global sites could change how science has traditionally been conducted, said Greg Austic, who is leading the development in the Kramer lab.

“It’s critical that PhotosynQ stays open source,” he said. “We’re changing the model of moving new technology from academia to the world. We’re maximizing the data and building a community rather than maximizing profits.”

If only two people use the network, it’s worthless. If 2 million people join in, it’s priceless. It will be a snapshot of what’s happening in the plant world at this very moment. Successful breeding efforts, rapidly spreading diseases and other trends can be identified quicker, he added.

This nontraditional approach is indicative of Kramer’s unique lab. Soldering irons and circuit boards outnumber plants and petri dishes. Shelves are lined with electronic prototypes. The buzzing hive of nearly 40 students is a blend of biologists, programmers and engineers.

“Many times one of our biology students will come up with an idea and bounces it off some of the other students,” Kramer said. “The computer specialists write a program, and the electronics students build a prototype and a new technique is developed and used – sometimes in a single day.”

His lab is a microcosm of what he hopes he can create on a global scale; empower people with data and easy-to-use scientific instruments, and people will look at their world differently, he said.

Kramer is a professor in the College of Natural Science and the MSU-DOE Plant Research Laboratory. His research is funded in part by MSU AgBioResearch.

Source: MSU

‘Love, Rock and Revolution’ features legendary music photographer Jim Marshall’s work

Never-before-seen 1960s photographic work by legendary San Francisco rock and roll

photographer Jim Marshall (1936-2010) will be featured in “The Haight: Love, Rock and Revolution,” an exhibit opening Friday, Feb. 6, in the halls of UC Berkeley’s Graduate School of Journalism.

JimMarshallExhibit-410aThe show will run through May at the school’s Reva and David Logan Gallery of Documentary Photography at North Gate Hall, located on campus near the intersection of Hearst and Euclid avenues. It is free and open to the public.

The Center for Photography at the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism has joined with Marshall’s estate to launch the Jim Marshall Fellowships in Photography, with a goal of raising $500,000 to $1 million to  support the visual arts at the journalism school.

Marshall was widely known for his documentary photos of big-name musicians from the Beatles and Bob Dylan to Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Santana and the Rolling Stones, as well as Johnny Cash’s groundbreaking live concerts at Folsom and San Quentin prisons. His work appeared on more than 500 album covers and in magazines such as Rolling Stone.

Marshall’s photos also captured street life in San Francisco and New York, a Kentucky coal mining town’s despair and Mississippi civil rights demonstrations. He received an honorary Grammy lifetime achievement award posthumously in 2014, the only photographer to ever receive such an honor.

At the opening reception on Feb. 6, longtime San Francisco music critic and Marshall friend Joel Selvin and Amelia Davis, a photographer and Marshall assistant, will be on hand to discuss Marshall’s work.

The 6:30-8:30 p.m. event also will feature a psychedelic light show, in keeping with the popular rock programming of the 1960s and 1970s. In addition, free psychedelic posters resembling those made famous during that era by the Fillmore music hall in San Francisco will be given away at the reception, while they last.

The exhibit was curated by Ken Light, the Reva and David Logan Chair in Photojournalism.

The Center for Photography at the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism, founded in 1996, offers courses in hands-on photojournalism and social documentary photography. The center routinely exhibits world-class photographers and hosts programs with distinguished photojournalists.

For more information about the event, contact Julie Hirano at juliehirano@berkeley.edu.

For more details about the Jim Marshall Fellowships in Photography, contact Marlena Telvick at marlenatelvick@berkeley.edu.

Source: UC Berkeley

A French Chevalier for scholarly societal contributions

Professor Judith Butler receives the French Chevalier for her contributions in philosophy, ethics, political and literary theories from French Consul General Pauline Carmona in San Francisco.

Maxine Elliot Professor in the Department of Comparative Literature and Berkeley’s Program of Critical Theory, where she served as founding director, received the formal honor from Consul General Pauline Carmona at ceremonies in San Francisco. Butler was awarded the diploma of Chevalier of the Order of Arts and Letters from the French Cultural Ministry in 2013. This week she was pinned with the medal itself.

Professor Judith Butler receives the French Chevalier in the Order of Arts et Lettres for her contributions in philosophy, ethics, political and literary theories from French Consul General Pauline Carmona.

Professor Judith Butler receives the French Chevalier for her contributions in philosophy, ethics, political and literary theories from French Consul General Pauline Carmona in San Francisco.

Carmona noted at the award ceremony the strength of Butler’s links with French scholars and intellectuals and the profound impact her work has had on France’s society, especially in the fields of feminism and gender studies.

Butler is active in gender and sexual politics, human rights and anti-war politics, and serves on the advisory board of Jewish Voice for Peace. She was recently the recipient of the Andrew Mellon Award for Distinguished Academic Achievement in the Humanities (2009-13). She received the Adorno Prize from the city of Frankfurt (2012) in honor of her contributions to feminist and moral philosophy, as well as the Brudner Prize from Yale University for lifetime achievement in gay and lesbian studies.

She is the past recipient of several fellowships including Guggenheim, Rockefeller, Ford and American Council of Learned Societies, and was Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton and at the College des Hautes Etudes in Paris. She has received honorary degrees from Université Bordeaux-III, Université Paris-VII, Grinnell College, McGill University and the University of St. Andrews. In 2013 she was awarded the diploma of Chevalier of the Order of Arts and Letters from the French Cultural Ministry. In November 2014, Butler received an honorary degree from the Universite Fribourg in Switzerland.

She received her Ph.D. in philosophy from Yale University in 1984.

Source: UC Berkeley

The Power of the Past

If you grow up in the working class, neither love nor money can trump your blue-collar roots, a Duke sociologist has found.

Her study of couples from different social classes suggests that those who “marry up” still make life decisions based on their upbringing.

                             Cover of Streib book by Eric Ferreri, Duke News & Communications
                          Sociologist Jessi Streib’s book “The Past” is about class structure in marriages.

“Your social class never goes away,” says Jessi Streib, an assistant professor of sociology whose findings are revealed in her new book: The Power of the Past: Understanding Cross-Class Marriages. “It stays with you in terms of how you live your life. The class you’re born into sticks with you and shapes you, even when you marry into more money and a far more financially secure life.”

Streib’s findings derive from interviews she conducted with white, heterosexual Midwestern couples. She interviewed 32 couples in which one spouse came from a working class background, the other from the middle class. For comparison, she also interviewed 10 couples in which both spouses grew up in the middle class.

Streib defines working class as people raised by parents with high school educations; the middle class subjects were raised by college-educated parents.

Her findings run contrary to the notion held by many scholars that strivers can outrun a difficult childhood by getting a college degree and good-paying middle-class job.

While the findings suggest that a middle class upbringing isn’t required to excel in the American workplace, those upwardly mobile people from working class roots may still miss out on opportunities if they can’t or don’t subscribe to the unspoken norms of middle class culture, Streib notes.

Streib found that couples from different classes held onto their own, firmly-rooted beliefs regarding money and parenting, often negotiating fervently with each other over the proper amount of career planning and nurturing of children. Should children be left to grow and discover on their own, or should goals and schedules be set for them?

“Those are the sorts of tiny battles cross-class couples have all the time,” Streib said. “These are not insurmountable obstacles, but they are certainly common and consistent.”

Source: Duke Univesity

Volunteers can now help scientists seek Ebola cure in their (computer's) spare time

The Scripps Research Institute’s Professor Erica Ollmann Saphire is leading the new effort against Ebola. Credit: Photo courtesy of The Scripps Research Institute.

Although some medical therapies show promise as treatments for Ebola, scientists are still looking urgently for a definitive cure.

For the first time, anyone with access to a computer or Android-based mobile device can help scientists perform this critical research -- no financial contribution, passport or PhD necessary. In fact, volunteers can be asleep, traveling or on a coffee break when they help researchers search for an Ebola cure.

Beginning today, anyone can download a safe and free app that will put their devices to work when the machines would otherwise be idle. With their collective processing power, the computers will form a virtual supercomputer to help The Scripps Research Institute (TSRI) screen millions of chemical compounds to identify new drug leads for treating Ebola. 

Meanwhile, the devices will remain fully available for normal use by their owners.

This citizen science effort is possible through a partnership with IBM's (NYSE: IBM) World Community Grid, which has been making similar data-driven health and sustainability initiatives possible for 10 years as a free, philanthropic service to the science community. 

The "Outsmart Ebola Together" volunteer computing project announced today is being run by the Ollmann Saphire laboratory at TSRI, which has mapped the structures and vulnerabilities of the proteins comprising the Ebola virus.

The best candidate compounds that emerge from this crowdsourced effort will be physically tested in the lab to pinpoint their effectiveness against real virus infection. The most promising compounds will then be modified to perform even better, at lower concentrations, and with fewer side effects. Subsequent drug trials could ultimately lead to an approved medicine.

Crowdsourcing this citizen science effort will dramatically accelerate the process of identifying a cure. The speed and scale of a drug search is essential, as this particularly lethal disease continues to spread and mutate. Once believed to be less of a widespread public health risk than other communicable diseases because of its existence in mainly isolated regions, Ebola now carries a higher risk of spreading farther because people are more mobile than ever before.

"Our molecular images of the Ebola virus are like enemy reconnaissance," said Dr. Erica Ollmann Saphire of TSRI, one of the largest private biomedical research institutes in the United States. "These images show us where the virus is vulnerable and the targets we need to hit. In the Outsmart Ebola Together project, we will be able to harness World Community 

Grid's virtual supercomputing power to find the drugs we need to aim at these targets."

IBM's World Community Grid has successfully run other projects that search for drug candidates for both high- and low-profile diseases -- such as AIDS, cancer, malaria, Dengue fever, and influenza. It has enabled multiple breakthroughs, such as helping the Chiba Cancer Center in Japan discover seven new drug candidates to fight childhood neuroblastoma. The IBM-managed program also hosts projects that have led to important scientific advances in renewable energy and water purification technology.

"It is a privilege to partner with The Scripps Research Institute to advance the process of identifying an Ebola cure," said Stanley S. Litow, IBM's vice president of Corporate Citizenship and president of the IBM International Foundation. "It is only fitting that IBM's World Community Grid 10-year anniversary of accomplishments coincide with the launch of perhaps one of the most critical scientific and humanitarian efforts."

Conceived and managed by IBM, and powered by IBM's reliable and secure SoftLayer cloud technology, World Community Grid provides computing power to scientists by harnessing the unused, surplus cycle time of volunteers' computers and mobile devices. The software receives, completes, and returns small computational assignments to scientists. The combined power contributed by hundreds of thousands of volunteers has created one of the fastest virtual supercomputers on the planet, advancing scientific work by hundreds of years.

Nearly three million computers and mobile devices used by more than 680,000 people and 460 institutions from 80 countries have contributed virtual supercomputing power for vitally important projects on World Community Grid over the last 10 years. Since the program's inception, World Community Grid volunteers have powered more than 20 research projects, donating more than one million years of computing time to scientific research, and enabled important scientific advances in health and sustainability. IBM invites researchers to submit research project proposals to receive this free resource, and invites members of the public to donate their unused computing power to these efforts at worldcommunitygrid.org.

TSRI also invites members of the public to support Dr. Saphire's crowdfunding campaign at www.crowdrise.com/CUREEBOLA to secure resources needed to analyze the enormous volume of data generated by Outsmart Ebola Together.

The software used for screenings in the Outsmart Ebola Together project is called AutoDock and AutoDock VINA, developed by the Olson laboratory at TSRI.

World Community Grid is enabled by software developed in 2002 by Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing (BOINC) at the University of California, Berkeley and with support from the National Science Foundation. The BOINC project choreographs the technical aspects of volunteer computing.

Source: Scripps Research Institute

The economy of bitcoins: New ways to study social action on markets

ETH's researchers decipher the dynamics behind the cryptocurrency Bitcoin.
Credit: © ulchik74 / Fotolia

Anyone who strolls around the Kreuzberg district of Berlin, can't help but notice them -- the small signs on the doors of shops and cafes "Bitcoins accepted." Customers pay for their shirt or their cappuccino with their Smartphone instead of with bank notes or credit cards. The digital currency Bitcoin makes all this possible.

"The image of Bitcoin has changed fundamentally," explains David Garcia, a post-doctoral researcher with the Chair of Systems Design held by Professor Frank Schweitzer. "Bitcoins used to be the reserve of hackers and computer nerds. Today, hipsters pay for drinks with them and they are accepted in the online shops of large companies." Garcia, together with his colleagues Claudio Tessone, Pavlin Mavrodiev and Nicolas Perony, has just published a study on the social dynamics of the Bitcoin economy in the Journal of the Royal Society: Interface.

Internet activity determines exchange rates

For research the success of the digital currency (see box) is a stroke of luck as all data on every transaction carried out in Bitcoin are available in anonymised form on the Internet. Consequently, Garcia and his colleagues are able to study the Bitcoin economy using corresponding algorithms. This idea saw the light of day when they noticed that the 50,000-fold market value increase in the digital currency in just three and a half years went hand in hand with a 10,000 percent increase in Google searches for Bitcoin. The researchers hypothesise that the increase in the value of Bitcoins is markedly accelerated by activities on the Internet, in particular the search for information and interaction in the social media.

To test their hypothesis the researchers examined four different socio-economic parameters: the development of the Bitcoin user base, the price developments of the currency over time, the search for information about Bitcoin on Google and in Wikipedia (more than six million inquiries) and the exchange of information about Bitcoin on Twitter (almost seven million Tweets). In fact, over the past three the researchers established years major correlations between price developments, the number of new Bitcoin users, searches on the Internet and Tweets.

At the same time, they discovered two positive feedback loops which basically reproduced the laws of the "analogous" economy. The growing popularity of Bitcoins on the Internet leads to growing demand which, in turn, encourages activity in the social media. This all results in a higher price for Bitcoins. The second feedback concerns the user base: the more users become part of the Bitcoin transaction network, the higher the price because Bitcoins are not issued in line with demand but in an automated fashion at regular intervals. This means it is possible to calculate the available amount at any time. One negative feedback is, however, surprising. Prior to a major slump in the price of the currency, there was a dramatic increase in Bitcoin activity on the Internet. "Big changes in Internet and social media activities lead to substantial price fluctuations," comments Nicolas Perony, co-author of the article.

Understanding markets and social dynamics

Perony is convinced that the quantitative analysis of social phenomena on the Internet has major potential. "With digital currencies we can observe aspects of the economy that we didn't have access to with cash. This gives us greater understanding of how markets actually function." According to the authors, the methodology described in the article could be applied to other areas in society, too. The Bitcoin mining network, which issues the currency, already harnesses computing power today which is three hundred times bigger than that of the 500 most powerful supercomputers together. "The big question is how such a high-performance system could be used for collaborative activities which go beyond the production of money," comments Perony. One possibility would be, for instance, collaborative research in a global network or the decentralised ownership of specific goods managed by a global network. Bitcoms do not belong to anyone. Buyers merely acquire the right to use a specific amount of them. This study already outlines today the tools for accurately quantifying and analysing the social dynamics of collaborative systems of this kind in the future.

The meteoric rise of Bitcoin

The Bitcoin success story began in 2008 with an article about an alternative, digital currency published under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. In July 2010 Bitcoins were traded for the first time on the Internet exchange Mt. Gox at a rate of US$ 0.06 for 1 Bitcoin. The total value of all Bitcoins was US$ 277,000. By the end of 2013 the market value of all issued Bitcoins had climbed to more than US$ 14 billion whereby during spikes more than US$ 1,000 were paid for one Bitcoin. Today, over four million people use the digital currency. 

Bitcoins are traded in euros, dollars and in Chinese renminbi. Unlike conventional currencies there is no central bank for Bitcoins which has a monopoly for printing money. New Bitcoins are generated by what is known as mining via a global computer network -- currently at a rate of 25 Bitcoins every ten minutes. Transactions are likewise verified and carried out on this network. Even the bankruptcy of important Bitcoin trading exchanges and negative headlines about money laundering and drug purchases on the Internet were not able to undermine confidence in the currency. A few days ago the PC giant Dell announced that it will henceforth accept Bitcoins as payment for products in its online shop.

Source: ETH Zurich

Three out of every four European banks fails in handicap accessibility of their websites

"The results reflect that only 26% of the banks show acceptable levels on their websites, and in more than 36% of cases analysed, serious obstacles to accessibility were found," Ana Belén Martínez, one of the researchers participating in the study, explained.

Three out of every four European banks fails in the accessibility of their websites Researchers from the University of Oviedo (Spain) have analysed the websites of nearly 50 banks from the EU to check whether any user, even if disabled, has equal access. The results show that this right is not fulfilled in 74% of cases, and therefore they demand greater interest from financial entities in this technological and social problem.

Web accessibility is the collection of technological innovations that guarantee fair access to the web for all users, regardless of disability or the device used. However, these facilities do not appear on the majority of web pages for European banks, according to an analysis carried out by computer specialists and economists from the University of Oviedo, Spain.
"The results reflect that only 26% of the banks show acceptable levels on their websites, and in more than 36% of cases analysed, serious obstacles to accessibility were found," Ana Belén Martínez, one of the researchers participating in the study, explained.

Javier De Andres, another of the authors, highlighted the consequences of the lack of accessibility: "People with disabilities find themselves with additional obstacles at the time of accessing electronic banking services, therefore often having to carry out certain steps in person, with the difficulties and discrimination that this implies."

The researchers offered some solutions to solve the problem: "The websites of the banks should provide text alternatives for all of their visual and auditory content, use units that facilitate understanding of style sheets, include input devices alternative to using the mouse, and clearly identify the language used on their website."

In order to carry out the study, published by the journal Information Processing & Management, a database made up of 49 banks from the EU -- 8 of them Spanish -- was used, whose actions form part of the Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 stock index.

The authors have identified three factors that implement web accessibility. The first is operational, because of its contribution to the efficiency of the bank operations. "Those financial entities that want to improve a poor performance can adopt these applications, within a range of corrective measures," Martínez said.

Another factor is the size, in the way that the bigger banks have bigger information technology departments that provide a competitive advantage to adopt this technology, in relation to small banks. The third factor is that web accessibility can also be understood as part of the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) of the entity, that is to say, its active and voluntary contribution towards social, economic and environmental improvement.

According to the results, neither the operational factors nor the size seem to have exercised a significant influence on the adoption of this technology by European banks. Regarding the CSR strategy, the results show a paradox whereby those less engaged with social corporate responsibility are precisely those that have more accessible websites.

"One possible reason is that the banks that do not appear in the indices that demonstrate high CSR commitment try to overcome this problem by participating in activities such as the adoption of web accessibility," Martínez pointed out.

The researchers concluded by indicating that neither web accessibility nor the advantages that it offers to the organisations are sufficiently known yet, and thus encourage the banks to improve in this sphere in order to guarantee fair access to all clients.

Source: Plataforma SINC

Many older adults still homebound after 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake

2011 Great East Japan Earthquake

A new study, published online in the journal Age and Ageing, shows that the homebound status of adults over the age of 65 in the aftermath of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake is still a serious public health concern. Of 2,327 older adults surveyed, approximately 20% were found to be homebound.

A team of researchers led by Naoki Kondo of the University of Tokyo's School of Public Health studied data from the city of Rikuzentakata, an area that was seriously damaged by the disaster. Of its total population of 23,302 before the events of 2011, 1,773 people died or are still missing. Of 7,730 houses, 3,368 (43.6%) were affected with 3,159 "completely destroyed." Much of the population had been concentrated in flat coastal areas, and since the community infrastructure was totally shattered, many people who lost their houses insisted on moving to areas in the mountains.

This study used home-visit interviews with 2,327 adults over 65 years old (1027 men; 1300 women), and was carried out between August 2012 and October 2013. Interviewers gathered information of current morbidity, socio-economic status, health behaviour (diet, smoking, and alcohol intake), frequency of going out, and social support. 19.6% of men and 23.2% of women were shown to be homebound, defined as only leaving the house every 4 or more days. Of those older adults who were classified as homebound, around 40% also had no contact with neighbours.

Information was also obtained on the locations of grocery stores, convenience stores, and shopping centres from the online community directory database in August 2012. Information on shopper bus stops and hawker sites was provided by a disaster support team, and the team also collated road network data. This geographical analysis indicated that distances to retail stores was associated with the risk of people being homebound.

Lead author Naoki Kondo says: "This study has important implications for public health, especially in the setting of post-disaster community reconstruction. First, community diagnoses in a post-disaster setting should cover the built environment, including access to shopping facilities. Second, to prevent older victims of a disaster such as the Great East Japan Earthquake being homebound, it is clearly essential to provide access to the facilities that fulfil their daily needs.

"Given the findings of this study, such access could be increased by the private sector, suggesting the importance of public-private partnerships for post-disaster reconstruction."

Key messages:

• The homebound status of older victims of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake is a matter of public health concern
• Geographical analysis indicated that distances to retail stores was associated with the risk of people being homebound
• Hawker and shopping bus services contributed to improved access, providing more opportunities for going out

Source: Oxford University Press (OUP)

Study of Chilean quake shows potential for future earthquake

The Iquique earthquake took place on the northern portion of the subduction zone formed when the Nazca tectonic plate slides under the South American plate. Credit: USGS

Near real-time analysis of the April 1 earthquake in Iquique, Chile, showed that the 8.2 event occurred in a gap on the fault unruptured since 1877 and that the April event was not what the scientists had expected, according to an international team of geologists.

"We assumed that the area of the 1877 earthquake would eventually rupture, but all indications are that this 8.2 event was not the 8.8 event we were looking for," said Kevin P. Furlong, professor of geophysics, Penn State. "We looked at it to see if this was the big one."

But according to the researchers, it was not. Seismologists expect that areas of faults will react the same way over and over. However, the April earthquake was about nine times less energetic than the one in 1877 and was incapable of releasing all the stress on the fault, leaving open the possibility of another earthquake.

The Iquique earthquake took place on the northern portion of the subduction zone formed when the Nazca tectonic plate slides under the South American plate. This is one of the longest uninterrupted plate boundaries on the planet and the site of many earthquakes and volcanos. The 8.2 earthquake was foreshadowed by a systematic sequence of foreshocks recorded at 6.0, 6.5, 6.7 and 6.2 with each foreshock triggering the next until the main earthquake occurred.

These earthquakes relieved the stresses on some parts of the fault. Then the 8.2 earthquake relieved more stress, followed by a series of aftershocks in the range of 7.7. While the aftershocks did fill in some of the gaps left by the 8.2 earthquake, the large earthquake and aftershocks could not fill in the entire gap where the fault had not ruptured in a very long time. That area is unruptured and still under stress.
The foreshocks eased some of the built up stress on 60 to 100 miles of fault, and the main shock released stress on about 155 miles, but about 155 miles of fault remain unchanged, the researchers report today (Aug. 13) in Nature.

"There can still be a big earthquake there," said Furlong. "It didn't release the total hazard, but it told us something about this large earthquake area. That an 8.8 rupture doesn't always happen."
The researchers were able to do this analysis in near real time because of the availability of large computing power and previously laid groundwork.

The computing power allowed researchers to model the fault more accurately. In the past, subduction zones were modeled as if they were on a plane, but the plate that is subducting curves underneath the other plate creating a 3-dimensional fault line. The researchers used a model that accounted for this curving and so more accurately recreated the stresses on the real geology at the fault.

"One of the things the U.S. Geological Survey and we have been doing is characterizing the major tectonic settings," said Furlong. "So when an earthquake is imminent, we don't need a lot of time for the background."

In essence, they are creating a library of information about earthquake faults and have completed the first level, a general set of information on areas such as Japan, South America and the Caribbean. Now they are creating the levels of north and south Japan or Chile, Peru and Ecuador.
Knowing where the old earthquake occurred, how large it was and how long ago it happened, the researchers could look at the foreshocks, see how much stress they relieved and anticipate, at least in a small way, what would happen.

"This is what we need to do in the future in near real time for decision makers," said Furlong.

Source: Penn State

Storm-triggered landslides: Examining causes of devastating debris flow

Storm-triggered landslides cause loss of life, property damage, and landscape alterations. For instance, the remnants of Hurricane Camille in 1969 caused 109 deaths in central Virginia, after 600 mm of rain fell in mountainous terrain in 6 hours. More recently, on 8 August 2010, a rainstorm-induced landslide devastated the Chinese county of Zhouqu, causing more than 1000 deaths. A new modeling study by Ren examines the multiple factors, both natural and human caused, that came together to produce this event. The triad of storm-triggered landslides is geological condition, surface loading and vegetation roots, and extreme precipitation.

Extreme precipitation can be explained by three factors: low-level moisture buildup, conditional instability, and a lifting mechanism. When several factors (e.g., El Niño years, hurricane remnants, lifting mechanisms (e.g., orography, cold fronts, jets, and differential heating from land cover contrast), and weather pattern phase-lock) work in synergy in a region, extreme precipitation may occur.

Using a multiple-phase scalable and extensible geofluid model, the author considered geological features of the region, as well as an earthquake, drought, deforestation, and topsoil erosion before the triggering storm. Previously, drought conditions created cracks and crevices in the surface; these cracks and crevices were deepened by the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake.

Another key factor in setting up the conditions for the landslide was human-induced deforestation and topsoil erosion, the study found. The results "underscore the urgency for a high priority program of re-vegetation of Zhouqu County, without which the region will remain exposed to future disastrous, progressive bulking type landslides," the author reports.

Source: Wiley

The Personal resiliency paramount for future disasters

A mayo Clinic researcher says individuals need to build disaster readiness and resiliency in order to better recover from the effects of earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires and other natural disasters. Those who prepare well for disasters are more likely to have a sense of spiritual and emotional well-being and be satisfied with their life. Those findings appear in the journal Health and Quality of Life Outcomes.

Health scientist and geologist Monica Gowan, Ph.D., says how well people are prepared for adversity through the presence of meaning and purpose in their lives can play a positive role in how well they manage the uncertainties of disaster risk and recover from devastating experiences to regain health and quality of life.

"Even prior to the 2010-2014 New Zealand earthquakes and 2011 Japan tsunami, we recognized a need to explore how well-being was related to evacuation preparedness for future earthquake and tsunami disasters, Our findings are now relevant to any disaster experience, whether it's an earthquake or tsunami in the Pacific or a tornado in the American Midwest," says Dr. Gowan. She says if someone consciously cares about his or her well-being and that of others, and is aware and engaged enough to act on that basis, they have a stronger chance of being better off. She and her colleagues say this is the first scientific study of personal resilience and evacuation readiness prior to large disasters.

How to be resilient
* Decide you care enough to act. Your sense of personal agency, your desire to make choices and act, will be one of your greatest health assets.

* Know your resources. What are your greatest strengths? Physically? Mentally? Emotionally? Socially? Spiritually? Identify what you can do well and what helps you be well, and tuck this information in your mental "resilience toolkit."

* Optimize what you have. Creatively think about how, by combining two or more of your top resources or strengths, you can uncover new solutions to challenges.

* Imagine yourself acting. How might you respond when you're in crisis? Make a plan for how you can keep growing your resources and how you can deploy them in emergencies.

* Know your evacuation needs. If you had to flee or be displaced from home, what would be most essential for you? All disasters are local -- find out what your community recommends for an evacuation plan and go-kit. Then check your checklist and kit too.

*Just Do It. Act on your plans and communicate them to others. Let nature be natural. If the cause is natural, then nature is doing what nature does. Protect yourself and remember that everything is temporary.

"Along with the robust survey findings we obtained from our random sample of 695 adults, many people in the study shared anecdotes about why they were preparing for disaster," says Dr. Gowan. "Profoundly personal reasons were a common theme, whether due to their own vulnerabilities and desire to survive, to concern for a loved one, being part of a community, or wanting to serve some other greater good or higher purpose. A number had survived a prior disaster, with experiences ranging from the Holocaust to 9/11, and nearly every type of natural disaster. They all seemed to have found meaningful ways to transcend their unthinkable experiences."

The researchers say the study has far-reaching implications. Growing populations and global travel make everyone vulnerable to disaster, and so the need for resilience is universal.

Source: Mayo Clinic

The Disaster planning: Risk assessment vital to development of mitigation plans

Wildfires and flooding affect many more people in the USA than earthquakes and landslide and yet the dread, the perceived risk, of the latter two is much greater than for those hazards that are more frequent and cause greater loss of life. Research published in the International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, suggests that a new paradigm for risk assessment is needed so that mitigation plans in the face of natural disasters can be framed appropriately by policy makers and those in the emergency services.

Maura Knutson (nee Hurley) and Ross Corotis of the University of Colorado, Boulder, explain that earlier efforts for incorporating a sociological perspective and human risk perception into hazard-mitigation plans, commonly used equivalent dollar losses from natural hazard events as the statistic by which to make decisions. Unfortunately, this fails to take into consideration how people view natural hazards, the team reports. Moreover, this can lead to a lack of public support and compliance with emergency plans when disaster strikes and lead to worse outcomes in all senses.

The researchers have therefore developed a framework that combines the usual factors for risk assessment, injuries, deaths and economic and collateral loss with the human perception of the risks associated with natural disasters. The framework includes risk perception by graphing natural hazards against "dread" and "familiarity." These two variables are well known to social psychologists as explaining the greatest variability in an individual's perception of risk, whether considering earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, flooding, avalanche, even volcanic activity. "Understanding how the public perceives the risk for various natural hazards can assist decision makers in developing and communicating policy decisions," the team says.

The higher the perceived risk of a natural disaster, the more people want to see that risk reduced and that means seeing their tax dollars spent on mitigation and preparation. For example, far more money is spent on reducing earthquake risk than on reducing the risk from wildfires, perhaps because the perceived risk is much greater, even though both will cause significant losses of life and property. The team's new framework for risk assessment will act as an aid in decision making for these types of situations as well as perhaps even offering a way to give members of the public a clearer understanding of actual risk rather than perceived risk.

Source: Inderscience Publishers

The Australian tsunami database reveals threat to continent

Australia's coastline has been struck by up to 145 possible tsunamis since prehistoric times, causing deaths previously unreported in the scientific literature, a UNSW study has revealed.

The largest recorded inundation event in Australia was caused by an earthquake off Java in Indonesia on 17 July 2006, which led to a tsunami that reached up to 7.9 metres above sea level on land at Steep Point in Western Australia.

The continent was also the site of the oldest known tsunami in the world -- an asteroid impact that occurred 3.47 billion years ago in what is now the Pilbara district of Western Australia.

Details of the 145 modern day and prehistoric events are outlined in a revised Australian tsunami database, which has been extensively updated by UNSW researchers, Professor James Goff and Dr Catherine Chagué-Goff.

"Our research has led to an almost three-fold increase in the number of events identified -- up from 55 in 2007. NSW has the highest number of tsunamis in the database, with 57, followed by Tasmania with 40, Queensland with 26 and Western Australia with 23," says Professor Goff, of the UNSW School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences.

"Historical documents indicate that up to 11 possible tsunami-related deaths have occurred in Australia since 1883. This is remarkable, because our tsunami-prone neighbour, New Zealand, has only one recorded death."

Professor Goff and Dr Chagué-Goff, who also works at the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, scoured scientific papers, newspaper reports, historical records and other tsunami databases to update the 2007 Australian database.

"And it is still incomplete. Much more work needs to be done, especially to identify prehistoric events and those on the east coast. Our goal is to better understand the tsunami hazard to Australia and the region. The geographical spread of events and deaths suggests the east coast faces the most significant risk," says Professor Goff.

The results are published in the journal Progress in Physical Geography.
The country's largest tsunami had been listed in 2007 as one that hit Western Australia following an earthquake off Sumba Island in Indonesia on 19 August 1977, but this rating was based on wrong information about its wave height.

Giant wave heights of about 13 metres -- bigger than those of the current record-holding event in 2006 -- have also been attributed to a possible tsunami on 8 April 1911 in Warrnambool in Victoria, but no hard evidence is available as yet to back this up.

The study identified three prehistoric events that had an impact across the whole of the South West Pacific Ocean: an asteroid impact 2.5 million years ago and large earthquakes about 2900 years ago and in the mid-15th Century.

Source: University of New South Wales

The Urbanization exposes French cities to greater seismic risk

French researchers have looked into data mining to develop a method for extracting information on the vulnerability of cities in regions of moderate risk, creating a proxy for assessing the probable resilience of buildings and infrastructure despite incomplete seismic inventories of buildings. The research exposes significant vulnerability in regions that have experienced an 'explosion of urbanization.'

"Considering that the seismic hazard is stable in time, we observe that the seismic risk comes from the rapid development of urbanization, which places at the same site goods and people exposed to hazard" said Philippe Gueguen, co-author and senior researcher at Université Joseph Fourier in Grenoble, France. The paper appears today in the journal Seismological Research Letters (SRL).

Local authorities rely on seismic vulnerability assessments to estimate the probable damage on an overall scale (such as a country, region or town) and identify the most vulnerable building categories that need reinforcement. These assessments are costly and require detailed understanding of how buildings will respond to ground motion.

Old structures, designed before current seismic building codes, abound in France, and there is insufficient information about how they will respond during an earthquake, say authors. The last major earthquake in France, which is considered to have moderate seismic hazard, was the 1909 magnitude 6 Lambesc earthquake, which killed 42 people and caused millions of euros of losses in the southeastern region.

The authors relied on the French national census for basic descriptions of buildings in Grenoble, a city of moderate seismic hazard, to create a vulnerability proxy, which they validated in Nice and later tested for the historic Lambesc earthquake.

The research exposed the effects of the urbanization and urban concentrations in areas prone to seismic hazard.

"In seismicity regions similar to France, seismic events are rare and are of low probability. With urbanization, the consequences of characteristic events, such as Lambesc, can be significant in terms of structural damage and fatalities," said Gueguen. "These consequences are all the more significant because of the moderate seismicity that reduces the perception of risk by local authorities."

If the 1909 Lambesc earthquake were to happen now, write the authors, the region would suffer serious consequences, including damage to more than 15,000 buildings. They equate the likely devastation to that observed after recent earthquakes of similar sizes in L'Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand.

Source: Seismological Society of America

The Activity more than location affects perception of earthquakes

Scientists rely on the public's reporting of ground shaking to characterize the intensity of ground motion produced by an earthquake. How accurate and reliable are those perceptions?

A new study by Italian researchers suggests that a person's activity at the time of the quake influences their perception of shaking more than their location. Whether a person is at rest or walking plays a greater role in their perception of ground motion than whether they were asleep on the first or sixth floor of a building. People in motion had the worst perception.

"People are like instruments, more or less sensitive," said Paola Sbarra, co-author and researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in Rome, Italy. "A great amount of data and proper statistical analysis allowed us to make a fine-tuning of different conditions for a better interpretation of earthquake effects," said Sbarra.

The paper, co-authored by colleagues Patrizia Tosi and Valerio de Rubeis, is published today in the March issue of the Seismological Research Letters (SRL).

Sbarra and colleagues sought to analyze two variables -- how an observer's "situation" and "location" influenced their perception in order to improve the characterization of low macroseismic intensities felt near small earthquakes or far from larger ones. Contrary to their findings, the current European macroseismic scale, which is the basis for evaluating how strongly an earthquake is felt, considers location the stronger indicator for defining intensity.

The authors analyzed data submitted to "Hai-sentito-il-terremoto?," which is similar to the U.S. Geological Survey's "Did You Feel It?" website that analyzes information about earthquakes from people who have felt them. After an earthquake, individuals answer questions about what they felt during the quake, along with other questions regarding their location and activity.

Intensity measures the strength of shaking produced by the earthquake at a certain location. Intensity is determined from effects on people, human structures, and the natural environment.

The number of people who feel an earthquake is critical to determining intensity levels, and low intensity earthquakes generate fewer reports, making objective evaluation of shaking difficult.

Source: Seismological Society of America

The Outsmarting nature during disasters: Instead of winging it, planners need to think carefully about costs and benefits

Natural Disasters

The dramatic images of natural disasters in recent years, including hurricanes Katrina and Sandy and the Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami, show that nature, not the people preparing for hazards, often wins the high-stakes game of chance.

"We're playing a high-stakes game against nature without thinking about what we're doing," geophysicist Seth Stein of Northwestern University said. "We're mostly winging it instead of carefully thinking through the costs and benefits of different strategies. Sometimes we overprepare, and sometimes we underprepare."

Stein will discuss his research in a presentation titled "How Much Natural Hazard Mitigation is Enough?" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in Chicago. His presentation is part of the symposium "Hazards: What Do We Build For?" to be held Feb. 17.

Stein is the William Deering Professor of Geological Sciences in Northwestern's Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences. He is the author of a new book, "Playing Against Nature: Integrating Science and Economics to Mitigate Natural Hazards in an Uncertain World" (Wiley, 2014) and the book "Disaster Deferred: A New View of Earthquake Hazards in the New Madrid Seismic Zone" (Columbia University Press, 2010).

Sometimes nature surprises us when an earthquake, hurricane or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expected. In other cases, nature outsmarts us, doing great damage despite expensive mitigation measures or causing us to divert limited resources to mitigate hazards that are overestimated.

"To do better we need to get smarter," Stein said. "This means thoughtfully tackling the tough questions about how much natural hazard mitigation is enough. Choices have to be made in a very uncertain world."

Stein's talk will use general principles and case studies to explore how communities can do better by taking an integrated view of natural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevant geoscience, engineering, economics and policy formulation separately.

Some of the tough questions include:

• How should a community allocate its budget between measures that could reduce the effect of future natural disasters and many other applications, some of which could do more good? For example, how to balance making schools earthquake resistant with hiring teachers to improve instruction?
• Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods or to prevent development in the areas at risk?
• Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake resistant or by using the funds for patient care?

The choice is difficult because although science has learned a lot about natural hazards, Stein says, our ability to predict the future is much more limited than often assumed. Much of the problem comes from the fact that formulating effective natural hazard policy involves combining science, economics and risk analysis to analyze a problem and explore costs and benefits of different options in situations where the future is very uncertain.

Because mitigation policies are typically chosen without such analysis -- often by a government mandate that does not consider the costs to the affected communities -- the results are often disappointing.


Source: Northwestern University
Summary: The dramatic images of natural disasters, including hurricanes Katrina and Sandy and the Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami, show that nature, not the people preparing for hazards, often wins the high-stakes game of chance. In a recent presentation, a geophysicist uses general principles and case studies to explore how communities can do better by taking an integrated view of natural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevant geoscience, engineering, economics and policy formulation separately.