Meteorology meets metrology: Climate research high up in the clouds

View along HALO's wing (with the aerosol instruments) above the Amazon rainforest.
Credit: Buchholz/PTB

Barely has the research aircraft HALO entered the kilometre-high clouds towering above the Brazilian rainforest than the researchers find themselves in a complete haze, but they can rely on the measuring instruments that are working at full capacity. HAI -- a new, highly accurate hygrometer of the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) -- is aboard. The shooting star among hygrometers has been developed only recently by metrologists (metrology = the science of measurement) especially for use on board aircraft and in the clouds, but it has already been used in four research campaigns and has already clocked up more than 300 hours of active use. It is the only device worldwide that can determine precisely and simultaneously how much of the water present in the atmosphere is in the form of vapour, condensation, droplets or ice.

These data help us understand natural and anthropogenic cloud formation processes and how they influence the climate. HAI is robust enough for field use at strongly varying temperatures and pressures and it is also coupled to the international humidity scale. Furthermore, it requires no time-consuming calibration. Its unique features combine applied climate research with metrology's most demanding requirements.

HAI is an acronym that stands for Hygrometer for Atmospheric Investigations. Its latest assignment (within the scope of the ACRIDICON-CHUVA mission) took it on a large-scale expedition in which approx. 60 scientists from Germany, Israel and Brazil were involved. On board HALO, one of the most modern measurement aircraft for atmospheric research -- operated by the Deutsches Luft- und Raumfahrtzentrum (DLR -- the national aeronautics and space research centre of the Federal Republic of Germany) -- HAI again and again flew into the clouds rising above the Amazon rainforest to collect samples. The researchers wanted to find out, among other things, which influence air pollution above cities or slash-and-burn areas have on the formation of clouds.

Water is the most important greenhouse gas and plays various roles in climate development. Clouds shade and cool down the surface of Earth; at the same time, they act as an insulation layer, keeping the terrestrial thermal radiation from escaping into space. The total global water cycle is based on the humidity present in the air heating up and cooling down again. 

Furthermore, humidity values serve as a correction coefficient in many other atmospheric measurements. Water is the most influential greenhouse gas, this is a fact. But putting a figure on its influence in order to set up models on climate development is a very difficult task. Depending on how high the clouds are as well as on their exact composition (they can consist of vapour, droplets and ice in varying amounts), they can have very diverse effects. Also, the measurement of the different phases of water is a complex task as its state of matter may already be influenced decisively the moment the sample is taken: for example, water vapour can already condensate to droplets on its way to the measuring instrument due to cooling while the sample is being collected.

Scientists from PTB have solved this problem by means of the HAI multi-phase water sensor. HAI simultaneously determines how much water vapour and how much condensed water is present in the air; a robust, open and aerodynamic measuring cell located outside the aircraft body directly measures the gaseous water vapour content of the air flowing through it. Another two-channel measuring unit is located inside the aircraft, at the end of a heated sample collection tube where two sensors working independently of each other measure the total water content of the sample. The difference between the total water content measured and the result of the measurement carried out in the gaseous phase allow the content of condensed water to be determined simultaneously.

HAI is based on a special variant of TDLAS (Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy) which is self-calibrating. The previously required time-consuming calibration, which was excessively difficult to carry out accurately and frequently enough in the field, has, thus, become obsolete. In addition, HAI, in combination with HALO, is the first airborne fast hygrometer in use that is directly traced back to the metrological humidity scale. Contrary to most other hygrometers, it provides results with low and clearly defined measurement uncertainty, in accordance with strict metrological requirements.

Source: Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB)

Reshaping the horse through millennia: Sequencing reveals genes selected by humans in domestication

A man catches domestic Mongolian horses with a lasso in Khomiin Tal, Mongolia. Credit: Copyright: Ludovic Orlando.

Whole genome sequencing of modern and ancient horses unveils the genes that have been selected by humans in the process of domestication through the latest 5,500 years, but also reveals the cost of this domestication. A new study led by the Centre for GeoGenetics at the University of Copenhagen, in collaboration with scientists from 11 international universities, reports that a significant part of the genetic variation in modern domesticated horses could be attributed to interbreeding with the descendants of a now extinct population of wild horses. This population was distinct from the only surviving wild horse population, that of the Przewalski's horses. The study has been published in the scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

The domestication of the horse some 5,500 years ago ultimately revolutionized human civilization and societies. Horses facilitated transportation as well as the circulation of ideas, languages and religions. Horses also revolutionized warfare with the advent of chariotry and mounted cavalry and beyond the battlefield horses greatly stimulated agriculture. However, the domestication of the horse and the subsequent encroachment of human civilization also resulted in the near extinction of wild horses.

The only surviving wild horse population, the Przewalski's horses from Mongolia, descends from mere 13 individuals, preserved only through a massive conservation effort. As a consequence of this massive loss of genetic diversity, the effects of horse domestication through times have been difficult to unravel on a molecular level. Says Dr. Ludovic Orlando, Associate Professor at the Centre for GeoGenetics, who led this work

"The classical way to evaluate the evolutionary impact of domestication consists of comparing the genetic information present amongst wild animals and their living domesticates. This approach is ill suited to horses as the only surviving population of wild horses has experienced a massive demographic decline in the 20th century. We therefore decided to sequence the genome of ancient horses that lived prior to domestication to directly assess how pre-domesticated horses looked like genetically."

Recent advances in ancient DNA research have opened the door for reconstructing the genomes of ancient individuals. In 2013, Ludovic Orlando and his team succeeded in decoding the genome of a ~700,000 year-old horse, which represents the oldest genome sequenced to date. This time, the researchers focused on much more recent horse specimens, dating from ~16,000 and ~43,000 years ago. These were carefully selected to unambiguously predate the beginning of domestication, some 5,500 years ago. The bone fossils were excavated in the Taymyr Peninsula, Russia, where arctic conditions favor the preservation of DNA.

The human reshaping of the horse

While the horse contributed to reshaping human civilization, humans in turn reshaped the horse to fit their diverse needs and the diverse environments they lived in. This transformation left specific signatures in the genomes of modern horses, which the ancient genomes helped reveal. The scientists were able to detect a set of 125 candidate genes involved in a wide range of physical and behavioral traits, by comparing the genomes of the two ancient horses with those of the Przewalski's horse and five breeds of domesticated horses. Says Dr. Dan Chang, post-doctoral researcher at the UCSC Paleogenomics Lab and co-leading author of the study:

"Our selection scans identified genes that were already known to evolve under strong selection in horses. This provided a nice validation of our approach."

Dr. Beth Shapiro, head of the UCSC Paleogenomics Lab continues: "We provide the most extensive list of gene candidates that have been favored by humans following the domestication of horses. This list is fascinating as it includes a number of genes involved in the development of muscle and bones. This probably reveals the genes that helped utilizing horses for transportation."

And Dr. Ludovic Orlando from the Centre for GeoGenetics at the University of Copenhagen concludes: "Perhaps even more exciting as it represents the hallmark of animal domestication, we identify genes controlling animal behavior and the response to fear. These genes could have been the key for turning wild animals into more docile domesticated forms."

The 'cost of domestication' in horses

However, the reshaping of the horse genome during their domestication also had significant negative impacts. This was apparent in the increasing levels of inbreeding found amongst domesticates, but also through an enhanced accumulation of deleterious mutations in their genomes relative to the ancient wild horses. This finding supports an earlier theory coined 'the cost of domestication', which predicted increasing genetic loads in domesticates compared to their wild ancestors. Says Professor Laurent Excoffier, University of Bern and group leader at the Swiss Institute for Bioinformatics:

"Domestication is generally associated with repeated demographic crashes. Yet, mutations that negatively impact genes are not eliminated by selection and can even increase in frequency when populations are small. Domestication thus generally comes at a cost, as deleterious mutations can accumulate in the genome. This had already been shown for rice and dogs. Horses now provide another example of this phenomenon."

This is something that was only detectable in the horse in comparison to the ancient genomes, as Przewalski's horses were found to show a proportion of deleterious mutations similar to domesticated horses. Says Hákon Jónsson, PhD-student at the Centre for GeoGenetics, co-leading author of the study: "The recent near extinction of the Przewalski's horse population resulted in the persistence of deleterious mutations in the population, following the same mechanism that once led to the accumulation of deleterious mutations in the genomes of domesticated horses. What is striking is that a similar order of magnitude 
was reached even though this occurred in a much shorter time scale than domestication."

An ancient contribution to the present

In addition, comparison of the ancient and modern genomes revealed that the ancient individuals contributed a significant amount of genetic variation to the modern population of domesticated horses, but not to the Przewalski's horses. This suggests that restocking from a wild population descendant from the ancient horses occurred during the domestication processes that ultimately led to the modern domesticated horses. Mikkel Schubert, PhD- student at the Centre for GeoGenetics, co-leading author of the study concludes:

"This confirms previous findings that wild horses were used to restock the population of domesticated horses during the domestication process. However, as we sequenced whole genomes, we can estimate how much of the modern horse genome has been contributed through this process. Our estimate suggests that at least 13%, and potentially up to as much as 60%, of the modern horse genome has been acquired by restocking from the extinct wild population. That we identified the population that contributed to this process demonstrates that it is possible to identify the ancestral genetic sources that ultimately gave rise to our domesticated horses."

Source: Faculty of Science - University of Copenhagen

Live fast, die young: Soil microbes in a warmer world

Aerial view of the Northern Minnesota landscape including numerous conifer peatlands, deciduous uplands and lakes. Credit: USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station

Warmer temperatures shorten the lifespan of soil microbes and this may affect soil carbon storage, according to a new NSF-funded study published in Nature Climate Change this week.

A research team led by Shannon Hagerty and Paul Dijkstra from Northern Arizona University measured two key characteristics of soil microbes that determine their role in the soil carbon cycle: how efficiently they use carbon to grow and how long they live. "Higher temperatures make microbes grow faster, but they also die faster," said Hagerty, who conducted the research as part of her master's degree and was lead author on the study.

Soil microbes consume organic carbon compounds in soil, use some of it to make more microbes and release the rest to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. The efficiency with which microbes use their food to make new microbes affects how much carbon remains in soil, and how much is released back to the atmosphere. The accepted idea before this study was that microbes would become less efficient at warmer temperatures.

The scientists incubated soil from a peatland and a forest in Minnesota at different temperatures and measured the efficiency with which microbes grew. They used a new method to measure microbial efficiency: they added small amounts of sugar and tracked how individual atoms in this sugar were turned into carbon dioxide.

"Microbes process sugars in similar ways as we do," says Paul Dijkstra. "We know very well how these processes work in laboratory studies, and can predict which carbon atoms in sugar molecules end up as carbon dioxide, and which are used to build new microbes. We applied this knowledge to the microbes living in soil."

The researchers found, contrary to expectation, that temperature had no effect on how microbes utilized their food, but instead boosted microbial death. "We don't yet know why microbes are dying faster at higher temperatures. Maybe they are eaten by nematodes or mites, or they die because of viruses," said Hagerty. "We need to know more about how temperature affects microbial death."

To explore what these new findings could mean for soil carbon storage in a warming world, the team compared output from a soil model that includes the effect of temperature on microbial lifespan to models unaffected by temperature change. "Models are used to predict how soil processes change, for example, in response to climate change," said Steve Allison, coauthor from the University of California, Irvine. "If we want to predict the future correctly, we'd better use models that accurately describe these microbial processes."

Including a temperature-dependent lifespan to the model increased the amount of carbon retained in soils at warmer temperatures compared to estimates from traditional models. The study concludes that incorporating this new insight into soil models will improve our understanding of how soils influence atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and global climate.

Does this mean that with climate change, more carbon will stay in the soil? "Too early to tell," said Bruce Hungate, Director of the Center for Ecosystem Science and Society at NAU. 

"The results suggest that the biochemistry of the microbes remains the same with warmer temperature, but that predation and death become more important. This laboratory study is just the first step, identifying a potential mechanism. Now we need to study how, in the real world, and in the long-term, the processes of biochemical efficiency and lifespan will change. And nobody has done that yet."

Source: Northern Arizona University

Sunlight, not microbes, key to carbon dioxide in Arctic

Terrestrial organic matter is shown spilling into a lake. Credit: Image courtesy of Oregon State University

The vast reservoir of carbon stored in Arctic permafrost is gradually being converted to carbon dioxide (CO2) after entering the freshwater system in a process thought to be controlled largely by microbial activity.

However, a new study -- funded by the National Science Foundation and published this week in the journal Science -- concludes that sunlight and not bacteria is the key to triggering the production of CO2 from material released by Arctic soils.

The finding is particularly important, scientists say, because climate change could affect when and how permafrost is thawed, which begins the process of converting the organic carbon into CO2.

"Arctic permafrost contains about half of all the organic carbon trapped in soil on the entire Earth -- and equals an amount twice of that in the atmosphere," said Byron Crump, an Oregon State University microbial ecologist and co-author on the Science study. "This represents a major change in thinking about how the carbon cycle works in the Arctic."

Converting soil carbon to carbon dioxide is a two-step process, notes Rose Cory, an assistant professor of earth and environmental sciences at the University of Michigan, and lead author on the study. First, the permafrost soil has to thaw and then bacteria must turn the carbon into greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide or methane. While much of this conversion process takes place in the soil, a large amount of carbon is washed out of the soils and into rivers and lakes, she said.

"It turns out, that in Arctic rivers and lakes, sunlight is faster than bacteria at turning organic carbon into CO2," Cory said. "This new understanding is really critical because if we want to get the right answer about how the warming Arctic may feedback to influence the rest of the world, we have to understand the controls on carbon cycling.

"In other words, if we only consider what the bacteria are doing, we'll get the wrong answer about how much CO2 may eventually be released from Arctic soils," Cory added.

The research team measured the speed at which both bacteria and sunlight converted dissolved organic carbon into carbon dioxide in all types of rivers and lakes in the Alaskan Arctic, from glacial-fed rivers draining the Brooks Range to tannin-stained lakes on the coastal plain. Measuring these processes is important, the scientists noted, because bacteria types and activities are variable and the amount of sunlight that reaches the carbon sources can differ by body of water.

In virtually all of the freshwater systems they measured, however, sunlight was always faster than bacteria at converting the organic carbon into CO2.

"This is because most of the fresh water in the Arctic is shallow, meaning sunlight can reach the bottom of any river -- and most lakes -- so that no dissolved organic carbon is kept in the dark," said Crump, an associate professor in Oregon State's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. "Also, there is little shading of rivers and lakes in the Arctic because there are no trees."

Another factor limiting the microbial contribution is that bacteria grow more slowly in these cold, nutrient-rich waters.

"Light, therefore, can have a tremendous effect on organic matter," University of Michigan's Cory pointed out.

The source of all of this organic carbon is primarily tundra plants -- and it has been building up for hundreds of thousands of years, but doesn't completely break down immediately because of the Arctic's cold temperatures. Once the plant material gets deep enough into the soil, the degradation stops and it becomes preserved, much like peat.

"The level of thawing only gets to be a foot deep or so, even in the summer," Crump said. "Right now, the thaw begins not long before the summer solstice. If the seasons begin to shift with climate change -- and the thaw begins earlier, exposing the organic carbon from permafrost to more sunlight -- it could potentially trigger the release of more CO2."

The science community has not yet been able to accurately calculate how much organic carbon from the permafrost is being converted into CO2, and thus it will be difficult to monitor potential changes because of climate change, they acknowledge.

"We have to assume that as more material thaws and enters Arctic lakes and rivers, more will be converted to CO2," Crump said. "The challenge is how to quantify that."

Some of the data for the study was made available through the National Science Foundation's Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research project, which has operated in the Arctic for nearly 30 years.

Source:  Oregon State University

Dolly Varden are a species of char common in southeast Alaska. The fish shown is in spawning coloration.

Not all species may suffer from climate change. A new analysis shows that Dolly Varden, a species of char common in southeast Alaska, adjust their migrations so they can keep feasting on a key food source -- salmon eggs -- even as shifts in climate altered the timing of salmon spawning.

The resiliency of species to climate change may depend on how well they adapt to climate-driven changes in their food and habitat, such as altered growth of plants they feed on. A mismatch in timing between predators and the availability of prey could cause some species to lose access to food. But others such as Dolly Varden that successfully adjust to shifts in climate and prey offer a climate change story with a happy ending, according to the study published in Freshwater Biology.

Ignoring environmental cues may help this predator

The Dolly Varden's secret appears to be that instead of taking its migration cues from environmental variables such as water temperature or streamflow, the species cues directly off the presence of salmon the Dolly Varden depend on for food, the study found.

"Despite warming temperatures and shifting salmon migrations, Dolly Varden do a great job of following their food," said lead author Chris Sergeant of the National Park Service's Inventory and Monitoring Program in southeast Alaska. "Species that can handle a high degree of variability are the ones that should be most resilient to further changes associated with climate."

Dolly Varden get most of their energy over the course of each year by gorging themselves on salmon eggs, which are abundant in summer and rich in energy thanks to the same fatty acids that make fish healthy for humans. Eggs from any single species of salmon may be available during a narrow spawning window of two to six weeks. The Dolly Varden must follow salmon migrations closely to take full advantage of this annual salmon egg bonanza.

Sticking with salmon to find food

But salmon migrations are shifting as the climate warms. Previous research by the University of Alaska and NOAA Fisheries' Alaska Fisheries Science Center in southeast Alaska's Auke Creek has shown that pink and coho salmon now migrate to their spawning grounds 10 to 17 days earlier while sockeye salmon migrate eight days earlier.

Instead of falling out of synch with salmon, though, seagoing Dolly Varden in Auke Creek have accurately adjusted their annual migrations from the ocean back to freshwater to stick with the salmon. The adjustment has maintained their access to egg meals, according to the new research that includes coauthors from the University of Wyoming and NOAA Fisheries' Northwest Fisheries Science Center.

Researchers rely on long record of fish migration data

The research depended on a wealth of fish data from a weir on Auke Creek maintained primarily since 1980 by NOAA Fisheries' Alaska Fisheries Science Center Auke Bay Labs, supported by collaborations with the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Alaska Department of Fish and Game. From 1997 to 2006 crews counted and measured Dolly Varden migrating from the ocean, past the weir and into Auke Creek, providing an unusual long-term picture of fish migration times.

"We're really indebted to the people who kept that record going for so long," said Eric Ward of the Northwest Fisheries Science Center. "It turns out to be very valuable in understanding how species are responding to the changing climate."

Researchers in the new study used the weir data to examine the relationship between migrations of salmon and Dolly Varden from year to year. They found the timing of Dolly Varden migration more closely related to the presence and timing of the salmon than on environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation that are often seen as driving animal migrations.

In short, the Dolly Varden are shifting their migration to follow their food instead of following temperatures or other environmental cues that, as the climate changes, might otherwise lead them to migrate at a different time than the salmon that provide their most important food.

The researchers cautioned that it's unclear whether other salmon predators could adjust their timing to follow salmon as effectively as Dolly Varden do, apparently by watching salmon passing by or detecting salmon eggs through smell. But the adaptability of Dolly Varden suggests that at least some species may be more resilient to climate-induced changes in migration timing than ecologists might assume.

Source: NOAA Fisheries West Coast Region

Small volcanic eruptions could be slowing global warming

The Sarychev Peak Volcano, on Matua Island, erupted on June 12, 2009. New research shows that eruptions of this size may contribute more to the recent lull in global temperature increases than previously thought. Credit: NASA

Small volcanic eruptions might eject more of an atmosphere-cooling gas into Earth's upper atmosphere than previously thought, potentially contributing to the recent slowdown in global warming, according to a new study.

Scientists have long known that volcanoes can cool the atmosphere, mainly by means of sulfur dioxide gas that eruptions expel. Droplets of sulfuric acid that form when the gas combines with oxygen in the upper atmosphere can remain for many months, reflecting sunlight away from Earth and lowering temperatures. However, previous research had suggested that relatively minor eruptions -- those in the lower half of a scale used to rate volcano "explosivity" -- do not contribute much to this cooling phenomenon.

Now, new ground-, air- and satellite measurements show that small volcanic eruptions that occurred between 2000 and 2013 have deflected almost double the amount of solar radiation previously estimated. By knocking incoming solar energy back out into space, sulfuric acid particles from these recent eruptions could be responsible for decreasing global temperatures by 0.05 to 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.09 to 0.22 degrees Fahrenheit) since 2000, according to the new study accepted to Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

These new data could help to explain why increases in global temperatures have slowed over the past 15 years, a period dubbed the 'global warming hiatus,' according to the study's authors.

The warmest year on record is 1998. After that, the steep climb in global temperatures observed over the 20th century appeared to level off. Scientists previously suggested that weak solar activity or heat uptake by the oceans could be responsible for this lull in temperature increases, but only recently have they thought minor volcanic eruptions might be a factor.

Climate projections typically don't include the effect of volcanic eruptions, as these events are nearly impossible to predict, according to Alan Robock, a climatologist at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J., who was not involved in the study. Only large eruptions on the scale of the cataclysmic 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, which ejected an estimated 20 million metric tons (44 billion pounds) of sulfur, were thought to impact global climate. But according to David Ridley, an atmospheric scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge and lead author of the new study, classic climate models weren't adding up.

"The prediction of global temperature from the [latest] models indicated continuing strong warming post-2000, when in reality the rate of warming has slowed," said Ridley. That meant to him that a piece of the puzzle was missing, and he found it at the intersection of two atmospheric layers, the stratosphere and the troposphere- the lowest layer of the atmosphere, where all weather takes place. Those layers meet between 10 and 15 kilometers (six to nine miles) above the Earth.

Traditionally, scientists have used satellites to measure sulfuric acid droplets and other fine, suspended particles, or aerosols, that erupting volcanoes spew into the stratosphere. But ordinary water-vapor clouds in the troposphere can foil data collection below 15 km, Ridley said. "The satellite data does a great job of monitoring the particles above 15 km, which is fine in the tropics. However, towards the poles we are missing more and more of the particles residing in the lower stratosphere that can reach down to 10 km."

To get around this, the new study combined observations from ground-, air- and space-based instruments to better observe aerosols in the lower portion of the stratosphere.
Four lidar systems measured laser light bouncing off aerosols to estimate the particles' stratospheric concentrations, while a balloon-borne particle counter and satellite datasets provided cross-checks on the lidar measurements. A global network of ground-based sun-photometers, called AERONET, also detected aerosols by measuring the intensity of sunlight reaching the instruments. Together, these observing systems provided a more complete picture of the total amount of aerosols in the stratosphere, according to the study authors.

Including these new observations in a simple climate model, the researchers found that volcanic eruptions reduced the incoming solar power by -0.19 ± 0.09 watts of sunlight per square meter of the Earth's surface during the 'global warming hiatus', enough to lower global surface temperatures by 0.05 to 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.09 to 0.22 degrees Fahrenheit). By contrast, other studies have shown that the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption warded off about three to five watts per square meter at its peak, but tapered off to background levels in the years following the eruption. The shading from Pinatubo corresponded to a global temperature drop of 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit).

Robock said the new research provides evidence that there may be more aerosols in the atmosphere than previously thought. "This is part of the story about what has been driving climate change for the past 15 years," he said. "It's the best analysis we've had of the effects of a lot of small volcanic eruptions on climate."

Ridley said he hopes the new data will make their way into climate models and help explain some of the inconsistencies that climate scientists have noted between the models and what is being observed.

Robock cautioned, however, that the ground-based AERONET instruments that the researchers used were developed to measure aerosols in the troposphere, not the stratosphere. To build the best climate models, he said, a more robust monitoring system for stratospheric aerosols will need to be developed.

Source; American Geophysical Union

Icelandic volcano sits on massive magma hot spot

Holuhraun fissure eruption on the flanks of the Bárðarbunga volcano in central Iceland on Oct. 4, 2014, showing the development of a lava lake in the foreground. Vapor clouds over the lava lake are caused by degassing of volatile-rich basaltic magma. Credit: Morten S. Riishuus, Nordic Volcanological Institute

Spectacular eruptions at Bárðarbunga volcano in central Iceland have been spewing lava continuously since Aug. 31. Massive amounts of erupting lava are connected to the destruction of supercontinents and dramatic changes in climate and ecosystems.

New research from UC Davis and Aarhus University in Denmark shows that high mantle temperatures miles beneath Earth's surface are essential for generating such large amounts of magma. In fact, the scientists found that the Bárðarbunga volcano lies directly above the hottest portion of the North Atlantic mantle plume.

The study, published online Oct. 5 and appearing in the November issue of Nature Geoscience, comes from Charles Lesher, professor of Earth and Planetary Science at UC Davis and a visiting professor at Aarhus University, and his former PhD student, Eric Brown, now a post-doctoral scholar at Aarhus University.

"From time to time the Earth's mantle belches out huge quantities of magma on a scale unlike anything witnessed in historic times," Lesher said. "These events provide unique windows into the internal working of our planet."

Such fiery events have produced large igneous provinces throughout Earth's history. They are often attributed to upwelling of hot, deeply sourced mantle material, or "mantle plumes."

Recent models have dismissed the role of mantle plumes in the formation of large igneous provinces, ascribing their origin instead to chemical anomalies in the shallow mantle.

Based on the volcanic record in and around Iceland over the last 56 million years and numerical modeling, Brown and Lesher show that high mantle temperatures are essential for generating the large magma volumes that gave rise to the North Atlantic large igneous provinces bordering Greenland and northern Europe.

Their findings further substantiate the critical role of mantle plumes in forming large igneous provinces.

"Our work offers new tools to constrain the physical and chemical conditions in the mantle responsible for large igneous provinces," Brown said. "There's little doubt that the mantle is composed of different types of chemical compounds, but this is not the dominant factor. Rather, locally high mantle temperatures are the key ingredient."

The research was supported by grants from the US National Science Foundation and by the Niels Bohr Professorship funded by Danish National Research Foundation.

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Source: University of California - Davis

Wild weather in the Arctic causes problems for people and wildlife

Svalbard's reindeer population can be severely affected by winter icing.
Credit: Brage Bremset Hansen

The residents of Longyearbyen, the largest town on the Norwegian Arctic island archipelago of Svalbard, remember it as the week that the weather gods caused trouble. Temperatures were ridiculously warm -- and reached a maximum of nearly +8 degrees C in one location at a time when mean temperatures are normally -15 degrees C. It rained in record amounts.

Snow packs became so saturated that slushy snow avalanches from the mountains surrounding Longyearbyen covered roads and took out a major pedestrian bridge. Snowy streets and the tundra were transformed into icy, rain-covered skating rinks that were difficult to navigate with snowmobiles. Flights were cancelled, the airport closed, and travel around town was tricky.

The situation was particularly problematic out on the Arctic tundra. Rain falling on snow can percolate to the base of a snowpack where it can pool at the soil surface and subsequently freeze. That makes it impossible for grazing reindeer to get at their food, for example, and extreme warm spells can even affect temperatures in the permanently frozen ground found throughout the archipelago.

But the extreme event also offered an interdisciplinary group of scientists, from climatologists to biologists to snow geophysicists and structural engineers, a chance to document the event and learn from it. Their cross-disciplinary report, "Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic," was published on 20 November in Environmental Research Letters.

"We had a unique opportunity to document what happened, and we did," said Brage Bremset Hansen, the first author on the paper, and co-author Øystein Varpe. "This was a case study from one event…but since it was an extreme event, and with all of our contacts in the different disciplines, we were able to compile this information into one story, which is quite rare."

Hansen is a biologist at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology's Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, and Varpe is an associate professor at the University Centre in Svalbard.

Just a 0.2 percent chance of happening

Co-author Ketil Isaksen, a climatologist from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, said that such an extreme event has a 500-year return period, which means that the probability of it happening in any one year is just 0.2 percent.

At the same time, climatologists say that Svalbard has seen the greatest increase in temperatures of any place in Europe over the last three decades.

And while no one can attribute the event directly to global warming, virtually all climate studies show that the High Arctic, including Svalbard, will become increasingly warmer and wetter over time.

"We expect this to be more likely to happen," Isaksen said.

Reindeer mortality up

As a biologist, Hansen was very interested in how the extreme weather would affect the archipelago's natural communities. Only four vertebrate species overwinter on Svalbard -- the wild Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus), the Svalbard rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta hyperborea), and the sibling vole (Microtus levis), and one animal that eats them all, the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus).

When Hansen and his colleagues compared summer population counts of reindeer after the January 2012 event to counts conducted for the previous summer, they found that the number of reindeer carcasses in many populations was among the highest ever recorded.
But it could have been worse, he said, in part because recent increases in summer temperatures have made for better foraging conditions for Svalbard reindeer overall.

"It wasn't like there were dead reindeer all over the tundra," he said. "If this had happened in the colder 1980s, it could have been much worse. …They had a nice winter up to this event, which occurred rather late."

Rain and permafrost

Hansen and colleagues have previously published research on the overwintering animal community on Svalbard, suggesting that such extreme events can affect all species. But what makes the new findings unique is the collaboration between different disciplines that enabled researchers to assemble a picture of what happened to Svalbard's physical environment, and to people living in the outposts of Longyearbyen and Ny-Ålesund, a tiny community with a winter population of about 30 people.

In Ny-Ålesund, for example, it rained nearly 100 mm in one day -- which would be more typical of the Norwegian coastal town of Bergen, renowned for its heavy rains. That one-day amount represented a quarter of the precipitation that Ny-Ålesund typically gets in a year.

Isaksen documented a significant increase in ground temperatures in permafrost as deep as 5 metres below the surface as a result of the extreme warming. This temperature increase came on top of a decades-long larger trend of warming of the permafrost on Svalbard, the researchers said. Permafrost is permanently frozen ground that is found throughout the archipelago and the High Arctic. In regions in the Northern Hemisphere where permafrost is found, it occupies approximately 25% (23 million km²) of the land area.

Tourism and infrastructure

And for Svalbard residents, who are some of the most northerly inhabitants on the globe, there were significant socioeconomic effects. During and after the event, it was difficult for snowmobiles to travel out on the tundra on the thick layer of ice, Varpe said.

This thick layer, averaging 15.3 cm, persisted out on the tundra well after the event was over, said Jack Kohler, senior research scientist, glaciology, at the Norwegian Polar Institute.
"The winter rain event leads to the ground-ice formation, and the ice lasts the remainder of the melt season, until it melts, and that is what I would call the significant happening," Kohler said. "The rain is an event, for sure, but the ice is actually the (big) event."

The result was a strong decrease in tourism for the rest of the winter, specifically for activities such as guided snowmobile and dogsled tours. Tour numbers dropped by 28 percent compared to the previous winter, and were the lowest ever since 2001, which is when statistics were first continuously kept. The researchers also believe that had a ripple effect on hotel stays and other tourist activities.

Another potential problem exposed by the extreme event was the vulnerability of the town's infrastructure to avalanches. A major avalanche in June 1953 destroyed the town's hospital and other buildings, killing three people, but since then, many buildings have been constructed without regard to potential avalanche risks. If Svalbard's climate continues to warm as our downscaled climate scenarios predict, the likelihood of damaging avalanches will only increase, Hansen and colleagues say.

Hansen is continuing to investigate the consequences of a warmer Arctic on Svalbard's natural communities and human population with a research project called VINTERREGN (Winter rain). Of particular interest is whether or not plants, which usually do not grow taller than a couple of inches at this latitude, can withstand being completely covered in ice for several months.

Source:  The Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

Atlantic warming turbocharges Pacific trade winds

Tropical beach (stock image). Rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean, likely caused by global warming, has turbocharged Pacific Equatorial trade winds, according to new research. Credit: © michaelfitz / Fotolia

New research has found rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean, likely caused by global warming, has turbocharged Pacific Equatorial trade winds. Currently the winds are at a level never before seen on observed records, which extend back to the 1860s.

The increase in these winds has caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise of global average surface temperatures since 2001.

It may even be responsible for making El Nino events less common over the past decade due to its cooling impact on ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific.

"We were surprised to find the main cause of the Pacific climate trends of the past 20 years had its origin in the Atlantic Ocean," said co-lead author Dr Shayne McGregor from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) at the University of New South Wales.

"It highlights how changes in the climate in one part of the world can have extensive impacts around the globe."

The record-breaking increase in Pacific Equatorial trade winds over the past 20 years had, until now, baffled researchers.

Originally, this trade wind intensification was considered to be a response to Pacific decadal variability. However, the strength of the winds was much more powerful than expected due to the changes in Pacific sea surface temperature.

Another riddle was that previous research indicated that under global warming scenarios Pacific Equatorial Trade winds would slow down over the coming century.

The solution was found in the rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean basin, which has created unexpected pressure differences between the Atlantic and Pacific. This has produced wind anomalies that have given Pacific Equatorial trade winds an additional big push.

"The rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean created high pressure zones in the upper atmosphere over that basin and low pressure zones close to the surface of the ocean," said Prof Axel Timmermann co-lead and corresponding author from the University of Hawaii.

"The rising air parcels, over the Atlantic eventually sink over the eastern tropical Pacific, thus creating higher surface pressure there. The enormous pressure see-saw with high pressure in the Pacific and low pressure in the Atlantic gave the Pacific trade winds an extra kick, amplifying their strength. It's like giving a playground roundabout an extra push as it spins past."

Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins, which may explain why they struggled to produce the recent increase in Pacific Equatorial trade wind trends.

While active, the stronger Equatorial trade winds have caused far greater overturning of ocean water in the West Pacific, pushing more atmospheric heat into the ocean, as shown by co-author and ARCCSS Chief Investigator Prof Matthew England earlier this year. This increased overturning appears to explain much of the recent slowdown in the rise of global average surface temperatures.

Importantly, the researchers don't expect the current pressure difference between the two ocean basins to last. When it does end, they expect to see some rapid changes, including a sudden acceleration of global average surface temperatures.

"It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end," Prof England said.

"However, a large El Niño event is one candidate that has the potential to drive the system back to a more synchronized Atlantic/Pacific warming situation."

Source: University of New South Wales

Long-running Jason-1 ocean satellite takes final bow

Artist's concept of the joint NASA/CNES Jason-1 ocean altimetry satellite. During its 11-1/2-year life, Jason-1 helped create a 20-plus-year climate record of global ocean surface topography, providing new insights into ocean circulation, tracking our rising seas and enabling more

The curtain has come down on a superstar of the satellite oceanography world that played the "Great Blue Way" of the world's ocean for 11-1/2 years. The successful joint NASA and Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) Jason-1 ocean altimetry satellite was decommissioned this week following the loss of its last remaining transmitter.

Launched Dec. 7, 2001, and designed to last three to five years, Jason-1 helped create a revolutionary 20-plus-year climate data record of global ocean surface topography that began in 1992 with the launch of the NASA/CNES Topex/Poseidon satellite. For more than 53,500 orbits of our planet, Jason-1 precisely mapped sea level, wind speed and wave height for more than 95 percent of Earth's ice-free ocean every 10 days. The mission provided new insights into ocean circulation, tracked our rising seas and enabled more accurate weather, ocean and climate forecasts.

"Jason-1 has been a resounding scientific, technical and international success," said John Grunsfeld, associate administrator of NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. 

"The mission met all of its requirements, performed an extended mission and demonstrated how a long-term climate data record should be established from successively launched satellites. Since launch, it has charted nearly 1.6 inches (4 centimeters) of rise in global sea levels, a critical measure of climate change and a direct result of global warming. The Jason satellite series provides the most accurate measure of this impact, which is felt all over the globe."

During parts of its mission, Jason-1 flew in carefully coordinated orbits with both its predecessor Topex/Poseidon and its successor, the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2, launched in 2008. These coordinated orbit periods, which lasted about three years each, cross-calibrated the satellites, making possible a 20-plus-year unbroken climate record of sea level change. These coordination periods also doubled data coverage.

Combined with data from the European Space Agency's Envisat mission, which also measured sea level from space, these data allow scientists to study smaller-scale ocean circulation phenomena, such as coastal tides, ocean eddies, currents and fronts. These small-scale features are thought to be responsible for transporting and mixing heat and other properties, such as nutrients and dissolved carbon dioxide, within the ocean.

"Jason-1 was an exemplary and multi-faceted altimeter mission and contributed so much to so many scientific disciplines," said Jean-Yves Le Gall, CNES president in Paris. "Not only did Jason-1 extend the precise climate record established by Topex/Poseidon, it made invaluable observations for mesoscale ocean studies on its second, interleaved orbit. Even from its 'graveyard' orbit, Jason-1 continued to make unprecedented new observations of the Earth's gravity field, with precise measurements right till the end."

The in-orbit Jason-2 mission, operated by the meteorological agencies of the United States and Europe (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and EUMETSAT, respectively) in collaboration with NASA and CNES, is in good health and continues to collect science and operational data. This same U.S./European team is preparing to launch the next satellite in the series, Jason-3, in March 2015.

Contact was lost with the Jason-1 satellite on June 21 when it was out of visibility of ground stations. At the time of the last contact, Jason-1 and its instruments were healthy, with no indications of any alarms or anomalies. Subsequent attempts to re-establish spacecraft communications from U.S. and French ground stations were unsuccessful. Extensive engineering operations undertaken to recover downlink communications also were unsuccessful.

After consultation with the spacecraft and transmitter manufacturers, it was determined a non-recoverable failure with the last remaining transmitter on Jason-1 was the cause of the loss of contact. The spacecraft's other transmitter experienced a permanent failure in September 2005. There now is no remaining capability to retrieve data from the Jason-1 spacecraft.

On July 1, mission controllers commanded Jason-1 into a safe hold state that reinitialized the satellite. After making several more unsuccessful attempts to locate a signal, mission managers at CNES and NASA decided to proceed with decommissioning Jason-1. The satellite was then commanded to turn off its magnetometer and reaction wheels. Without these attitude control systems, Jason-1 and its solar panels will slowly drift away from pointing at the sun and its batteries will discharge, leaving it totally inert within the next 90 days. The spacecraft will not reenter Earth's atmosphere for at least 1,000 years.

"Like its predecessor Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1 provided one of the most comprehensive pictures of changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean, including the comings and goings of El Nino and La Nina events," said Lee-Lueng Fu, Jason-1 project scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "These Pacific Ocean climate cycles are responsible for major shifts in sea level, ocean temperatures and rainfall every two to five years and can sometimes be so large that worldwide weather patterns are affected. Jason-1 data have been instrumental in monitoring and predicting these ever-changing cycles."

In the spring of 2012, based on concern over the limited redundancy of Jason-1's aging control systems, NASA and CNES moved the satellite into its planned final "graveyard" orbit, depleted its extra fuel and reconfigured the mission to make observations that will improve our knowledge of Earth's gravity field over the ocean, in addition to delivering its oceanographic data products.

The first full 406-day marine gravity mission was completed on June 17. The resulting data have already led to the discovery of numerous small seamounts, which are underwater mountains that rise above the deep-sea floor. The data also have significantly increased the resolution of Earth's gravity field over the ocean, while increasing our knowledge of ocean bathymetry, which is the underwater depth of the ocean floor.

JPL manages the U.S. portion of the Jason-1 mission for NASA's Science Mission Directorate. CNES manages the French portion of the mission.

Source: NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Tornado strength, frequency, linked to climate change

Tornado (stock image). New research by a Florida State University geography professor shows that climate change may be playing a key role in the strength and frequency of tornadoes hitting the United States. Credit: © fotola70 / Fotolia

New research by a Florida State University geography professor shows that climate change may be playing a key role in the strength and frequency of tornadoes hitting the United States.

Published Wednesday in the journal Climate Dynamics, Professor James Elsner writes that though tornadoes are forming fewer days per year, they are forming at a greater density and strength than ever before. So, for example, instead of one or two forming on a given day in an area, there might be three or four occurring.

"We may be less threatened by tornadoes on a day-to-day basis, but when they do come, they come like there's no tomorrow," Elsner said.

Elsner, an expert in climate and weather trends, said in the past, many researchers dismissed the impact of climate change on tornadoes because there was no distinct pattern in the number of tornado days per year. In 1971, there were 187 tornado days, but in 2013 there were only 79 days with tornadoes.

But a deeper dive into the data showed more severity in the types of storms and that more were happening on a given day than in previous years.

"I think it's important for forecasters and the public to know this," Elsner said. "It's a matter of making sure the public is aware that if there is a higher risk of a storm, there may actually be multiple storms in a day."

The United States experiences more tornadoes than any other country, and despite advances in technology and warning systems, they still remain a hazard to residents in storm-prone areas. The 2011 tornado season, for example, had nearly 1,700 storms and killed more than 550 people.

So far, in 2014, there have been 189 storms with a death toll of 43, according to the NOAA/National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.

One bright spot of news in the research, Elsner added, was that the geographic areas impacted most regularly by tornadoes do not appear to be growing.

Elsner was joined on the paper by independent researcher Thomas H. Jagger, formerly a research associate at Florida State University, and meteorologist Svetoslava Elsner.

Source: Florida State University

Global warming skeptics unmoved by extreme weather

What will it take to convince skeptics of global warming that the phenomenon is real? Surely, many scientists believe, enough droughts, floods and heat waves will begin to change minds. Credit: © lightmemorystock / Fotolia

What will it take to convince skeptics of global warming that the phenomenon is real? Surely, many scientists believe, enough droughts, floods and heat waves will begin to change minds.

But a new study led by a Michigan State University scholar throws cold water on that theory.
Only 35 percent of U.S. citizens believe global warming was the main cause of the abnormally high temperatures during the winter of 2012, Aaron M. McCright and colleagues report in a paper published online today in the journal Nature Climate Change.

"Many people already had their minds made up about global warming and this extreme weather was not going to change that," said McCright, associate professor in MSU's Lyman Briggs College and Department of Sociology.

Winter 2012 was the fourth warmest winter in the United States dating back to at least 1895, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Some 80 percent of U.S. citizens reported winter temperatures in their local area were warmer than usual.

The researchers analyzed March 2012 Gallup Poll data of more than 1,000 people and examined how individuals' responses related to actual temperatures in their home states. Perceptions of warmer winter temperatures seemed to track with observed temperatures.

"Those results are promising because we do hope that people accurately perceive the reality that's around them so they can adapt accordingly to the weather," McCright said.

But when it came to attributing the abnormally warm weather to global warming, respondents largely held fast to their existing beliefs and were not influenced by actual temperatures.

As this study and McCright's past research shows, political party identification plays a significant role in determining global warming beliefs. People who identify as Republican tend to doubt the existence of global warming, while Democrats generally believe in it.

The abnormally warm winter was just one in an ongoing series of severe weather events -- including the 2010 Russian heat wave, Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the 2013 typhoon in the Philippines -- that many believed would help start convincing global warming skeptics.

"There's been a lot of talk among climate scientists, politicians and journalists that warmer winters like this would change people's minds," McCright said. "That the more people are exposed to climate change, the more they'll be convinced. This study suggests this is not the case."

Source: Michigan State University

Managing coasts under threat from climate change, sea-level rise

Sea levels are rising. Experts say that we need to address human-led and other non-climatic changes. Credit: Image courtesy of University of Southampton

Coastal regions under threat from climate change and sea-level rise need to tackle the more immediate threats of human-led and other non-climatic changes, according to a team of international scientists.

The team of 27 scientists from five continents, led by Dr Sally Brown at the University of Southampton, reviewed 24 years of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments (the fifth and latest set being published in 2013 and 2014). They focused on climate change and sea-level rise impacts in the coastal zone, and examined ways of how to better manage and cope with climate change.

They found that to better understand climate change and its impacts, scientists need to adopt an integrated approach into how coasts are changing. This involves recognising other causes of change, such as population growth, economic development and changes in biodiversity. Dr Brown emphasised that: "Over the last two and half decades, our scientific understanding of climate change and sea-level rise, and how it will affect coastal zones has greatly increased. We now recognise that we need to analyse all parts of our human and natural environments to understand how climate change will affect the world."

The scientists also acknowledged that long-term adaptation to climate change can greatly reduce impacts, but further research and evaluation is required to realise the potential of adaptation. "Many parts of the coast can, with forward planning, adapt to sea-level rise, but we need to better understand environments that will struggle to adapt, such as developing countries with large low-lying river deltas sensitive to salinisation, or coral reefs and particularly small, remote islands or poorer communities," said Dr Brown.

For example, in the Maldives, many small, remote low-lying islands are at risk from climate change and will struggle to adapt. But around the densely populated capital city and airport, adaptation has already occurred as land claim is a common practice in order to relive population pressure. Sea-level rise has already been considered into newly claimed land. 

Thus in decades to come, potential climate change impacts, such as flooding, will be reduced for this island, benefiting both the local population and economy.

Dr Jochen Hinkel from Global Climate Forum in Germany, who is a co-author of this paper and a Lead Author of the coastal chapter for the 2014 IPCC Assessment Report added: "The IPCC has done a great job in bringing together knowledge on climate change, sea-level rise and is potential impacts but now needs to complement this work with a solution-oriented perspective focusing on overcoming barriers to adaptation, mobilising resources, empowering people and discovering opportunities for strengthening coastal resilience in the context of both climate change as well as existing coastal challenges and other issues."

This new research, published as a commentary in Nature Climate Change, will help in the understanding of the impacts of climate change and how to reduce impacts via adaptation. Its multi-disciplinary approach could be useful if future IPCC assessment reports are commissioned.

Source: University of Southampton