The role of gravitational instabilities in deposition of volcanic ash: The example of Eyjafjallajökull

Figure 1 from Manzella et al.: Original and processed snapshot of the video of the Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland) plume as observed on 4 May 2010. White arrows indicate finger positions. This article is Open Access.

Boulder, Colo., USA – Volcanic ash poses a significant hazard for areas close to volcanoes and for aviation. For example, the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, clearly demonstrated that even small-to-moderate explosive eruptions, in particular if long-lasting, can paralyze entire sectors of societies, with significant, global-level, economic impacts. In this open-access Geology article, Irene Manzella and colleagues present the first quantitative description of the dynamics of gravitational instabilities and particle aggregation based on the 4 May 2010 eruption.

Their analysis also reveals some important shortcomings in the Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersal Models (VATDMs) typically used to forecast the dispersal of volcanic ash. In particular, specific processes exist that challenge the view of sedimentation of fine particles from volcanic plumes and that are currently poorly understood: particle aggregation and gravitational instabilities. These appear as particle-rich "fingers" descending from the base of volcanic clouds and have commonly been observed during volcanic explosive eruptions.

Based on direct observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull plume, on the correlation with the associated fallout deposit, and on dedicated laboratory analogue experiments, Irene Manzella and colleagues show how fine ash in these particle-rich fingers settles faster than individual particles and that aggregation and gravitational instabilities are closely related. Both phenomena can significantly contribute to reducing fine-ash lifetime in the atmosphere and, therefore, it is crucial to include them in VATDMs in order to provide accurate forecasting of ash dispersal and sedimentation.

Source: Gsa

Studying patterns in bacterial organization

credit to Gerard Wong, of the California NanoSystems Institute

Bacterial biofilms, at first glance, may seem to be spontaneous, random phenomena from which we have no power to protect our environment or ourselves.

They’re potentially useful as an aid to wastewater treatment, but they also cause infections that account for $6 billion a year in health care costs. Biofilms are also more resistant to antibiotic drugs, making them difficult to eradicate.

Dr. Kun Zhao, of the California NanoSystems Institute at UCLA, refuses to see biofilms as arbitrary: he emphasizes the fact that biofilms are communities of bacteria in self-produced polymeric matrices of polysaccharides, and using a biophysical approach, he studies the pattern behind their organization.

Central questions in Zhao’s research include how bacterial colonies transition from reversible to irreversible attachment, how they migrate, and how they ultimately disperse. Specifically, Zhao examines the polysaccharide Psl, which poses a positive feedback loop because it is both secreted by moving bacteria and serves as a chemo-attractant for future bacteria movement. The positive feedback creates an inherent pattern, as bacteria are more likely to visit a location they have been to before.

Zhao and colleagues have also discovered that bacterial mutants that cannot produce Psl exhibit more random and uniform movement.

To better quantify bacterial movement,Zhao has created a computer algorithm that shows the full movement history of each individual bacterium on a dish, and that provides a “search engine” allowing researchers to find every bacterium performing specific life cycle activities, like division.

Zhao has postulated a “rich get richer” mechanism for biofilms. He compares bacterial organization to Wall Street because concentrated movement ensures that some cells become extremely enriched. In the future, he hopes to model colloidal structures for biological problems, like the growth of the bacterial cell wall. Zhao currently uses colloids, which in physics are used as models for atomic systems, to observe how shapes affect self-assembly. He also would like to look at cell-substrate interactions, which are implicated in bacterial territoriality and social interactions.

by Olivia Zhu

Source: Duke University

Researcher uncovers surprising cause of the demise of Easter Island indigenous population

Easter Island Credit: Yale

A new paper by a team of researchers including a Virginia Commonwealth University anthropology professor sheds new light on what led to the downfall of the indigenous population of Easter Island — also known as Rapa Nui — prior to European contact in 1722.

The study, "Variation in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) Land Use Indicates Production and Population Peaks Prior to European Contact," published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that the population's demise likely had more to do with pre-existing environmental conditions than with environmental degradation by the indigenous people.

Christopher Stevenson, Ph.D., an assistant professor of anthropology in the School of World Studies in the College of Humanities and Sciences, recently discussed his team's findings with VCU News.

Your paper explores what led to the collapse of the prehistoric population of Rapa Nui. What did you conclude?

Our paper evaluates a longstanding debate and examines whether the prehistoric population of Rapa Nui experienced a significant islandwide demographic collapse prior to European contact in A.D. 1722. We have used dates from hydrated obsidian artifacts recovered from habitation sites as a proxy for land use over time. The analysis suggests region-specific dynamics that include abandonment of western coast and interior locations. These temporal land-use patterns correlate with rainfall variation and soil quality. The environmental stresses are regionally specific rather than islandwide. Significant erosion around the entire island generated by deforestation has been hypothesized by other researchers as a cause for economic failure. This does not hold up to scrutiny.

How would you characterize the significance of your findings?

This analysis demonstrates that the concept of a sudden "collapse" is a misleading characterization of prehistoric human population dynamics. As a result, we see our approach as useful in the study of other prehistoric societies for which a very rapid demographic collapse has been proposed in prehistory.

Although small, islands can be complex ecosystems that are structured by climatic variation and underlying geology. Human activities are constrained by these parameters and can even cause the ecosystem conditions to change appreciably through their manipulation of the landscape.

Were you surprised by what you found? In what ways?

The results of our research were really quite surprising to our team. Indeed, in the past we’ve published articles about how there was little evidence for pre-European contact societal collapse. When we proposed the [National Science Foundation-funded] project we were expecting that we would gather data supporting the notion that change did not occur until after European contact. In contrast our research suggests that significant changes in land use occurred prior to European contact. The connection between those changes in land use and notions of environmental degradation and subsequent societal collapse are limited.

There is no evidence that massive physical erosion took place on Rapa Nui before European contact and it is unlikely that physical erosion caused productivity decline and societal collapse. While we do not have direct population data, it is clear that people were reacting to regional environmental variation on the island before they were devastated by the introduction of European diseases and other historic processes. In short, our research does not support the suggestion that societal collapse occurred prior to European contact due to physical erosion and productivity decline, but it does indicate that use of less optimal environmental regions changed prior to European contact.

What did your research methodology entail?

We used a method called obsidian hydration dating to date the human creation of volcanic glass tools found at habitation sites. These dates were a proxy for the relative number of people on the island throughout prehistory. We also used an analysis of soil nutrients to look at the fertility of various landforms (e.g., coastal vs. upland) at different elevations up to 500 meters above sea level.

You've written several books on Rapa Nui. What led to your interest in this topic?

This is a continuation of my interest in looking at the development of agricultural systems in small island societies and how that impacts social and economic decisions made in prehistory.

What will you be working on next?

We will be applying some of the same concepts to the Canary Island agricultural systems which have a much higher diversity of geological ages and climatic conditions.

Source: Vcu

Meteorology meets metrology: Climate research high up in the clouds

View along HALO's wing (with the aerosol instruments) above the Amazon rainforest.
Credit: Buchholz/PTB

Barely has the research aircraft HALO entered the kilometre-high clouds towering above the Brazilian rainforest than the researchers find themselves in a complete haze, but they can rely on the measuring instruments that are working at full capacity. HAI -- a new, highly accurate hygrometer of the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) -- is aboard. The shooting star among hygrometers has been developed only recently by metrologists (metrology = the science of measurement) especially for use on board aircraft and in the clouds, but it has already been used in four research campaigns and has already clocked up more than 300 hours of active use. It is the only device worldwide that can determine precisely and simultaneously how much of the water present in the atmosphere is in the form of vapour, condensation, droplets or ice.

These data help us understand natural and anthropogenic cloud formation processes and how they influence the climate. HAI is robust enough for field use at strongly varying temperatures and pressures and it is also coupled to the international humidity scale. Furthermore, it requires no time-consuming calibration. Its unique features combine applied climate research with metrology's most demanding requirements.

HAI is an acronym that stands for Hygrometer for Atmospheric Investigations. Its latest assignment (within the scope of the ACRIDICON-CHUVA mission) took it on a large-scale expedition in which approx. 60 scientists from Germany, Israel and Brazil were involved. On board HALO, one of the most modern measurement aircraft for atmospheric research -- operated by the Deutsches Luft- und Raumfahrtzentrum (DLR -- the national aeronautics and space research centre of the Federal Republic of Germany) -- HAI again and again flew into the clouds rising above the Amazon rainforest to collect samples. The researchers wanted to find out, among other things, which influence air pollution above cities or slash-and-burn areas have on the formation of clouds.

Water is the most important greenhouse gas and plays various roles in climate development. Clouds shade and cool down the surface of Earth; at the same time, they act as an insulation layer, keeping the terrestrial thermal radiation from escaping into space. The total global water cycle is based on the humidity present in the air heating up and cooling down again. 

Furthermore, humidity values serve as a correction coefficient in many other atmospheric measurements. Water is the most influential greenhouse gas, this is a fact. But putting a figure on its influence in order to set up models on climate development is a very difficult task. Depending on how high the clouds are as well as on their exact composition (they can consist of vapour, droplets and ice in varying amounts), they can have very diverse effects. Also, the measurement of the different phases of water is a complex task as its state of matter may already be influenced decisively the moment the sample is taken: for example, water vapour can already condensate to droplets on its way to the measuring instrument due to cooling while the sample is being collected.

Scientists from PTB have solved this problem by means of the HAI multi-phase water sensor. HAI simultaneously determines how much water vapour and how much condensed water is present in the air; a robust, open and aerodynamic measuring cell located outside the aircraft body directly measures the gaseous water vapour content of the air flowing through it. Another two-channel measuring unit is located inside the aircraft, at the end of a heated sample collection tube where two sensors working independently of each other measure the total water content of the sample. The difference between the total water content measured and the result of the measurement carried out in the gaseous phase allow the content of condensed water to be determined simultaneously.

HAI is based on a special variant of TDLAS (Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy) which is self-calibrating. The previously required time-consuming calibration, which was excessively difficult to carry out accurately and frequently enough in the field, has, thus, become obsolete. In addition, HAI, in combination with HALO, is the first airborne fast hygrometer in use that is directly traced back to the metrological humidity scale. Contrary to most other hygrometers, it provides results with low and clearly defined measurement uncertainty, in accordance with strict metrological requirements.

Source: Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB)

Pilot plant for removal of extreme gas charges from deep waters

Pit Lake Guadiana in the former mining area Herrerias in Andalusia, Spain.
Credit: : Bertram Boehrer/UFZ

Being part of the mining area Herrerias in Andalusia, deep waters of Pit Lake Guadiana show extremely high concentration of dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2). In the case of a spontaneous ebullition, human beings close-by would be jeopardized. To demonstrate the danger and the possible solution, scientists of the Spanish Institute of Geology and Mining, the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU, Bilbao) and the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) constructed a pilot plant for degassing. A fountain pulls deep water through a pipe to the surface, where the gas can escape from the water. The buoyancy produced by the bubbles provides the energy required for driving the flow.

"The deep water in the residual lake Guadiana contains an extremely high volume of carbon dioxide (CO2). Oxidation of ores has created a very acidic milieu, which is also known from other mining areas. In the mining area Herrerias however, this acidity dissolves carbonate from the rocks and produces carbonic acid (dissolved CO2), which can be accumulated under the high pressures of deep waters in the lake. There is not much circulation beyond 25 meter depth to remove the gas load" says Dr. Bertram Boehrer of UFZ, who is physicist and has been investigating stratification in lakes at many places on Earth. Due to the high hydrostatic pressure, each liter of deep water contains about 2.5 liters of CO2 gas. As long as the stratification remains stable, the gas is retained in the deep water. A land slide or other processes producing large water movements could facilitate a sudden release of gas previously confined under high pressure. Inhaled air of 8 percent CO2 are considered deadly for humans.

Now the scientists installed a degasing pipe which is the heart of the new pilot plant: Deep water enters a pipe at 61m depth. On the way up, hydrostatic pressure drops and gas bubbles form. The reduced density of the water-gas-mixture allows that deep water is pushed out of the pipe at the upper end to form a fountain above the water table, where gas is released to the atmosphere. This is an elegant solution, as the system does not require any additional driver, and the controlled release of CO2 does not pose any problem. "With this pilot plant, we could demonstrate that this approach also works in Guadiana pit lake. This can now be proposed to authorities as a possible approach to deal with the gas load." Though the lake in the mining area is fenced and access is not permitted to the public, this prohibition is difficult to survey.

Earlier installations in Lake Nyos in Cameroon served as a good example for this approach. In this lake, degassing pipes had been installed, which released the gas load with three fountains. On August 21st 1986, a large volume of gas escaped from the lake suddenly. The gas entered valleys of the surrounding area. 1700 human beings and thousands of animals were killed. The trigger could have been a land slide though this was never really proven. To avoid a repetition of this disaster, the gas load is slowly removed from the lake. One more crater lake called Monoun in Cameroon suffocated 37 human beings close to its shores in a similar eruption. Also in Monoun degasing fountains have been installed.

In Guadiana pit lake we do not see the same danger as in Lake Nyos, due to smaller size and depth. In addition, a density gradient between surface waters and deep waters is keeping the system stable. However, gas concentrations are so high that precaution must be taken. More detailed investigations must be implemented and remediation must be considered, says Dr. Boehrer. For the formation of such extreme gas loads, lakes must be sufficiently deep with incomplete winter recirculation (meromixis) and a strong carbon dioxide source. At the moment, we do not have such a lake in Germany.

Source: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ

Yellowstone's thermal springs: Their colors unveiled

This is a photograph of Morning Glory Pool from Aug. 23, 2012.
Credit: Joseph Shaw, Montana State University

Researchers at Montana State University and Brandenburg University of Applied Sciences in Germany have created a simple mathematical model based on optical measurements that explains the stunning colors of Yellowstone National Park's hot springs and can visually recreate how they appeared years ago, before decades of tourists contaminated the pools with make-a-wish coins and other detritus.

The model, and stunning pictures of the springs, appear today in the journal Applied Optics, which is published by The Optical Society (OSA).

If Yellowstone National Park is a geothermal wonderland, Grand Prismatic Spring and its neighbors are the ebullient envoys, steaming in front of the camera and gracing the Internet with their ethereal beauty. While the basic physical phenomena that render these colorful delights have long been scientifically understood -- they arise because of a complicated interplay of underwater vents and lawns of bacteria -- no mathematical model existed that showed empirically how the physical and chemical variables of a pool relate to their optical factors and coalesce in the unique, stunning fashion that they do.

"What we were able to show is that you really don't have to get terribly complex -- you can explain some very beautiful things with relatively simple models," said Joseph Shaw, a professor at Montana State University and director of the university's Optical Technology Center. Shaw, along with his Ph.D. student Paul Nugent and German colleague Michael Vollmer, co-authored the new paper.

Using a relatively simple one-dimensional model for light propagation, the group was able to reproduce the brilliant colors and optical characteristics of Yellowstone National Park's hot springs by accounting for each pool's spectral reflection due to microbial mats, their optical absorption and scattering of water and the incident solar and diffuse skylight conditions present when measurements were taken.

"When we started the study, it was clear we were just doing it for fun," Vollmer said. But they quickly discovered there was very little in the scientific literature on the subject. That's when things got interesting.

Montana State University, in Bozeman, Mont., is a short drive away from Yellowstone National Park. In the summer of 2012, Vollmer, on sabbatical from the Brandenburg University of Applied Sciences, travelled with Shaw and Nugent to the park. Using handheld spectrometers, digital SLR cameras for visible images and long wave infrared thermal imaging cameras for non-contact measurement of the water temperatures, the group took measurements at a number of pools in Yellowstone, including Morning Glory Pool, Sapphire Pool and Grand Prismatic Spring. Using these data, along with previously available information about the physical dimensions of the pools, they were able to create a simple model whose renderings of the pools were strikingly similar to actual photographs.

In the case of Morning Glory Pool, they were even able to simulate what the pool once looked like between the 1880s and 1940s, when its temperatures were significantly higher. 

During this time, its waters appeared a uniform deep blue. An accumulation of coins, trash and rocks over the intervening decades has partially obscured the underwater vent, lowering the pool's overall temperature and shifting its appearance to a terrace of orange-yellow-green. This change from blue was demonstrated to result from the change in composition of the microbial mats, as a result of the lower water temperature.

A general relationship between shallow water temperature (hence microbial mat composition) and observed colors was confirmed in this study. However, color patterns observed in deeper segments of the pool are caused more by absorption and scattering of light in the water. These characteristics -- mats having greater effect on color in shallow water, and absorption and scattering winning out in the deeper areas -- are consistent across all the measured pools.

"Our paper describes a very simple, one-dimensional model, that gives the first clue if you really want to do more," Vollmer said.

"We didn't start this project as experts on thermal pools," Shaw said. "We started this project as experts on optical phenomena and imaging, and so we had a lot to learn."

"There are people at my university who are world experts in the biological side of what's going on in the pools," Shaw said. "They're looking for ways to monitor changes in the biology -- when the biology changes, that causes color changes -- so we're actually looking at possibilities of collaborating in the future."

Future work for Nugent, Vollmer and Shaw includes delving further into infrared imaging at Yellowstone National Park.

Source:  American Institute of Physics (AIP)

'Family' matters when predicting ecosystems' reaction to global change

This is a picture of the experimental setup in the greenhouse.
Credit: Jennifer Schweitzer, co-author and associate professor at UT

Humans are rapidly changing the look and function of earth's ecosystems, from the increase of greenhouse gases to the unintentional and harmful spread of plants and animals to new environments. A major challenge for ecologists is to understand how and why communities respond to factors that underlie global change.

A University of Tennessee, Knoxville, study is finding some clues. It shows that just as our family histories dictate what we look like and how we act, plant evolutionary history shapes community responses to interacting agents of global change.

The research, published in the open-access journal PLOS ONE, may help predict what ecosystems will look like in the future and how they will work.

"The issues of global change have already begun to jeopardize the natural functioning of ecosystems and important services that we often take for granted like clean air, clean water, food and fiber production," said Rachel Wooliver, lead author and doctoral student in ecology and evolutionary biology. "Our study is the first to experimentally show that plant communities with different evolutionary backgrounds will respond differently to human-caused physical and biological changes."

In other words, regarding the future effects of global change on ecosystem services and processes humans rely upon, it's all in the family.

Wooliver and colleagues from UT, the University of Tasmania and Villanova University used eucalypt species native to Tasmania, Australia, to compare plant growth in cultures of all the same species to that of mixtures with native species with an introduced hardwood plantation species. They analyzed plant activity in an ambient environment versus one of increased levels of carbon dioxide and soil nitrogen.

"We found that only those communities composed of native species within one evolutionary lineage responded significantly to elevated carbon dioxide and nitrogen by taking carbon from the atmosphere and sequestering it into biomass," said co-author John Senior of the University of Tasmania. "Communities from another lineage, on the other hand, showed no response, which suggests that they will play a less crucial role in offsetting the rise of carbon dioxide and global warming."

This means that evolutionary history will shape which species will effectively sequester carbon and which won't.

Further, the presence of the nonnative species in these communities influenced productivity differently depending on the evolutionary background of the interacting native species. Thus, family trees can be used to predict how the spread of nonnative species by humans will shape the look and function of ecosystems as global change continues.

"Overall, this study provides new direction for global change scientists by highlighting that evolutionary history is key to understanding outcomes of plant function and diversity with rapid ecological change," said Wooliver.

The work is promising to researchers that are trying to figure out if species interactions change how ecosystems are responding to global change, as well as conservation biologists who aim to determine which species might be at higher risk for extinction in the future.

Source: University of Tennessee

Desert streams: Deceptively simple

Dryland channels exhibit very simple topography despite being shaped by volatile rainstorms. Credit: Katerina Michaelides

Volatile rainstorms drive complex landscape changes in deserts, particularly in dryland channels, which are shaped by flash flooding. Paradoxically, such desert streams have surprisingly simple topography with smooth, straight and symmetrical form that until now has defied explanation.

That paradox has been resolved in newly published research conducted by Michael Singer and Katerina Michaelides, associate researchers at UC Santa Barbara's Earth Research Institute. The pair show that simple topography in dryland channels is maintained by complex interactions among rainstorms, the stream flows these storms generate in the river channel and sediment grains present on the riverbed. Their findings appear in the journal Geology.

Desert streams flow only during infrequent but intense rainstorms, and when they do, only parts of the channel contain water, making the flow irregular and erratic. One rainstorm may erode sediment grains in one section of the channel, while another storm moves sediment in a different area.

"Given this localized sediment movement during rainstorms, one might expect desert channels to contain mounds of sediment that undulate down the stream course reflecting the irregular flow, but they don't," Singer said. "The water produced in the channel only flows partially down the stream and then stops because it seeps into the riverbed, and there's not enough water from upstream to replace it, so it just disappears."

Because desert river channels do not feature the river bars, pools or riffles common in perennial streams, they decline in elevation downstream very smoothly. According to the researchers' findings, feedback between two variables -- complex water and sediment movements -- shape such basins.

Singer and Michaelides used data collected from the Rambla de Nogalte in southeastern Spain to model these dryland channel variables. The area has a semi-arid climate with mean annual rainfall of around 14 inches, which occurs during convective rainstorms, producing large floods that recur about once a decade.

They found that dryland channel width fluctuates downstream. Their observations show that grain size (roughness) also fluctuates from sand to gravel a downstream direction.

"There's feedback between this fluctuating width and fluctuating grain size," Singer said. "The stream flow is generated in a discontinuous pattern along the channel. Some rainstorms produce a bit of topography in some parts of the channel. Other spatial configurations of flow generated by storms destroy that topography so the variability of the rainstorms interacting with this channel are creating and destroying the topography constantly to keep it in this simple form."

Singer and Michaelides also produced simulations of extreme flows to determine the volume of flow necessary to reshape the channel completely. They examined the longitudinal variability of sediment flow as well as sediment storage to find the channel-shaping threshold. This threshold reshapes the entire channel and makes it smooth again. "It's a really significant threshold that tells us the magnitude of the flood necessary to reshape the channel," Singer said.

"Semi-arid and arid river systems are extremely important to the populations that live around them," he concluded. "Water resources are obviously a huge limitation in the development of societies, and a lot of water is being progressively diverted for irrigation, water use and other purposes, so those can further affect the spatial patterns of where flow is in these channels and potentially impact the processes of where topography develops in the river channel. Humans can inadvertently have an impact on the shape and form of river channels like these."

Source:  University of California - Santa Barbara

2014 Antarctic ozone hole holds steady

This image shows ozone concentrations above Antarctica on Sept. 11, 2014. Credit: NASA

The single-day maximum area was similar to that in 2013, which reached 24.0 million square kilometers (9.3 million square miles). The largest single-day ozone hole ever recorded by satellite was 29.9 million square kilometers (11.5 million square miles) on Sept. 9, 2000. Overall, the 2014 ozone hole is smaller than the large holes of the 1998-2006 period, and is comparable to 2010, 2012, and 2013.

With the increased atmospheric chlorine levels present since the 1980s, the Antarctic ozone hole forms and expands during the Southern Hemisphere spring (August and September). The ozone layer helps shield life on Earth from potentially harmful ultraviolet radiation that can cause skin cancer and damage plants.

The Montreal Protocol agreement beginning in 1987 regulated ozone depleting substances, such as chlorine-containing chlorofluorocarbons and bromine-containing halons. The 2014 level of these substances over Antarctica has declined about 9 percent below the record maximum in 2000.

"Year-to-year weather variability significantly impacts Antarctica ozone because warmer stratospheric temperatures can reduce ozone depletion," said Paul A. Newman, chief scientist for atmospheres at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. "The ozone hole area is smaller than what we saw in the late-1990s and early 2000s, and we know that chlorine levels are decreasing. However, we are still uncertain about whether a long-term Antarctic stratospheric temperature warming might be reducing this ozone depletion."

Scientists are working to determine if the ozone hole trend over the last decade is a result of temperature increases or chorine declines. An increase of stratospheric temperature over Antarctica would decrease the ozone hole's area. Satellite and ground-based measurements show that chlorine levels are declining, but stratospheric temperature analyses in that region are less reliable for determining long-term trends.

Scientists also found that the minimum thickness of ozone layer this year was recorded at 114 Dobson units on Sept. 30, compared to 250-350 Dobson units during the 1960s. Over the last 50 years satellite and ground-based records over Antarctica show ozone column amounts ranging from 100 to 400 Dobson units, which translates to about 1 millimeter (1/25 inch) to 5 millimeters (1/6 inch) of ozone in a layer if all of the ozone were brought down to the surface.

The ozone data come from the Dutch-Finnish Ozone Monitoring Instrument on NASA's Aura satellite and the Ozone Monitoring and Profiler Suite instrument on the NASA-NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite. NOAA measurements at South Pole station monitor the ozone layer above that location by means of Dobson spectrophotometer and regular ozone-sonde balloon launches that record the thickness of the ozone layer and its vertical distribution. Chlorine amounts are estimated using NOAA and NASA ground measurements and observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard NASA's Aura satellite.

NASA and NOAA are mandated under the Clean Air Act to monitor ozone-depleting gases and stratospheric depletion of ozone. Scientists from NASA and NOAA have been monitoring the ozone layer and the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and their breakdown products from the ground and with a variety of instruments on satellites and balloons since the 1970s. These observations allow us to provide a continuous long-term record to track the long-term and year-to-year evolution of ozone amounts.

Source:  NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Solar activity impacts polar ozone

Scientists have been able to confirm, for the first time, the long-term implications of solar-driven electron impact on the upper middle atmosphere ozone. Credit: NASA

The increase in greenhouse gases explains, to a large extent, the rise in the average temperature of Earth. According to the research study published in Nature Communications today, the Sun affects middle atmosphere ozone with potential implications on smaller scale to regional, but not global, climate.

Humankind is responsible for the global warming of our climate by increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, according results published today, fluctuations in the activity of the Sun impact middle atmosphere ozone, providing a potential link to regional scale climate variability. This climate variability is not a trend, like climate change, but rather year-to-year fluctuations following solar activity. "The detected ozone variation may in part help understand the alternation of local mild and cold winter seasons, as hints have been obtained in previous research that the ozone changes in the middle atmosphere may link as far as the surface of Earth and affect, among other things, polar wind streams," Finnish Meteorological Institute researcher Dr Pekka Verronen reflects.

The research team was able to confirm, for the first time, the long-term implications of solar-driven electron impact on the upper middle atmosphere ozone. The results showed strong effects in the polar latitudes. The amount of ozone at 70-80 km altitude was found to vary more than 30 percent during a solar cycle, a period of approximately 11 years. The ozone variation between the extremes of the Sun's activity is so great that it is likely to impact the temperature balance of the atmosphere. These temperature changes can in turn have an effect on atmospheric winds.

Electrons from space: Auroras and ozone loss

According to the research study conducted by the Finnish Meteorological Institute, University of Otago and the British Antarctic Survey, the electrons, similar to those behind the aurora, cause significant solar cycle variation in the polar mesosphere ozone. The amount of ozone is smaller when more electrons enter the atmosphere. "These results are only the first step but an important one, allowing us to better understand the long-term impacts of this type of solar activity, and its role in regional climate variability," says Dr Monika Andersson who lead the study at Finnish Meteorological Institute.

Earth's radiation belts are regions in near-Earth space that contain vast quantities of solar energetic electrons, trapped there by Earth's magnetic field. During magnetic storms, which are solar wind-driven, the electrons accelerate to high speeds and enter the atmosphere in the polar regions. In the atmosphere, the electrons ionize gas molecules, leading to the production of ozone-depleting catalyst gases. Based on currently available satellite observations, electron precipitation may, during solar storms lasting a few days, reduce ozone in the upper atmosphere (60-80 km) as much as 90 per cent on a momentary basis.

Source: Finnish Meteorological Institute

Drugs in the environment affect plant growth

Lettuce plants (stock image). The potential for some chemicals to influence plants is becoming increasingly relevant, particularly as waste management systems are unable to remove many compounds from our sewage. Drugs for human use make their way into soil through a number of routes, including the use of sewage sludge as fertilizer and waste water for irrigation.
Credit: © riderfoot / Fotolia

By assessing the impacts of a range of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, the research has shown that the growth of edible crops can be affected by these chemicals -- even at the very low concentrations found in the environment.

Published in the Journal of Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety, the research focused its analysis on lettuce and radish plants and tested the effects of several commonly prescribed drugs, including diclofenac and ibuprofen. These drugs are among the most common and widely used group of pharmaceuticals, with more than 30 million prescribed across the world every day.

The potential for these chemicals to influence plants is becoming increasingly relevant, particularly as waste management systems are unable to remove many compounds from our sewage. Drugs for human use make their way into soil through a number of routes, including the use of sewage sludge as fertilizer and waste water for irrigation.

This study looked for a number of changes in edible plants, assessing factors such as water content, root and shoot length, overall size and how effectively the plants photosynthesised.

Each drug was shown to affect the plants in very specific ways, with marked differences between drugs that are closely related. For example, drugs from the fenamic acid class affected the growth of radish roots, whilst ibuprofen had a significant influence on the early root development of lettuce plants.

Dr Clare Redshaw, one of the scientists leading the project at the Medical School's European Centre for Environment & Human Health, said: "The huge amounts of pharmaceuticals we use ultimately end up in the environment, yet we know very little about their effects on flora and fauna. As populations age and generic medicines become readily available, pharmaceutical use will rise dramatically and it's essential we take steps towards limiting environmental contamination. We haven't considered the impact on human health in this study, but we need to improve our understanding quickly so that appropriate testing and controls can be put in place."

There have been growing concerns about the presence of pharmaceuticals in the environment, particularly as evidence emerges of the effects they can have on the development of animals and antibiotic resistance in bacteria. Yet their ability to affect plant growth is poorly understood.

This study marks an important step in an emerging research field attempting to assess how very low concentrations of drugs can affect the growth of crucial crop plants. It specifically considered the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs tolfenamic acid, meclofenamic acid, mefenamic acid, diclofenac, naproxen and ibuprofen.

Source: University of Exeter

'Tipping points' for sea level rise related flooding determined

Annapolis, Maryland, pictured here in 2012, is one of three major East Coast urban areas already being faced with nuisance flooding in excess of 30 days per year. Credit: With permission from Amy McGovern

By 2050, a majority of U.S. coastal areas are likely to be threatened by 30 or more days of flooding each year due to dramatically accelerating impacts from sea level rise, according to a new NOAA study, published today in the American Geophysical Union's online peer-reviewed journal Earth's Future.

The findings appear in the paper "From the Extreme to the Mean: Acceleration and Tipping Points for Coastal Inundation due to Sea Level Rise," and follows the earlier study, Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency Changes around the United States, by the report's co-author, William Sweet, Ph.D., oceanographer at NOAA's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). The new analysis was presented at a news conference today at the annual AGU fall meeting in San Francisco.

NOAA scientists Sweet and Joseph Park established a frequency-based benchmark for what they call "tipping points," when so-called nuisance flooding, defined by NOAA's National Weather Service as between one to two feet above local high tide, occurs more than 30 or more times a year.

Based on that standard, the NOAA team found that these tipping points will be met or exceeded by 2050 at most of the U.S. coastal areas studied, regardless of sea level rise likely to occur this century. In their study, Sweet and Park used a 1½ to 4 foot set of recent projections for global sea level rise by year 2100 similar to the rise projections of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, but also accounting for local factors such as the settlement of land, known as subsidence.

These regional tipping points will be surpassed in the coming decades in areas with more frequent storms, the report said. These tipping points will be also be exceeded in areas where local sea levels rise more than the global projection of one and half to four feet. This also includes coastal areas like Louisiana where subsidence, which is not a result of by climate change, is causing land to sink below sea level.

NOAA tide gauges show the annual rate of daily floods reaching these levels has drastically increased -- often accelerating -- and are now five to ten times more likely today than they were 50 years ago.

"Coastal communities are beginning to experience sunny-day nuisance or urban flooding, much more so than in decades past," said Sweet. "This is due to sea level rise. Unfortunately, once impacts are noticed, they will become commonplace rather quickly. We find that in 30 to 40 years, even modest projections of global sea level rise -- 1½ feet by the year 2100 -- will increase instances of daily high tide flooding to a point requiring an active, and potentially costly response, and by the end of this century, our projections show that there will be near-daily nuisance flooding in most of the locations that we reviewed."

"Communities across the country become increasingly vulnerable to water inundation and flooding, effective risk management is going to become more heavily reliant on environmental data and analysis," said Holly Bamford, Ph.D., NOAA acting assistant secretary for conservation and management. "Businesses, coastal managers, federal, state, and local governments, and non-governmental organizations can use research such as this as another tool as they develop plans to reduce vulnerabilities, adapt to change, and ensure they're resilient against future events."

"The importance of this research is that it draws attention to the largely neglected part of the frequency of these events. This frequency distribution includes a hazard level referred to as 'nuisance': occasionally costly to clean up, but never catastrophic or perhaps newsworthy," said Earth's Future editor Michael Ellis in accepting the paper for the online journal.

Ellis also observed that "the authors use observational data to drive home the important point that nuisance floods (from inundating seas) will cross a tipping point over the next several decades and significantly earlier than the 2100 date that is generally regarded as a target date for damaging levels of sea-level. The paper also raises the interesting question of what frequency of 'nuisance' corresponds to a perception of 'this is no longer a nuisance but a serious hazard due to its rapidly growing and cumulative impacts'."

The scientists base the projections on NOAA tidal stations where there is a 50-year or greater continuous record. The study does not include the Miami area, as the NOAA tide stations in the area were destroyed by Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and a continuous 50-year data set for the area does not exist.

Based on that criteria, the NOAA team is projecting that Boston; New York City; Philadelphia; Baltimore; Washington, D.C.; Norfolk, Virginia; and Wilmington, North Carolina; all along the Mid-Atlantic coast, will soon make, or are already being forced to make, decisions on how to mitigate these nuisance floods earlier than planned. In the Gulf, NOAA forecasts earlier than anticipated floods for Galveston Bay and Port Isabel, Texas. Along the Pacific coast the earlier impacts will be most visible in the San Diego/La Jolla and San Francisco Bay areas.

Mitigation decisions could range from retreating further inland to coastal fortification or to a combination of "green" infrastructure using both natural resources such as dunes and wetland, along with "gray" human-made infrastructure such as sea walls and redesigned storm water systems.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

New insights into predicting future droughts in California: Natural cycles, sea surface temperatures found to be main drivers in ongoing event

Folsom Lake. Top photo taken in 2011, bottom taken in 2014.
Credit: CA Dept. of Water Resources

According to a new NOAA-sponsored study, natural oceanic and atmospheric patterns are the primary drivers behind California's ongoing drought. A high pressure ridge off the West Coast (typical of historic droughts) prevailed for three winters, blocking important wet season storms, with ocean surface temperature patterns making such a ridge much more likely. Typically, the winter season in California provides the state with a majority of its annual snow and rainfall that replenish water supplies for communities and ecosystems.

Further studies on these oceanic conditions and their effect on California's climate may lead to advances in drought early warning that can help water managers and major industries better prepare for lengthy dry spells in the future.

"It's important to note that California's drought, while extreme, is not an uncommon occurrence for the state. In fact, multi-year droughts appear regularly in the state's climate record, and it's a safe bet that a similar event will happen again. Thus, preparedness is key," said Richard Seager, report lead author and professor with Columbia University's Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory.

This report builds on earlier studies, published in September in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, which found no conclusive evidence linking human-caused climate change and the California drought. The current study notes that the atmospheric ridge over the North Pacific, which has resulted in decreased rain and snowfall since 2011, is almost opposite to what models project to result from human-induced climate change. The report illustrates that mid-winter precipitation is actually projected to increase due to human-induced climate change over most of the state, though warming temperatures may sap much of those benefits for water resources overall, while only spring precipitation is projected to decrease.

The report makes clear that to provide improved drought forecasts for California, scientists will need to fully understand the links between sea surface temperature variations and winter precipitation over the state, discover how these ocean variations are generated, and better characterize their predictability.

This report contributes to a growing field of science-climate attribution-where teams of scientists aim to identify the sources of observed climate and weather patterns.

"There is immense value in examining the causes of this drought from multiple scientific viewpoints," said Marty Hoerling, report co-author and researcher with NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory. "It's paramount that we use our collective ability to provide communities and businesses with the environmental intelligence they need to make decisions concerning water resources, which are becoming increasingly strained."

To view the report, visit: http://cpo.noaa.gov/MAPP/californiadroughtreport.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Clearing tropical rainforests distorts Earth's wind and water systems, packs climate wallop beyond carbon

The world without tropical rainforests. Credit: Image courtesy of ClimateFocus

A new study released today presents powerful evidence that clearing trees not only spews carbon into the atmosphere, but also triggers major shifts in rainfall and increased temperatures worldwide that are just as potent as those caused by current carbon pollution. Further, the study finds that future agricultural productivity across the globe is at risk from deforestation-induced warming and altered rainfall patterns.

The report, "Effects of Tropical Deforestation on Climate Change and Agriculture," published today in Nature Climate Change and released in collaboration with Climate Focus provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of the climate impacts of tropical forest destruction on agriculture in the tropics and thousands of miles away. Specifically, the study finds that deforestation in South America, Southeast Asia and Africa may alter growing conditions in agricultural areas in the tropics and as far away as the US Midwest, Europe and China.

The study is also the only global synthesis of research based on cutting-edge climate models and empirical data on the direct local, regional and global impacts of cutting down tropical forests, which regulate interactions between the earth and the atmosphere. It predicts that atmospheric impacts resulting from complete tropical deforestation could lead to a rise in global temperature of 0.7 degrees Celsius (on top of the impact from greenhouse gases), which would double the observed global warming since 1850. Currently, climate change negotiators are shaping policies that focus on greenhouse gases, in particular carbon. To date, they have overlooked policy responses that address other ways that forests affect climate.

"Tropical deforestation delivers a double whammy to the climate -- and to farmers," said Deborah Lawrence, Professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, the study's lead author. "Most people know that climate change is a dangerous global problem, and that it's caused by pumping carbon into the atmosphere. But it turns out that removing forests alters moisture and air flow, leading to changes -- from fluctuating rainfall patterns to rises in temperatures -- that are just as hazardous, and happen right away. The impacts go beyond the tropics -- the United Kingdom and Hawaii could see an increase in rainfall while the US Midwest and Southern France could see a decline."

The report presents compelling evidence that tropical deforestation is already affecting local and regional climates. Meteorological data, for example, show that in Thailand, the beginning of the dry season is experiencing less rainfall due to deforestation. And in parts of the Amazon, the world's largest stretch of rainforest, the timing of once-predictable rainfall has shifted due to deforestation. In deforested regions, the wet season is delayed by two weeks; in forested regions, there are no changes.

"The study not only compiles highly relevant scientific literature, it will also help guide policy makers working on climate change. Tropical deforestation impacts weather patterns globally, which makes addressing deforestation one of the most important mitigation strategies," adds Dr. Charlotte Streck, Director of Climate Focus.

Globalized Impacts of Deforestation

"Teleconnections," associated with the mass movement of air and conditions in the upper atmosphere, have the potential to extend the impacts of tropical deforestation on climate globally. An increase in temperature in the tropics due to deforestation generates large upward-moving air masses. When these hit the upper atmosphere they cause ripples, or teleconnections, that flow outward in various directions, similar to the way in which an underwater earthquake can create a tsunami.

Models examined in the study showed that increased or complete deforestation could put the climate in some of the world's most important agriculture regions off kilter. These variations in rainfall and spikes in temperature could occur across the world, according to the report.

For example, complete deforestation of the Amazon Basin would likely reduce rainfall in the US Midwest, Northwest and parts of the south during the agricultural season. The complete deforestation of Central Africa would likely cause declines in rainfall in the Gulf of Mexico and parts of the US Midwest and Northwest and increase it on the Arabian Peninsula. There could also be precipitation declines in Ukraine and Southern Europe.

"While complete deforestation is unlikely to occur, over the course of history, deforestation has continued as countries develop," Lawrence said. "Further, this study fills gaps in our understanding of deforestation tipping points -- and what could happen if we continue down this path."

Turning up the heat, turning down the rain

Across the board, the study reports, deforestation poses risks to agriculture by causing an increase in average temperature, a decline in average rainfall and a change in the location and timing of rainfall. Deforestation, for example, would lead to a reduction in rainfall between 10-15 percent in the region surrounding where the deforestation took place.

According to Lawrence, there is almost always an increase in temperature with deforestation. "This does not change, no matter what you do -- no matter what kind of model you use, temperature increases occur -- whether it's half a degree, a full degree or two degrees."

"That's a very big deal," said Lawrence. "In the last few centuries, the average global temperature has never varied by more than about one degree. Once we go above one degree -- to 1.5 degrees or more -- we're talking about conditions that are very different from anything humanity has ever experienced." Because crops are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and moisture, she added, they would suffer in hotter conditions. Increased floods or decreases in soil moisture would further add to stress on crops.

"Farmers, so reliant on consistent and reliable growing conditions, could lose their bearings and even their incomes, when facing these ups and downs in temperature and rainfall," Lawrence said. "While farmers may ultimately adapt to shifts in the season, it's difficult -- if not impossible -- for farmers to adapt to increased floods or parched soils."

Forests: Not Lungs but Sweat Glands

Because forests turn water from soil into moisture in the air, they cool the atmosphere above them. Tropical forests move more water than any other ecosystem on land. They are central to the earth's process of generating and regenerating moisture, so clearing ever-larger swathes of forest eventually leads to a drying and warming effect. By disturbing the movement of air in remote parts of the atmosphere, tropical deforestation throws temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide out of whack.

The impact of deforestation is diverse and varies across regions and scales -- from small plots of farmland in the midst of the rainforest to large swathes of cattle pasture bordered by forests -- but the more deforestation that occurs, the greater the impact.

"Tropical forests are often talked about as the 'lungs of the earth,' but they're more like the sweat glands," said Lawrence. "They give off a lot of moisture, which helps keep the planet cool. That crucial function is lost -- and even reversed -- when forests are destroyed."

The study found that relatively small plots of deforestation can actually increase rainfall at a local scale. There is, however, a critical clearing size above which rainfall declines dramatically.

Models studied in the report show that in the Amazon and, possibly, in the Congo Basin, 30-50 percent may be the deforestation tipping point. Any additional forest clearing would lead to rainfall reductions that could significantly change ecosystems, and compound the risk of additional dangers, such as an increase in forest fires.

The location of deforested areas can also affect their impacts on regional climates, the study finds. Deforesting West Africa or the Congo could reduce rainfall across the region by 40-50% and increase temperatures there up to 3°C. Regional scale models project that in the Amazon Basin, clearing 40% of the forest would decrease wet-season rainfall by 12% and dry-season rainfall by 21%. It would also reduce by 4% rainfall in the Rio de la Plata Basin, a center for soy, corn and wheat production, thousands of miles south of the Amazon. Because Southeast Asia is surrounded by oceans, the impact of deforestation on regional temperatures and rainfall may be less severe.

To reduce the effects of deforestation on climate change, the data suggest it would be best to retain large swathes of forest across the tropical forest belt and to avoid large-scale deforestation in any single location.

Lawrence added that climate-change negotiators and other policymakers should take the impacts of deforestation seriously. "What happens on the surface of the earth (in terms of changes in vegetation) is a big factor in climate change. We ignore it at our own peril."

Source: ClimateFocus

'Aquatic osteoporosis' jellifying lakes

A handful of Holopedium capsules which are replacing the water flea Daphnia due to declining calcium levels in many lakes.
Credit: Image courtesy of Queen's University

A plague of "aquatic osteoporosis" is spreading throughout many North American soft-water lakes due to declining calcium levels in the water and hindering the survival of some organisms, says new research from Queen's University.

Researchers from Queen's, working with colleagues from York University and the University of Cambridge, as well as other collaborators, have identified a biological shift in many temperate, soft-water lakes in response to declining calcium levels after prolonged periods of acid rain and timber harvesting. The reduced calcium availability is hindering the survival of aquatic organisms with high calcium requirements and promoting the growth of nutrient-poor, jelly-clad animals.

In the study, researchers looked at the microscopic organisms (~1 mm) Daphnia and Holopedium -- the latter whose size is greatly increased by its jelly capsule.

"Calcium is an essential nutrient for many lake-dwelling organisms, but concentrations have fallen so low in many lakes that keystone species can no longer survive," says Adam Jeziorski, one of the lead authors of the study and a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Biology at Queen's.

The research team found that when calcium levels are low, the water flea Daphnia, which has high calcium requirements, becomes less abundant. Importantly, this keystone species is being replaced by its jelly-clad competitor, Holopedium.

"Conditions now favour animals better adapted to lower calcium levels, and these changes can have significant ecological and environmental repercussions," says Dr. Jeziorski.

Tiny fossils from lake sediments were studied to determine the pre-impact conditions of the lakes as the calcium decline began before monitoring programs were in place. Using this technique, the team was able to examine the environmental trends from the past approximately 150 years.

"Lake sediments act like a history book of past changes in a lake, recording what happened before the problem was identified," says John Smol (Biology), Canada Research Chair in Environmental Change. "Jelly-clad invertebrates have been increasing in an alarming number of lakes. This is likely a long-term effect of acid rain on forest soils, logging and forest regrowth."

The increase in jelly-clad invertebrates can have important implications for lake biology, altering food webs, but can also clog water intakes.

"Many lakes we investigated have passed critical thresholds," says Dr. Smol. "We have been reduced to the role of spectator as these changes continue to unfold. Once again we see there are many unexpected consequences of our actions, most of which are negative."

This research was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change.
The study is published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B.

Source: Queen's University