Better dam planning strategies

This is a map showing combined effect of current and future dams. Credit: McGill University

When dams are built they have an impact not only on the flow of water in the river, but also on the people who live downstream and on the surrounding ecosystems. By placing data from close to 6,500 existing large dams on a highly precise map of the world's rivers, an international team led by McGill University researchers has created a new method to estimate the global impacts of dams on river flow and fragmentation.

Among their findings, published online today in Environmental Research Letters: 48% of the world's river volume is moderately or severely affected by dams today -- and that figure would nearly double if all dams planned or under construction are completed in the future.

"Over the past 60 years, a myriad of dams have been built either to provide hydroelectric power, or for irrigation purposes, or as flood protection," says Bernhard Lehner, a professor in McGill University's Department of Geography and the research director of the project. "The construction of large dams then slowed down for the last 20 years as we became more aware of their negative effects on people and ecosystems. But now, with fears about how climate change may affect water flows in the future, the goal of creating reservoirs is once more appealing, and dam construction is on the rise."

The new research was made possible by the team's development of a global river map with unprecedented resolution and detail, showing all waterways of the world from small creeks to the largest of rivers, accounting for a cumulative river length of 48.3 million km -- and by a new map of future dam locations assembled by colleagues at the Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries in Berlin.

The key components of the team's dam assessment method are two indices that describe river fragmentation and river regulation.

The river fragmentation index (RFI) is a measure of the way that a river's natural flow path (also known as its connectivity) has been disrupted by the creation of dams or by barriers that allow for the transfer of water between basins or towards irrigation areas, for example.

The river regulation index (RRI) is a measure of the proportion of the river water that can be stored in reservoirs, and thus affects the natural fluctuation and properties of river flow downstream.

By combining these two indices, the researchers have arrived at a way of assessing the impact of any existing or planned dam. So, for example, the Danube is severely impacted by fragmentation effects but is relatively weakly affected in terms of flow regulation due to many dams with relatively small reservoirs. The Murray-Darling basin in southern Australia, by contrast, is only weakly affected by fragmentation, but is heavily impacted by flow regulation, due to fewer but larger reservoirs.

"Not all dams are equal," says Günther Grill, a postdoctoral fellow in McGill University's Department of Geography and the lead author on the paper. "Our research assumes that it is not only the size of a dam but also where it is placed along the river that makes a difference. So depending on whether a dam is high up in the mountain headwaters or further down close to the delta, if it is on the main stem of the river or on a small tributary, all of these factors will have varying effects on the rivers and their surrounding ecosystems."

Researchers at the University of Minnesota's Institute on the Environment and the University of Wisconsin's Center for Limnology also contributed to the study.

Some dam and river facts:

There are 6,374 large dams already in existence and 3,377 planned or proposed large dams to be built by 2030.

Currently 48% of the world's river volume is moderately or severely affected by either flow regulation or fragmentation or both.

Assuming that all the dams that are planned or under construction are completed, this number would almost double to 93%, largely due to multiple dams being planned for major tributaries in the Amazon Basin.

Other large rivers that are currently rather free-flowing but on which large dams are planned are the Mekong River in Southeast Asia and the Amur River in Russia.

Source: McGill University

Managing coasts under threat from climate change, sea-level rise

Sea levels are rising. Experts say that we need to address human-led and other non-climatic changes. Credit: Image courtesy of University of Southampton

Coastal regions under threat from climate change and sea-level rise need to tackle the more immediate threats of human-led and other non-climatic changes, according to a team of international scientists.

The team of 27 scientists from five continents, led by Dr Sally Brown at the University of Southampton, reviewed 24 years of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments (the fifth and latest set being published in 2013 and 2014). They focused on climate change and sea-level rise impacts in the coastal zone, and examined ways of how to better manage and cope with climate change.

They found that to better understand climate change and its impacts, scientists need to adopt an integrated approach into how coasts are changing. This involves recognising other causes of change, such as population growth, economic development and changes in biodiversity. Dr Brown emphasised that: "Over the last two and half decades, our scientific understanding of climate change and sea-level rise, and how it will affect coastal zones has greatly increased. We now recognise that we need to analyse all parts of our human and natural environments to understand how climate change will affect the world."

The scientists also acknowledged that long-term adaptation to climate change can greatly reduce impacts, but further research and evaluation is required to realise the potential of adaptation. "Many parts of the coast can, with forward planning, adapt to sea-level rise, but we need to better understand environments that will struggle to adapt, such as developing countries with large low-lying river deltas sensitive to salinisation, or coral reefs and particularly small, remote islands or poorer communities," said Dr Brown.

For example, in the Maldives, many small, remote low-lying islands are at risk from climate change and will struggle to adapt. But around the densely populated capital city and airport, adaptation has already occurred as land claim is a common practice in order to relive population pressure. Sea-level rise has already been considered into newly claimed land. 

Thus in decades to come, potential climate change impacts, such as flooding, will be reduced for this island, benefiting both the local population and economy.

Dr Jochen Hinkel from Global Climate Forum in Germany, who is a co-author of this paper and a Lead Author of the coastal chapter for the 2014 IPCC Assessment Report added: "The IPCC has done a great job in bringing together knowledge on climate change, sea-level rise and is potential impacts but now needs to complement this work with a solution-oriented perspective focusing on overcoming barriers to adaptation, mobilising resources, empowering people and discovering opportunities for strengthening coastal resilience in the context of both climate change as well as existing coastal challenges and other issues."

This new research, published as a commentary in Nature Climate Change, will help in the understanding of the impacts of climate change and how to reduce impacts via adaptation. Its multi-disciplinary approach could be useful if future IPCC assessment reports are commissioned.

Source: University of Southampton

U.S. releases enhanced shuttle land elevation data

Shaded relief images of deeply eroded volcanic terrain in northeast Tanzania demonstrate the improved nature of the highest-resolution SRTM data now being released. The image at left has data samples spaced every 90 meters (295 feet); the image at right has samples spaced every 30 meters (98 feet). Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/National Geospatial Intelligence Agency

High-resolution topographic data generated from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) in 2000, previously only available for the United States, will be released globally over the next year, the White House announced today. The announcement was made at the United Nations Heads of State Climate Summit in New York.

This initial public release of topographic data for Africa will help empower local authorities to better plan for the impacts of severe environmental changes such as drought, glacial retreat, inland flooding, landslides and coastal storm surges. Datasets covering the remaining continents will be made available within one year, with the next release of data focusing on Latin America and the Caribbean.

Lower-resolution SRTM topographic data having 90-meter (295-foot) pixels were released publicly in 2003 for many parts of the world, providing a global standard for many applications. The new data increase the detail to 30-meter (98-foot) pixel spacing, now revealing the full resolution of the world's landforms as originally measured by SRTM.

"The public availability of enhanced global SRTM topographic data will greatly benefit international efforts to better understand natural processes that shape our planet, prepare for and respond to natural hazards, and anticipate and prepare for the impacts of global change," said NASA Chief Scientist Ellen Stofan. "NASA is proud to have played a critical role in creating these data that will benefit society through open data sharing."

SRTM was a joint project of NASA, the German and Italian space agencies, and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. It was managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C. The newly released 30-meter topographic data products will be publicly distributed by the U.S.  

Geological Survey (USGS) along with the 90-meter data. These data are being made available via a user-friendly interface on USGS's Earth Explorer website.
SRTM flew aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour in February 2000, mapping Earth's topography between 56 degrees south and 60 degrees north of the equator. During the 11-day mission, SRTM used an imaging radar to map the surface of Earth numerous times from different perspectives. The combination of these radar data were processed at JPL to produce a global topographic map created by bouncing radar signals off Earth's surface and back to the shuttle.

Topographic data benefit a wide variety of activities, from aviation safety to civil engineering projects. Topography also strongly influences many natural processes, such as the distribution of plant communities and the associated animals that depend upon them, weather and rainfall patterns, and the flow and storage of surface water. The data aid in better understanding, predicting and responding to flooding from severe storms and the threats of coastal inundation associated with storm surge, tsunamis and sea-level rise.

Multiple training workshops on SRTM data are planned for users in Africa. The SERVIR program, a joint venture by NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development, is planning workshops in Eastern and Southern Africa with the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, and in West Africa with key environmental organizations. 

The Secure World Foundation is partnering with NASA, USGS and other members of the international Committee on Earth Observation Satellites to offer online training and regional workshops to further enable users to take advantage of these data resources. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

Source: NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Protect the world's deltas, experts urge

The Atchafalaya River delta meets the Gulf of Mexico. The view is upriver to the northwest. Credit: Photo courtesy A. Belala/U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Extensive areas of the world's deltas -- which accommodate major cities such as Shanghai, Dhaka and Bangkok -- will be drowned in the next century by rising sea levels, according to a Comment piece in this week's Nature. In the article, Dr. Liviu Giosan, a geologist with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), and colleagues call for maintenance efforts to be started now to avert the loss of vast expanses of coastline, and the consequent losses of ecological services, economic and social crises, and large-scale migrations.

The authors state the problems start upstream: deltas are built from sediments deposited at the mouths of rivers, but dams and river engineering have lowered rates of sediment flow. The Nile and the Indus, for example, carry 98 percent and 94 percent less mud respectively than they did 100 years ago. At the coast, rising seas resulting from warmer global temperatures are eroding delta plains, increasing the chance of flooding. Coastal lands lower than a meter in elevation will be inundated within a century.

Lack of quantitative knowledge of basic delta processes is hindering efforts to develop maintenance strategies for deltas, the authors say. At the same time, the role of healthy marshes in coastal processes needs to be more fully understood. Giosan and colleagues call for river sediment flows to be restored, and natural land-building methods to be exploited in delta plains under worldwide monitoring programs coordinated and guided by United Nations committee of experts.

Source: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Geologists discover ancient buried canyon in South Tibet

This photo shows the Yarlung Tsangpo Valley close to the Tsangpo Gorge, where it is rather narrow and underlain by only about 250 meters of sediments. The mountains in the upper left corner belong to the Namche Barwa massif. Previously, scientists had suspected that the debris deposited by a glacier in the foreground was responsible for the formation of the steep Tsangpo Gorge -- the new discoveries falsify this hypothesis. Credit: Ping Wang

A team of researchers from Caltech and the China Earthquake Administration has discovered an ancient, deep canyon buried along the Yarlung Tsangpo River in south Tibet, north of the eastern end of the Himalayas. The geologists say that the ancient canyon--thousands of feet deep in places--effectively rules out a popular model used to explain how the massive and picturesque gorges of the Himalayas became so steep, so fast.

"I was extremely surprised when my colleagues, Jing Liu-Zeng and Dirk Scherler, showed me the evidence for this canyon in southern Tibet," says Jean-Philippe Avouac, the Earle C. Anthony Professor of Geology at Caltech. "When I first saw the data, I said, 'Wow!' It was amazing to see that the river once cut quite deeply into the Tibetan Plateau because it does not today. That was a big discovery, in my opinion."

Geologists like Avouac and his colleagues, who are interested in tectonics--the study of the earth's surface and the way it changes--can use tools such as GPS and seismology to study crustal deformation that is taking place today. But if they are interested in studying changes that occurred millions of years ago, such tools are not useful because the activity has already happened. In those cases, rivers become a main source of information because they leave behind geomorphic signatures that geologists can interrogate to learn about the way those rivers once interacted with the land--helping them to pin down when the land changed and by how much, for example.

"In tectonics, we are always trying to use rivers to say something about uplift," Avouac says. 

"In this case, we used a paleocanyon that was carved by a river. It's a nice example where by recovering the geometry of the bottom of the canyon, we were able to say how much the range has moved up and when it started moving."

The team reports its findings in the current issue of Science.

Last year, civil engineers from the China Earthquake Administration collected cores by drilling into the valley floor at five locations along the Yarlung Tsangpo River. Shortly after, former Caltech graduate student Jing Liu-Zeng, who now works for that administration, returned to Caltech as a visiting associate and shared the core data with Avouac and Dirk Scherler, then a postdoc in Avouac's group. Scherler had previously worked in the far western Himalayas, where the Indus River has cut deeply into the Tibetan Plateau, and immediately recognized that the new data suggested the presence of a paleocanyon.

Liu-Zeng and Scherler analyzed the core data and found that at several locations there were sedimentary conglomerates, rounded gravel and larger rocks cemented together, that are associated with flowing rivers, until a depth of 800 meters or so, at which point the record clearly indicated bedrock. This suggested that the river once carved deeply into the plateau.

To establish when the river switched from incising bedrock to depositing sediments, they measured two isotopes, beryllium-10 and aluminum-26, in the lowest sediment layer. The isotopes are produced when rocks and sediment are exposed to cosmic rays at the surface and decay at different rates once buried, and so allowed the geologists to determine that the paleocanyon started to fill with sediment about 2.5 million years ago.

The researchers' reconstruction of the former valley floor showed that the slope of the river once increased gradually from the Gangetic Plain to the Tibetan Plateau, with no sudden changes, or knickpoints. Today, the river, like most others in the area, has a steep knickpoint where it meets the Himalayas, at a place known as the Namche Barwa massif. There, the uplift of the mountains is extremely rapid (on the order of 1 centimeter per year, whereas in other areas 5 millimeters per year is more typical) and the river drops by 2 kilometers in elevation as it flows through the famous Tsangpo Gorge, known by some as the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon because it is so deep and long.

Combining the depth and age of the paleocanyon with the geometry of the valley, the geologists surmised that the river existed in this location prior to about 3 million years ago, but at that time, it was not affected by the Himalayas. However, as the Indian and Eurasian plates continued to collide and the mountain range pushed northward, it began impinging on the river. Suddenly, about 2.5 million years ago, a rapidly uplifting section of the mountain range got in the river's way, damming it, and the canyon subsequently filled with sediment.

"This is the time when the Namche Barwa massif started to rise, and the gorge developed," says Scherler, one of two lead authors on the paper and now at the GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences in Potsdam, Germany.

That picture of the river and the Tibetan Plateau, which involves the river incising deeply into the plateau millions of years ago, differs quite a bit from the typically accepted geologic vision. Typically, geologists believe that when rivers start to incise into a plateau, they eat at the edges, slowly making their way into the plateau over time. However, the rivers flowing across the Himalayas all have strong knickpoints and have not incised much at all into the Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, the thought has been that the rapid uplift of the Himalayas has pushed the rivers back, effectively pinning them, so that they have not been able to make their way into the plateau. But that explanation does not work with the newly discovered paleocanyon.

The team's new hypothesis also rules out a model that has been around for about 15 years, called tectonic aneurysm, which suggests that the rapid uplift seen at the Namche Barwa massif was triggered by intense river incision. In tectonic aneurysm, a river cuts down through the earth's crust so fast that it causes the crust to heat up, making a nearby mountain range weaker and facilitating uplift.

The model is popular among geologists, and indeed Avouac himself published a modeling paper in 1996 that showed the viability of the mechanism. "But now we have discovered that the river was able to cut into the plateau way before the uplift happened," Avouac says, "and this shows that the tectonic aneurysm model was actually not at work here. The rapid uplift is not a response to river incision."

Source:  California Institute of Technology

New insights into origins of agriculture could help shape future of food

Wheat field (stock image). Agricultural decisions made by our ancestors more than 10,000 years ago could hold the key to food security in the future, according to new research by the University of Sheffield. Credit: © igor / Fotolia

Agricultural decisions made by our ancestors more than 10,000 years ago could hold the key to food security in the future, according to new research by the University of Sheffield.

Scientists, looking at why the first arable farmers chose to domesticate some cereal crops and not others, studied those that originated in the Fertile Crescent, an arc of land in western Asia from the Mediterranean Sea to the Persian Gulf.

They grew wild versions of what are now staple foods like wheat and barley along with other grasses from the region to identify the traits that make some plants suitable for agriculture, including how much edible seed the grasses produced and their architecture.

Dr Catherine Preece, who worked on the study with colleagues from the University's Department of Animal and Plant Sciences and Department of Archaeology, said: "Our results surprised us because numerous other grasses that our ancestors ate, but we do not, can produce just as much seed as wild wheat and barley. It is only when these plants are grown at high densities, similar to what we would find in fields, that the advantage of wild wheat and barley is revealed."

The study identified two key characteristics shared by the wild relatives of current crop plants. Firstly they have bigger seeds, which means they grow into bigger seedlings and are able to get more than their fair share of light and nutrients, and secondly, as adult plants they are less bushy than other grasses and package their big seeds onto fewer stems. This means crop wild relatives perform better than the other wild grasses that they are competing with and are better at growing close together in fields, making them ideal for using in agriculture.

"The results are important because our expanding human population is putting increasing demands on food production," said Dr Preece.

"Before humans learnt how to farm, our ancestors ate a much wider variety of grasses. If we can understand what traits have made some grasses into good crops then we can look for those characteristics in other plants and perhaps identify good candidates for future domestication."

She added: "To shape the future we must understand the past, so the more we can discover about the origins of agriculture, the more information we will have to help us tackle the challenges that face modern day food production."

So far the researchers have been conducting their experiments in greenhouses and their results indicate that the traits affecting how plants compete with each other are crucial factors to determining the success of a crop.

The team now plan to observe how the plants interact in their natural environment by growing them in experimental fields in Turkey, the heart of the Fertile Crescent. They hope that their experiments will yield another crop of important results.

"Cereal breeders are taking an increasing interest in modern crops' wild relatives as a source of useful traits that may help to increase yields or increase resilience to climate change, and our work should help in this process," said Dr Preece.

Dr Preece presented the results of this study to the joint British Ecological Society and the French Ecological Society 11 December 2014 in the Grand Palais, Lille.

Source: University of Sheffield

Desert streams: Deceptively simple

Dryland channels exhibit very simple topography despite being shaped by volatile rainstorms. Credit: Katerina Michaelides

Volatile rainstorms drive complex landscape changes in deserts, particularly in dryland channels, which are shaped by flash flooding. Paradoxically, such desert streams have surprisingly simple topography with smooth, straight and symmetrical form that until now has defied explanation.

That paradox has been resolved in newly published research conducted by Michael Singer and Katerina Michaelides, associate researchers at UC Santa Barbara's Earth Research Institute. The pair show that simple topography in dryland channels is maintained by complex interactions among rainstorms, the stream flows these storms generate in the river channel and sediment grains present on the riverbed. Their findings appear in the journal Geology.

Desert streams flow only during infrequent but intense rainstorms, and when they do, only parts of the channel contain water, making the flow irregular and erratic. One rainstorm may erode sediment grains in one section of the channel, while another storm moves sediment in a different area.

"Given this localized sediment movement during rainstorms, one might expect desert channels to contain mounds of sediment that undulate down the stream course reflecting the irregular flow, but they don't," Singer said. "The water produced in the channel only flows partially down the stream and then stops because it seeps into the riverbed, and there's not enough water from upstream to replace it, so it just disappears."

Because desert river channels do not feature the river bars, pools or riffles common in perennial streams, they decline in elevation downstream very smoothly. According to the researchers' findings, feedback between two variables -- complex water and sediment movements -- shape such basins.

Singer and Michaelides used data collected from the Rambla de Nogalte in southeastern Spain to model these dryland channel variables. The area has a semi-arid climate with mean annual rainfall of around 14 inches, which occurs during convective rainstorms, producing large floods that recur about once a decade.

They found that dryland channel width fluctuates downstream. Their observations show that grain size (roughness) also fluctuates from sand to gravel a downstream direction.

"There's feedback between this fluctuating width and fluctuating grain size," Singer said. "The stream flow is generated in a discontinuous pattern along the channel. Some rainstorms produce a bit of topography in some parts of the channel. Other spatial configurations of flow generated by storms destroy that topography so the variability of the rainstorms interacting with this channel are creating and destroying the topography constantly to keep it in this simple form."

Singer and Michaelides also produced simulations of extreme flows to determine the volume of flow necessary to reshape the channel completely. They examined the longitudinal variability of sediment flow as well as sediment storage to find the channel-shaping threshold. This threshold reshapes the entire channel and makes it smooth again. "It's a really significant threshold that tells us the magnitude of the flood necessary to reshape the channel," Singer said.

"Semi-arid and arid river systems are extremely important to the populations that live around them," he concluded. "Water resources are obviously a huge limitation in the development of societies, and a lot of water is being progressively diverted for irrigation, water use and other purposes, so those can further affect the spatial patterns of where flow is in these channels and potentially impact the processes of where topography develops in the river channel. Humans can inadvertently have an impact on the shape and form of river channels like these."

Source:  University of California - Santa Barbara

Deforestation threatens species richness in streams

In the catchment area of the river Yangtzekiang in Southern China deforestation takes place in order to gain arable land and build tea plantations. Credit: © M. Kuemmerlen

With a population of 1.3 billion, China is under immense pressure to convert suitable areas into arable land in order to ensure a continued food supply for its people. Accordingly, China is among the top countries in the world in terms of the extent and intensity of land use change. As shown in a new study by a team of scientists led by Dr. Britta Schmalz (Kiel University), in cooperation with Dr. Mathias Kuemmerlen, LOEWE Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F) and Dr. Sonja Jähnig, Leibniz-Institute for Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), deforestation may change the water surface runoff conditions, leading to a negative impact on the occurrence of microorganisms in rivers and streams.

Studies in a sub-basin of China's longest river

As part of this study, funded by the German Research Association (DFG), the team examined an area of about 1,700 square kilometers located in the Yangtzekiang River watershed, namely a tributary of the Poyang lake in Southern China. By using an ecohydrological model, it was possible to show how different land use types and intensity levels can influence the hydrological regime. The five scenarios that were studied encompassed three different deforestation and two afforestation scenarios. A medium deforestation rate, in which 53 percent of the forest is preserved (of the original 70 percent) and the remainder is used as agricultural land and for tea plantations, most closely approximates the ongoing expansion rate of agricultural areas in this Chinese region. This scenario was used to model the potential impact of these changes on the distribution of 72 species of invertebrates, known as stream macroinvertebrates.

Considerable range decreases for freshwater biota

Species rich stream reaches could become less frequent as a consequence of deforestation. Especially in areas where land use changes are expected to be most severe, is where insect larvae, snails, worms and leeches might become endangered. "As an example, we highlighted the distribution range of the stonefly Topoperla sp., based on a moderate rate of deforestation. As a result of the projected changes, its distribution range would decrease to a mere 15 percent of its current range," explains Mathias Kuemmerlen, BiK-F. Topoperla sp., as many other invertebrate microorganisms, is regarded as a water quality indicator. This leads to the conclusion that deforestation has a negative impact on the overall water quality.

Conversion to arable land changes the hydrological regime

In the present study, the cause for the decrease in species diversity is the changing hydrological regime resulting from the conversion of forest to arable land. According to the study, increasing deforestation causes, increased surface runoff, especially during the rainy season, which later flows on into streams and rivers. "In forested areas, surface water drains more slowly and in lower quantities; a significant percentage of the rain water is absorbed by the soil and by trees. Higher runoff rates may only be seen in floodplain forests, if at all. If forests are cut down and converted into fields, the surface runoff increases." says Kuemmerlen. If areas are afforested, the opposite trend occurs, allowing soils to store larger amounts of water again.

Land use change should be sustainable

The research team points out that the study's results offer a scientific basis for a sustainable landscape planning and management which takes into account the water cycle of the respective regions. The ultimate goal should be to use the limited resource "land" in a way that it ensures food security. . However, there must be room for the necessary adaptation measures in the face of global climate change. To certain degree this is supported by the preservation of forests in their role as runoff regulators and water reservoirs. Further modeling studies are being carried out elsewhere, also in Germany, in order to continue improving our knowledge on similar processes.

Source: Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum

Improving forecasts for rain-on-snow flooding

Flooding in January 2009 closed a section of Interstate 5 south of Seattle.Washington State Dept. of Transportation Credit: Image courtesy of University of Washington

Many of the worst West Coast winter floods pack a double punch. Heavy rains and melting snow wash down the mountains together to breach riverbanks, wash out roads and flood buildings.

These events are unpredictable and difficult to forecast. Yet they will become more common as the planet warms and more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow.

University of Washington mountain hydrology experts are using the physics behind these events to better predict the risks.

"One of the main misconceptions is that either the rain falls and washes the snow away, or that heat from the rain is melting the snow," said Nicholas Wayand, a UW doctoral student in civil and environmental engineering. He will present his research Dec. 18 at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

Most of the largest floods on record in the western U.S. are associated with rain falling on snow. But it's not that the rain is melting or washing away the snow.

Instead, it's the warm, humid air surrounding the drops that is most to blame for the melting, Wayand said. Moisture in the air condenses on the cold snow just like water droplets form on a cold drink can. The energy released when the humid air condenses is absorbed by the snow. The other main reason is that rainstorms bring warmer air, and this air blows across the snow to melt its surface. His work support previous research showing that these processes provide 60 to 90 percent of the energy for melting.

Places that experience rain-on-snow flooding are cities on rivers that begin in the mountains, such as Sacramento, California, and Centralia, Washington. In the 1997 New Year's Day flood in Northern California, melting snow exacerbated flooding, which broke levees and caused millions of dollars in damage. The biggest recent rain-on-snow event in Washington was the 2009 flood in the Snoqualmie basin. And the Calgary flood in summer of 2013 included snow from the Canadian Rockies that caused rivers to overflow their banks.
The UW researchers developed a model by recreating the 10 worst rain-on-snow flooding events between 1980 and 2008 in three regions: the Snoqualmie basin in Washington state, the upper San Joaquin basin in central California and the East North Fork of the Feather River basin in southern California.

Their results allow them to gauge the risks for any basin and any incoming storm. The three factors that matter most, they found, are the shape of the basin, the elevation of the rain-to-snow transition before and during the storm, and the amount of tree cover. Basins most vulnerable to snowmelt are treeless basins with a lot of area within the rain-snow transition zone, where the precipitation can fall as snow and then rain.

Trees reduce the risk of flooding because they slow the storm's winds.

"If you've ever been in a forest on a windy day, it's a lot calmer," Wayand said. That slows the energy transferred from condensation and from contact with warm air to the snowpack.
Simulations also show that meltwater accounted for up to about a quarter of the total flooding. That supports earlier research showing that snow is not the main contributor to rain-on-snow floods, but cannot be neglected since it adds water to an already heavy winter rainstorm.

The complexity of mountain weather also plays a role.

"The increase in precipitation with elevation is much greater than usual for some of these storms," said Jessica Lundquist, a UW associate professor of civil and environmental engineering. "Higher flows can result from heavier rainfall rates at higher elevations, rather than from snowmelt."

In related work, Lundquist's group has developed a tennis-ball snow sensor and is measuring growth and melt of the snowpack in the foothills east of Seattle. The scientists aim to better understand how changes in climate and forestry practices might affect municipal water supplies and flood risks.

Wayand and another student in the group have developed a high school curriculum for Seattle teachers to explain rain-on-snow events and the physics behind why they occur. They hope to begin teaching the curriculum sometime next year.

The other collaborator on the work being presented in San Francisco is Martyn Clark at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.

Source: University of Washington

'Tipping points' for sea level rise related flooding determined

Annapolis, Maryland, pictured here in 2012, is one of three major East Coast urban areas already being faced with nuisance flooding in excess of 30 days per year. Credit: With permission from Amy McGovern

By 2050, a majority of U.S. coastal areas are likely to be threatened by 30 or more days of flooding each year due to dramatically accelerating impacts from sea level rise, according to a new NOAA study, published today in the American Geophysical Union's online peer-reviewed journal Earth's Future.

The findings appear in the paper "From the Extreme to the Mean: Acceleration and Tipping Points for Coastal Inundation due to Sea Level Rise," and follows the earlier study, Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency Changes around the United States, by the report's co-author, William Sweet, Ph.D., oceanographer at NOAA's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). The new analysis was presented at a news conference today at the annual AGU fall meeting in San Francisco.

NOAA scientists Sweet and Joseph Park established a frequency-based benchmark for what they call "tipping points," when so-called nuisance flooding, defined by NOAA's National Weather Service as between one to two feet above local high tide, occurs more than 30 or more times a year.

Based on that standard, the NOAA team found that these tipping points will be met or exceeded by 2050 at most of the U.S. coastal areas studied, regardless of sea level rise likely to occur this century. In their study, Sweet and Park used a 1½ to 4 foot set of recent projections for global sea level rise by year 2100 similar to the rise projections of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, but also accounting for local factors such as the settlement of land, known as subsidence.

These regional tipping points will be surpassed in the coming decades in areas with more frequent storms, the report said. These tipping points will be also be exceeded in areas where local sea levels rise more than the global projection of one and half to four feet. This also includes coastal areas like Louisiana where subsidence, which is not a result of by climate change, is causing land to sink below sea level.

NOAA tide gauges show the annual rate of daily floods reaching these levels has drastically increased -- often accelerating -- and are now five to ten times more likely today than they were 50 years ago.

"Coastal communities are beginning to experience sunny-day nuisance or urban flooding, much more so than in decades past," said Sweet. "This is due to sea level rise. Unfortunately, once impacts are noticed, they will become commonplace rather quickly. We find that in 30 to 40 years, even modest projections of global sea level rise -- 1½ feet by the year 2100 -- will increase instances of daily high tide flooding to a point requiring an active, and potentially costly response, and by the end of this century, our projections show that there will be near-daily nuisance flooding in most of the locations that we reviewed."

"Communities across the country become increasingly vulnerable to water inundation and flooding, effective risk management is going to become more heavily reliant on environmental data and analysis," said Holly Bamford, Ph.D., NOAA acting assistant secretary for conservation and management. "Businesses, coastal managers, federal, state, and local governments, and non-governmental organizations can use research such as this as another tool as they develop plans to reduce vulnerabilities, adapt to change, and ensure they're resilient against future events."

"The importance of this research is that it draws attention to the largely neglected part of the frequency of these events. This frequency distribution includes a hazard level referred to as 'nuisance': occasionally costly to clean up, but never catastrophic or perhaps newsworthy," said Earth's Future editor Michael Ellis in accepting the paper for the online journal.

Ellis also observed that "the authors use observational data to drive home the important point that nuisance floods (from inundating seas) will cross a tipping point over the next several decades and significantly earlier than the 2100 date that is generally regarded as a target date for damaging levels of sea-level. The paper also raises the interesting question of what frequency of 'nuisance' corresponds to a perception of 'this is no longer a nuisance but a serious hazard due to its rapidly growing and cumulative impacts'."

The scientists base the projections on NOAA tidal stations where there is a 50-year or greater continuous record. The study does not include the Miami area, as the NOAA tide stations in the area were destroyed by Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and a continuous 50-year data set for the area does not exist.

Based on that criteria, the NOAA team is projecting that Boston; New York City; Philadelphia; Baltimore; Washington, D.C.; Norfolk, Virginia; and Wilmington, North Carolina; all along the Mid-Atlantic coast, will soon make, or are already being forced to make, decisions on how to mitigate these nuisance floods earlier than planned. In the Gulf, NOAA forecasts earlier than anticipated floods for Galveston Bay and Port Isabel, Texas. Along the Pacific coast the earlier impacts will be most visible in the San Diego/La Jolla and San Francisco Bay areas.

Mitigation decisions could range from retreating further inland to coastal fortification or to a combination of "green" infrastructure using both natural resources such as dunes and wetland, along with "gray" human-made infrastructure such as sea walls and redesigned storm water systems.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Colorado River Delta greener after engineered pulse of water

Water being released from Morelos Dam in the first environmental release of water to the Colorado River Delta. The Minute 319 pulse flow of water started March 23, 2014 and ended May 18, 2014. Credit: Rebecca Lester, Deakin University, Australia

The engineered spring flood that brought water to previously dry reaches of the lower Colorado River and its delta resulted in greener vegetation, the germination of new vegetation along the river and a temporary rise in the water table, according to new results from the binational team of scientists studying the water's effects.

The experimental pulse flow of water was the result of a U.S.-Mexico agreement called Minute 319.

"The pulse flow worked," said Karl W. Flessa, co-chief scientist for the Minute 319 Science Team. "A small amount of water can have a big effect on the delta's ecosystem."Starting March 23, 2014, and ending May 18, approximately 105,392 acre-feet (130 million cubic meters) of water was released into the dry river bed below Morelos Dam, which straddles the U.S.-Mexico border just west of Yuma.

"The groundwater was recharged, vegetation got greener than previous years and the water helped germinate new native vegetation," said Flessa, a University of Arizona professor of geosciences. "As a bonus, the river reached the sea."

In addition, people living along the river benefited, he said.

"People in the communities along the river were just overjoyed to see their river again," he said. "When the surface water was there, people celebrated. Kids who'd never seen water in the river before got to splash in it."

The science team includes more than 21 scientists from universities, government agencies and nongovernmental organizations from both Mexico and the U.S, including the UA, the Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, The Nature Conservancy, the Tucson-based Sonoran Institute and the Ensenada-based Pronatura Noroeste.

Flessa will present the team's findings at his talk, "The Science and Policy of the First Environmental Flows to the Colorado River Delta," on Dec. 18 as part of the American Geophysical Union's annual meeting in San Francisco.

Although most of the water soaked into the ground in the 37 miles (60 km) below the dam, the river's surface flow reached areas farther downstream that had been targeted for restoration. The increase in groundwater revived vegetation along the entire 83-mile (134 km) route to the sea.

By comparing Landsat 8 satellite images from August 2013 with those from August 2014, team members calculated a 23 percent increase in the greenness of riparian zone vegetation.
Although the groundwater did eventually recede, the surface water caused the germination of new willows and cottonwoods. Those plants germinate after natural spring floods, and their roots can grow fast enough to keep up with the receding water table.

The surface water reached the restoration sites prepared by the Sonoran Institute and Pronatura Noroeste and helped establish native vegetation.

"So long as the roots get down into the permanent water table, then you have established a new bunch of trees that will then live for 20, 30, 40 years," Flessa said. "Those trees will attract birds."

The scientists already observed an increase in the numbers of birds, he said.
Learning where the newly germinated plants survived past the first summer will help the researchers figure out where ecosystem restoration will do the most good using the least amount of water, he said.

"The water that soaked into the ground is also good for the farmers," Flessa said. "It raises the water table and they pump that water -- so this isn't just about trees and birds."
The team will continue to monitor the lower Colorado River Delta's vegetation and hydrological response to the pulse flow, including the long-term effect on groundwater. They will also study how the new vegetation affects both resident birds and those migrating along the Pacific Flyway.

The five-year program to monitor the environmental results of the pulse flow is being supported by government agencies and environmental groups in both countries, under the auspices of the International Boundary and Water Commission.

The Minute 319 pulse flow is part of a five-year agreement (2012-17) adopted by the International Boundary and Water Commission, under the framework of a 1944 U.S. -- Mexico treaty that governs water allocations on the Colorado River between the two countries.

The agreement provides multiple benefits for Colorado River water users in both countries, including environmental flows to the delta. Minute 319 identifies criteria for sharing of future water shortages and surpluses between the two countries, allows storage of Mexican water in Lake Mead and supports improvements to Mexican irrigation infrastructure.
"Another pulse flow would require a new agreement, because Minute 319 calls for only one pulse flow within the five-year term of the minute," Flessa said. "We hope the results of this pulse flow encourage the negotiators to make this happen again."

Source: University of Arizona

Centuries of sand still available at Mississippi Delta

These satellite images show a portion of the Mississippi River downstream of Memphis, Tenn., in August 2012 (top) and August 2011 (bottom). During the drought of 2012, record low-water levels revealed vast amounts of sand that are typically hidden below water. New research finds that the river’s supply of sand — the material engineers most need to rebuild the shrinking Mississippi Delta — will stay constant for centuries.

The wetlands of the Mississippi River Delta are slowly sinking and rapidly eroding, but new research from Rice University and the University of South Carolina has found the river's supply of sand -- the material engineers most need to rebuild the delta -- will stay constant for centuries.

The new study, which appears online this week in Nature Geoscience, is encouraging news for scientists and government officials who are working to shore up southeastern Louisiana's rapidly disappearing wetlands. The delta sinks each year as its soil settles and becomes more compact. While floodwaters from the untamed Mississippi River formerly provided a steady supply of sediment to counteract this subsidence, engineers have fought for nearly a century to contain the floods, which threaten the lives and livelihood of millions. Flood-control measures have eliminated about half of the annual supply of sediment that flows downriver, but the new study finds that sand -- they key ingredient for rebuilding marshlands -- is still abundant.

"It's true that the total amount of sediment has diminished, but river sediment contains both fine-grained mud and course-grained sand, and our research found that upstream dam construction has not reduced the amount of sand in the lower Mississippi and won't for at least 300-600 years," said study lead author Jeffrey Nittrouer, assistant professor of Earth science at Rice University.

Nittrouer and co-author Enrica Viparelli, assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of South Carolina, analyzed sediment loads in the lower Mississippi and found that while the total amount of sediment -- both sand and mud -- has diminished, the amount of sand trapped by upstream dams is offset by "mining" of new sand downstream.

"When clear water is released from the floodgates at upstream dams, it churns dormant sand that has long been deposited and carries it downriver," Nittrouer said. "This 'mining' of ancient sand makes up for the sand that is trapped by upstream dams, and our numerical models suggest that the sand load in the lower Mississippi River channel will not decline for at least 300 years. Looking even further into the future, we found that 600 years from now, the lower Mississippi River's sand sediment load will have declined by less than 20 percent from today's levels."

Nittrouer, whose research focuses on the sediment transport, hydrology, basin evolution and stratigraphy of lowland river systems, has studied the Mississippi River for the past decade. His previous work included a 2012 study of the land-building processes that took place during the historic flooding of 2011. In one of the largest floodwater diversions of the past century, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers opened the Bonnet Carré Spillway, a 7,000-foot-wide "safety valve" that diverts floodwater directly to Lake Ponchatrain.

Nittrouer and colleagues found that even though the 42-day diversion siphoned off less than 20 percent of the water flowing downriver, it diverted about 40 percent of the river's sand load into Bonnet Carré. In analyzing how this occurred, Nittrouer and colleagues were able to show what factors the corps should consider in designing sediment diversion projects for wetlands replenishment.

"Our previous work showed how large volumes of sand could be deposited in specific locations, and our latest research shows that significant volumes of sand will be available for land-building for several centuries," Nittrouer said. "Each of these are important because studies at Wax Lake Delta and other sites have shown that sand -- even though it makes up less than 20 percent of the overall river sediment load -- is the key ingredient for land-building."

Source: Rice University

The Severe drought is causing the western US to rise like a spring uncoiling

Maps of GPS points in the western United States, with blue indicating a drop and yellow-red reflecting a rise.
Credit: Image courtesy of University of California - San Diego

The severe drought gripping the western United States in recent years is changing the landscape well beyond localized effects of water restrictions and browning lawns. Scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego have now discovered that the growing, broad-scale loss of water is causing the entire western U.S. to rise up like an uncoiled spring.

Investigating ground positioning data from GPS stations throughout the west, Scripps researchers Adrian Borsa, Duncan Agnew, and Dan Cayan found that the water shortage is causing an "uplift" effect up to 15 millimeters (more than half an inch) in California's mountains and on average four millimeters (0.15 of an inch) across the west. From the GPS data, they estimate the water deficit at nearly 240 gigatons (62 trillion gallons of water), equivalent to a six-inch layer of water spread out over the entire western U.S.

Adrian Borsa, an assistant research geophysicist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego.

Results of the study, which was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), appear in the August 21 online edition of the journal Science.

While poring through various sets of data of ground positions from highly precise GPS stations within the National Science Foundation's Plate Boundary Observatory and other networks, Borsa, a Scripps assistant research geophysicist, kept noticing the same pattern over the 2003-2014 period: All of the stations moved upwards in the most recent years, coinciding with the timing of the current drought.
Agnew, a Scripps Oceanography geophysics professor who specializes in studying earthquakes and their impact on shaping Earth's crust, says the GPS data can only be explained by rapid uplift of the tectonic plate upon which the western U.S. rests (Agnew cautions that the uplift has virtually no effect on the San Andreas fault and therefore does not increase the risk of earthquakes).

For Cayan, a research meteorologist with Scripps and USGS, the results paint a new picture of the dire hydrological state of the west.

"These results quantify the amount of water mass lost in the past few years," said Cayan. "It also represents a powerful new way to track water resources over a very large landscape. We can home in on the Sierra Nevada mountains and critical California snowpack. These results demonstrate that this technique can be used to study changes in fresh water stocks in other regions around the world, if they have a network of GPS sensors."

The study was supported by USGS National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

Source: University of California - San Diego

The Oso disaster had its roots in earlier landslides

An aerial view of the slide site at Oso, Washington, from March 31, 2014. Credit: Gordon Farquharson / UW

The disastrous March 22 landslide that killed 43 people in the rural Washington state community of Oso involved the "remobilization" of a 2006 landslide on the same hillside, a new federally sponsored geological study concludes.

The research indicates the landslide, the deadliest in U.S. history, happened in two major stages. The first stage remobilized the 2006 slide, including part of an adjacent forested slope from an ancient slide, and was made up largely or entirely of deposits from previous landslides. The first stage ultimately moved more than six-tenths of a mile across the north fork of the Stillaguamish River and caused nearly all the destruction in the Steelhead Haven neighborhood.

The second stage started several minutes later and consisted of ancient landslide and glacial deposits. That material moved into the space vacated by the first stage and moved rapidly until it reached the trailing edge of the first stage, the study found.

The report, released Tuesday on the four-month anniversary of the slide, details an investigation by a team from the Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance Association, or GEER. The scientists and engineers determined that intense rainfall in the three weeks before the slide likely was a major issue, but factors such as altered groundwater migration, weakened soil consistency because of previous landslides and changes in hillside stresses played key roles.

The extreme events group is funded by the National Science Foundation, and its goal is to collect perishable data immediately in the wake of extreme events such as earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, landslides or floods. Recent events for which reports have been filed include earthquakes in New Zealand and Haiti, the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and Hurricane Sandy on the U.S. Eastern Seaboard in 2012.

"Perhaps the most striking finding is that, while the Oso landslide was a rare geologic occurrence, it was not extraordinary," said Joseph Wartman, a University of Washington associate professor of civil and environmental engineering and a team leader for the study.

"We observed several other older but very similar long-runout landslides in the surrounding Stillaguamish River Valley. This tells us these may be prevalent in this setting over long time frames. Even the apparent trigger of the event -- several weeks of intense rainfall -- was not truly exceptional for the region," Wartman said.

Team co-leader Jeffrey Keaton, a principal engineering geologist with AMEC Americas, an engineering consultant and project management company, said another important finding is that spring of 2014 was not a big time for landslides in Northwest Washington.

"The Oso landslide was the only major one that occurred in Snohomish County or the Seattle area this spring," Keaton said.

Other team members are Scott Anderson of the Federal Highway Administration, Jean Benoit of the University of New Hampshire, John deLaChapelle of Golder Associates Inc., Robert Gilbert of the University of Texas and David Montgomery of the University of Washington.

The team was formed and approved within days of the landslide, but it began work at the site about eight weeks later, after search and recovery activities were largely completed. The researchers documented conditions and collected data that could be lost over time. Their report is based largely on data collected during a four-day study of the entire landslide area in late May. It focuses on data and observations directly from the site, but also considers information such as local geologic and climate conditions and eyewitness accounts.

The researchers reviewed evidence for a number of large landslides in the Stillaguamish Valley around Oso during the previous 6,000 years, many of them strongly resembling the site of the 2014 slide. There is solid evidence, for example, of a slide just west of this year's slide that also ran out across the valley. In addition, they reviewed published maps showing the entire valley bottom in the Oso area is made up of old landslide deposits or areas where such deposits have been reworked by the river and left on the flood plain.

The team estimated that large landslides such as the March event have happened in the same area as often as every 400 years (based on 15 mapped large landslides) to every 1,500 years (based on carbon dating of what appears to be the oldest of four generations of large slides) during the last six millennia.
The researchers found that the size of the landslide area grew slowly starting in the 1930s until 2006, when it increased dramatically. That was followed by this year's catastrophically larger slide.

Studies in previous decades indicated a high landslide risk for the Oso area, the researchers found, but they noted that it does not appear there was any publicly communicated understanding that debris from a landslide could run as far across the valley as it did in March. In addition to the fatalities, that event seriously injured at least 10 people and caused damage estimated at more than $50 million.

"For me, the most important finding is that we must think about landslides in the context of 'risk' rather than 'hazard,'" Wartman said. "While these terms are often used interchangeably, there is a subtle but important difference. Landslide hazard, which was well known in the region, tells us the likelihood that a landslide will occur, whereas landslide risk tells us something far more important -- the likelihood that human losses will occur as a result of a landslide.

"From a policy perspective, I think it is very important that we begin to assess and clearly communicate the risks from landslides," he said.

Other study conclusions include:
• That past landslides and associated debris deposited by water should be carefully investigated
  when mapping areas for zoning purposes.
• That the influence of precipitation on destabilizing a slope should consider both cumulative amounts
  and short-duration intensities in assessing the likelihood of initial or renewed slope movement.
• That methods to identify and delineate potential landslide runout zones need to be revisited and
  re-evaluated.

The report is available at
http://www.geerassociation.org/GEER_Post%20EQ%20Reports/Oso_WA_2014/index.html

The Disaster planning: Risk assessment vital to development of mitigation plans

Wildfires and flooding affect many more people in the USA than earthquakes and landslide and yet the dread, the perceived risk, of the latter two is much greater than for those hazards that are more frequent and cause greater loss of life. Research published in the International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, suggests that a new paradigm for risk assessment is needed so that mitigation plans in the face of natural disasters can be framed appropriately by policy makers and those in the emergency services.

Maura Knutson (nee Hurley) and Ross Corotis of the University of Colorado, Boulder, explain that earlier efforts for incorporating a sociological perspective and human risk perception into hazard-mitigation plans, commonly used equivalent dollar losses from natural hazard events as the statistic by which to make decisions. Unfortunately, this fails to take into consideration how people view natural hazards, the team reports. Moreover, this can lead to a lack of public support and compliance with emergency plans when disaster strikes and lead to worse outcomes in all senses.

The researchers have therefore developed a framework that combines the usual factors for risk assessment, injuries, deaths and economic and collateral loss with the human perception of the risks associated with natural disasters. The framework includes risk perception by graphing natural hazards against "dread" and "familiarity." These two variables are well known to social psychologists as explaining the greatest variability in an individual's perception of risk, whether considering earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, flooding, avalanche, even volcanic activity. "Understanding how the public perceives the risk for various natural hazards can assist decision makers in developing and communicating policy decisions," the team says.

The higher the perceived risk of a natural disaster, the more people want to see that risk reduced and that means seeing their tax dollars spent on mitigation and preparation. For example, far more money is spent on reducing earthquake risk than on reducing the risk from wildfires, perhaps because the perceived risk is much greater, even though both will cause significant losses of life and property. The team's new framework for risk assessment will act as an aid in decision making for these types of situations as well as perhaps even offering a way to give members of the public a clearer understanding of actual risk rather than perceived risk.

Source: Inderscience Publishers