NOAA joins with Princeton and other institutions in six-year study to help public better understand Southern Ocean

NOAA is one of 10 institutions working together on the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling program, or SOCCOM, a six-year, $21 million initiative to improve our understanding of the importance and health of the Southern Ocean encircling Antarctica. (Image by Oscar Schofield, Rutgers University)

The Southern Ocean that encircles Antarctica lends a considerable hand in keeping Earth's temperature hospitable by soaking up half of the human-made carbon in the atmosphere and a majority of the planet's excess heat. Yet, the inner workings — and global importance — of this ocean that accounts for 30 percent of the world's ocean area remains relatively unknown to scientists, as observations remain hindered by dangerous seas.

NOAA is one of 10 institutions working together on the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling program, or SOCCOM, a six-year, $21 million initiative to improve our understanding of the importance and health of the Southern Ocean encircling Antarctica. (Image by Oscar Schofield, Rutgers University)

Princeton University, NOAA and eight other partner institutions now seek to make the Southern Ocean better known scientifically and publicly through a $21 million program that will create a biogeochemical and physical portrait of the ocean using hundreds of robotic floats deployed around Antarctica and an expanded computational capacity. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling program, or SOCCOM, is a six-year initiative headquartered at Princeton and funded by the National Science Foundation’s Division of Polar Programs, with additional support from the NOAA and NASA. The U.S. Argo program, led by CPO's Steven Piotrowicz, will play a major role in the project. 

"The scarcity of observations in the Southern Ocean and inadequacy of earlier models, combined with its importance to the Earth's carbon and climate systems, means there is tremendous potential for groundbreaking research in this region," Sarmiento said.
Central to the program are roughly 200 floats outfitted with biogeochemical sensors that will provide almost continuous information related to the ocean's carbon, nutrient (nitrate, in particular) and oxygen content, both at and deep beneath the surface. The floats are augmented biogeochemical versions of the nearly 4,000 Argo floats deployed worldwide to measure ocean salinity and temperature. SOCCOM marks the first large-scale deployment of these biogeochemical floats.

"These floats are revolutionary and this major new observational initiative will give us unprecedented year-round coverage of biogeochemistry in the Southern Ocean," Sarmiento said.

The Southern Ocean research will involve using Argo type floats equipped with new sensors that measure pH, nitrates in addition to temperature and salinity. (NOAA)

The floats will increase the monthly data currently coming out of the Southern Ocean by 10 to 30 times, Sarmiento said. That data will be used to improve recently developed high-resolution earth-system models, which will allow for a better understanding of the Southern Ocean and for better projections of Earth’s climate and biogeochemical trajectory. In keeping with SOCCOM's knowledge sharing, or "broader impacts," component, all the information collected will be freely available to the public, researchers and industry.

SOCCOM will provide direct observations to further understand the importance of the Southern Ocean as suggested by models and ocean studies. Aside from carbon and heat uptake, models have indicated that the Southern Ocean delivers nutrients to lower-latitude surface waters that are critical to ocean ecosystems around the world. In addition, the impacts of ocean acidification as levels of carbon dioxide in atmosphere increase are projected to be most severe in the Southern Ocean.

Other than administering the project, Sarmiento and other Princeton researchers will co-lead the modeling and broader impacts components, as well as coordinated data management. Researchers from NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory housed on Princeton's Forrestal Campus will carry out high-resolution earth-system simulations in support of the modeling effort, which is led by the University of Arizona and includes collaborators from the University of Miami.

The floats will be constructed at the University of Washington with sensors from the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute; NOAA’s Climate Program Office will provide half of the basic Argo floats. Float deployment, observation analysis and data assimilation will be led by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California-San Diego. Climate Central, a non-profit science and journalism organization based in Princeton, will oversee the broader-impacts component. Researchers from Oregon State University and NOAA will develop the floats’ carbon algorithms.

“The SOCCOM effort is the first systematic expansion of the US Argo program into biogeochemistry. The unique subsurface ocean observations from SOCCOM will contribute towards our efforts to observe the global oceans,” said David Legler, director of NOAA’s Climate Observations Division.

In addition, NASA will support a complementary project involving researchers at the University of Maine and Rutgers University that will equip the floats with bio-optical sensors intended to gather data about biological processes in the water column.

This web story was written by Morgan Kelly, science writer for Princeton University, and includes an additional quote from NOAA's David Legler

Source: NOAA

Pilot plant for removal of extreme gas charges from deep waters

Pit Lake Guadiana in the former mining area Herrerias in Andalusia, Spain.
Credit: : Bertram Boehrer/UFZ

Being part of the mining area Herrerias in Andalusia, deep waters of Pit Lake Guadiana show extremely high concentration of dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2). In the case of a spontaneous ebullition, human beings close-by would be jeopardized. To demonstrate the danger and the possible solution, scientists of the Spanish Institute of Geology and Mining, the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU, Bilbao) and the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) constructed a pilot plant for degassing. A fountain pulls deep water through a pipe to the surface, where the gas can escape from the water. The buoyancy produced by the bubbles provides the energy required for driving the flow.

"The deep water in the residual lake Guadiana contains an extremely high volume of carbon dioxide (CO2). Oxidation of ores has created a very acidic milieu, which is also known from other mining areas. In the mining area Herrerias however, this acidity dissolves carbonate from the rocks and produces carbonic acid (dissolved CO2), which can be accumulated under the high pressures of deep waters in the lake. There is not much circulation beyond 25 meter depth to remove the gas load" says Dr. Bertram Boehrer of UFZ, who is physicist and has been investigating stratification in lakes at many places on Earth. Due to the high hydrostatic pressure, each liter of deep water contains about 2.5 liters of CO2 gas. As long as the stratification remains stable, the gas is retained in the deep water. A land slide or other processes producing large water movements could facilitate a sudden release of gas previously confined under high pressure. Inhaled air of 8 percent CO2 are considered deadly for humans.

Now the scientists installed a degasing pipe which is the heart of the new pilot plant: Deep water enters a pipe at 61m depth. On the way up, hydrostatic pressure drops and gas bubbles form. The reduced density of the water-gas-mixture allows that deep water is pushed out of the pipe at the upper end to form a fountain above the water table, where gas is released to the atmosphere. This is an elegant solution, as the system does not require any additional driver, and the controlled release of CO2 does not pose any problem. "With this pilot plant, we could demonstrate that this approach also works in Guadiana pit lake. This can now be proposed to authorities as a possible approach to deal with the gas load." Though the lake in the mining area is fenced and access is not permitted to the public, this prohibition is difficult to survey.

Earlier installations in Lake Nyos in Cameroon served as a good example for this approach. In this lake, degassing pipes had been installed, which released the gas load with three fountains. On August 21st 1986, a large volume of gas escaped from the lake suddenly. The gas entered valleys of the surrounding area. 1700 human beings and thousands of animals were killed. The trigger could have been a land slide though this was never really proven. To avoid a repetition of this disaster, the gas load is slowly removed from the lake. One more crater lake called Monoun in Cameroon suffocated 37 human beings close to its shores in a similar eruption. Also in Monoun degasing fountains have been installed.

In Guadiana pit lake we do not see the same danger as in Lake Nyos, due to smaller size and depth. In addition, a density gradient between surface waters and deep waters is keeping the system stable. However, gas concentrations are so high that precaution must be taken. More detailed investigations must be implemented and remediation must be considered, says Dr. Boehrer. For the formation of such extreme gas loads, lakes must be sufficiently deep with incomplete winter recirculation (meromixis) and a strong carbon dioxide source. At the moment, we do not have such a lake in Germany.

Source: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ

Live fast, die young: Soil microbes in a warmer world

Aerial view of the Northern Minnesota landscape including numerous conifer peatlands, deciduous uplands and lakes. Credit: USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station

Warmer temperatures shorten the lifespan of soil microbes and this may affect soil carbon storage, according to a new NSF-funded study published in Nature Climate Change this week.

A research team led by Shannon Hagerty and Paul Dijkstra from Northern Arizona University measured two key characteristics of soil microbes that determine their role in the soil carbon cycle: how efficiently they use carbon to grow and how long they live. "Higher temperatures make microbes grow faster, but they also die faster," said Hagerty, who conducted the research as part of her master's degree and was lead author on the study.

Soil microbes consume organic carbon compounds in soil, use some of it to make more microbes and release the rest to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. The efficiency with which microbes use their food to make new microbes affects how much carbon remains in soil, and how much is released back to the atmosphere. The accepted idea before this study was that microbes would become less efficient at warmer temperatures.

The scientists incubated soil from a peatland and a forest in Minnesota at different temperatures and measured the efficiency with which microbes grew. They used a new method to measure microbial efficiency: they added small amounts of sugar and tracked how individual atoms in this sugar were turned into carbon dioxide.

"Microbes process sugars in similar ways as we do," says Paul Dijkstra. "We know very well how these processes work in laboratory studies, and can predict which carbon atoms in sugar molecules end up as carbon dioxide, and which are used to build new microbes. We applied this knowledge to the microbes living in soil."

The researchers found, contrary to expectation, that temperature had no effect on how microbes utilized their food, but instead boosted microbial death. "We don't yet know why microbes are dying faster at higher temperatures. Maybe they are eaten by nematodes or mites, or they die because of viruses," said Hagerty. "We need to know more about how temperature affects microbial death."

To explore what these new findings could mean for soil carbon storage in a warming world, the team compared output from a soil model that includes the effect of temperature on microbial lifespan to models unaffected by temperature change. "Models are used to predict how soil processes change, for example, in response to climate change," said Steve Allison, coauthor from the University of California, Irvine. "If we want to predict the future correctly, we'd better use models that accurately describe these microbial processes."

Including a temperature-dependent lifespan to the model increased the amount of carbon retained in soils at warmer temperatures compared to estimates from traditional models. The study concludes that incorporating this new insight into soil models will improve our understanding of how soils influence atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and global climate.

Does this mean that with climate change, more carbon will stay in the soil? "Too early to tell," said Bruce Hungate, Director of the Center for Ecosystem Science and Society at NAU. 

"The results suggest that the biochemistry of the microbes remains the same with warmer temperature, but that predation and death become more important. This laboratory study is just the first step, identifying a potential mechanism. Now we need to study how, in the real world, and in the long-term, the processes of biochemical efficiency and lifespan will change. And nobody has done that yet."

Source: Northern Arizona University

Sunlight, not microbes, key to carbon dioxide in Arctic

Terrestrial organic matter is shown spilling into a lake. Credit: Image courtesy of Oregon State University

The vast reservoir of carbon stored in Arctic permafrost is gradually being converted to carbon dioxide (CO2) after entering the freshwater system in a process thought to be controlled largely by microbial activity.

However, a new study -- funded by the National Science Foundation and published this week in the journal Science -- concludes that sunlight and not bacteria is the key to triggering the production of CO2 from material released by Arctic soils.

The finding is particularly important, scientists say, because climate change could affect when and how permafrost is thawed, which begins the process of converting the organic carbon into CO2.

"Arctic permafrost contains about half of all the organic carbon trapped in soil on the entire Earth -- and equals an amount twice of that in the atmosphere," said Byron Crump, an Oregon State University microbial ecologist and co-author on the Science study. "This represents a major change in thinking about how the carbon cycle works in the Arctic."

Converting soil carbon to carbon dioxide is a two-step process, notes Rose Cory, an assistant professor of earth and environmental sciences at the University of Michigan, and lead author on the study. First, the permafrost soil has to thaw and then bacteria must turn the carbon into greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide or methane. While much of this conversion process takes place in the soil, a large amount of carbon is washed out of the soils and into rivers and lakes, she said.

"It turns out, that in Arctic rivers and lakes, sunlight is faster than bacteria at turning organic carbon into CO2," Cory said. "This new understanding is really critical because if we want to get the right answer about how the warming Arctic may feedback to influence the rest of the world, we have to understand the controls on carbon cycling.

"In other words, if we only consider what the bacteria are doing, we'll get the wrong answer about how much CO2 may eventually be released from Arctic soils," Cory added.

The research team measured the speed at which both bacteria and sunlight converted dissolved organic carbon into carbon dioxide in all types of rivers and lakes in the Alaskan Arctic, from glacial-fed rivers draining the Brooks Range to tannin-stained lakes on the coastal plain. Measuring these processes is important, the scientists noted, because bacteria types and activities are variable and the amount of sunlight that reaches the carbon sources can differ by body of water.

In virtually all of the freshwater systems they measured, however, sunlight was always faster than bacteria at converting the organic carbon into CO2.

"This is because most of the fresh water in the Arctic is shallow, meaning sunlight can reach the bottom of any river -- and most lakes -- so that no dissolved organic carbon is kept in the dark," said Crump, an associate professor in Oregon State's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. "Also, there is little shading of rivers and lakes in the Arctic because there are no trees."

Another factor limiting the microbial contribution is that bacteria grow more slowly in these cold, nutrient-rich waters.

"Light, therefore, can have a tremendous effect on organic matter," University of Michigan's Cory pointed out.

The source of all of this organic carbon is primarily tundra plants -- and it has been building up for hundreds of thousands of years, but doesn't completely break down immediately because of the Arctic's cold temperatures. Once the plant material gets deep enough into the soil, the degradation stops and it becomes preserved, much like peat.

"The level of thawing only gets to be a foot deep or so, even in the summer," Crump said. "Right now, the thaw begins not long before the summer solstice. If the seasons begin to shift with climate change -- and the thaw begins earlier, exposing the organic carbon from permafrost to more sunlight -- it could potentially trigger the release of more CO2."

The science community has not yet been able to accurately calculate how much organic carbon from the permafrost is being converted into CO2, and thus it will be difficult to monitor potential changes because of climate change, they acknowledge.

"We have to assume that as more material thaws and enters Arctic lakes and rivers, more will be converted to CO2," Crump said. "The challenge is how to quantify that."

Some of the data for the study was made available through the National Science Foundation's Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research project, which has operated in the Arctic for nearly 30 years.

Source:  Oregon State University

Permafrost soil: Possible source of abrupt rise in greenhouse gases at end of last ice age

Pleistocene Ice Complex cliff: 35 meters high Pleistocene Ice Complex cliff at Sobo Sise Island (Lena Delta), Siberian Arctic. Credit: Alfred-Wegener-Institut / Thomas Opel

Scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) have identified a possible source of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases that were abruptly released to the atmosphere in large quantities around 14,600 years ago. According to this new interpretation, the CO2 -- released during the onset of the Bølling/Allerød warm period -- presumably had their origin in thawing Arctic permafrost soil and amplified the initial warming through positive feedback. The study now appears online in the journal Nature Communications.

One of the most abrupt rises in the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere at the end of the last ice age took place about 14,600 years ago. Ice core data show that the CO2 concentration at that time increased by more than 10 ppm (parts per million, unit of measure for the composition of gases) within 200 years. This CO2 increase, i.e. approx. 0.05 ppm per year, was significantly less than the current rise in atmospheric CO2 of 2-3 ppm in the last decade caused by fossil fuels. These data describe an abrupt change in the global carbon cycle during the transition from the last ice age to the present-day warm interglacial and allow conclusions to be drawn about similar processes that could play a role in the future.

To determine the origin of the greenhouse gas, a team around by the geoscientists and climate researchers Dr. Peter Köhler and Dr. Gregor Knorr from the Alfred Wegener Institute has carried out computer simulations focusing on the new interpretation of these CO2 data. These calculations were motivated by new radiocarbon data (14C) that provide information on the age of the CO2 released to the atmosphere. The age of the carbon then allows conclusions to be drawn about the carbon source.

"The virtual lack of radiocarbon in the CO2 that was released into the atmosphere shows us that the carbon must have been very old," says Köhler. The carbon therefore cannot be originated from the deep ocean, Köhler adds: "The carbon stored in the deep ocean has been subject to exchange with the atmosphere over a period of millennia. In the atmosphere 14C has its only source. It is produced through the impact of galactic cosmic rays on molecules in the atmosphere." However, radiocarbon is unstable and decays with a half-life of around 5,700 years. The atmospheric data of CO2 and 14C can only be explained if a carbon source is assumed that contains virtually no 14C any more -- thus the greenhouse gases must have had another source than the deep ocean.

Permafrost soil contains, to some extent, very old organic material, which is released in the form of the greenhouse gases CO2 and methane when the soil thaws. Permafrost soil thus might be a possible source of old carbon. The thawing of Arctic permafrost soil might have been caused by a sudden resumption of large-scale Atlantic heat transport in the ocean that initiated the Bølling/Allerød warm period in the high northern hemisphere.

The scientists were able to estimate the amount of the carbon dioxide released to the atmosphere by applying a computer model that simulates the global carbon cycle. The simulation results indicate that the input of more than half a gigaton of carbon per year (1 gigaton = 1 petagram) over a period of two centuries is necessary to explain the observed data. This corresponds to a total amount of more than 100 gigatons of carbon. Present-day anthropogenic CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels, at approx. ten gigatons of carbon a year, are greater than the release rates of this natural process by a factor of at least ten.

According to the study, the proposed thawing of large areas of permafrost, followed by the rise in greenhouse gases, occurred at the same time as the warming in the northern hemisphere at the beginning of the Bølling warm period. The released greenhouse gases may amplify the initial warming through feedback effects.

A similar effect is also predicted for the future in the current IPCC report. Warming in Siberia, for instance, is already leading to thawing of permafrost soil: outgassing of CO2 and methane takes place. The same processes observed today -- and are expected to an even greater extent in the coming decades -- presumably occurred in a similar manner 14,600 years ago. "However, the state of the climate on Earth today has already been changed by anthropogenically emitted greenhouse gases. Future CO2 release due to the proposed thawing of permafrost will be substantially less than the input due to fossil fuels. However, these emissions from permafrost soil are additional greenhouse gas sources that further amplify the anthropogenically induced effect," says Köhler.

Source:  Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

Logging destabilizes forest soil carbon over time

Chelsea Petrenko, a doctoral candidate at Dartmouth College, is lead author of a study showing that logging triggers the gradual release of the carbon stored in a forest's mineral soils. Credit: Dartmouth College

Logging doesn't immediately jettison carbon stored in a forest's mineral soils into the atmosphere but triggers a gradual release that may contribute to climate change over decades, a Dartmouth College study finds.

The results are the first evidence of a regional trend of lower carbon pools in soils of harvested hardwood forests compared to mature or pristine hardwood forests. The findings appear in the journal Global Change Biology Bioenergy. A PDF of the study is available on request.

Despite scientists' growing appreciation for soil's role in the global carbon cycle, mineral soil carbon pools are largely understudied and previous studies have produced differing results about logging's impact. For example, the U.S. Forest Service assumes that all soil carbon pools do not change after timber harvesting.

The Dartmouth researchers looked at how timber harvesting affects mineral soil carbon over 100 years following harvest in the northeastern United States, where soils account for at least 50 percent of total ecosystem carbon storage. Mineral soils, which underlie the carbon-rich organic layer of the soil, make up the majority of that storage, but are sometimes not included in carbon studies due to the difficulty in collecting samples from the rocky, difficult terrain. The researchers hypothesized that the mineral soil carbon would be lower in forests that had been harvested in the last century than in forests that were more than 100 years old. They collected mineral soil cores from 20 forests in seven areas across the northeastern United States and compared the relative amounts of carbon in the soil from forests that were logged five years ago, 25 years ago, 50 years ago, 75 years ago and 100 years ago.

The results showed no significant differences between mineral soil carbon in the older versus harvested forests. But there was a significant relationship between the time since forest harvest and the size of the carbon pools, which suggested a gradual decline in carbon across the region that may last for decades after harvesting and result in increased atmospheric carbon dioxide.

"Our study suggests that forest harvest does cause biogeochemical changes in mineral soil, but that a small change in a carbon pool may be difficult to detect when comparing large, variable carbon pools," says lead author Chelsea Petrenko) (formerly Vario), a doctoral candidate in the Graduate Program in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and a trainee in Dartmouth's IGERT program for Polar Environmental Change. "Our results are consistent with previous studies that found that soil carbon pools have a gradual and slow response to \disturbance, which may last for several decades following harvest."

A previous Dartmouth study found that clear-cutting releases detectible amounts of carbon stored in deep forest soils, challenging the notion that burning woody biomass for energy is more carbon-neutral than fossil fuels. "Mineral soil, which is the most significant ecosystem carbon pool in temperate forests, should be studied more closely before the carbon neutrality of bioenergy from local wood in temperate forests is asserted," says Petrenko, whose research focuses on the biogeochemistry of warming ecosystems and the impact on climate change.

Source:  Dartmouth College

No laughing matter: Nitrous oxide rose at end of last ice age

Researchers measured increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide concentrations about 16,000 to 10,000 years ago using ice from Taylor Glacier in Antarctica. Credit: Adrian Schilt

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is an important greenhouse gas that doesn't receive as much notoriety as carbon dioxide or methane, but a new study confirms that atmospheric levels of (N₂O) rose significantly as the Earth came out of the last ice age and addresses the cause.

An international team of scientists analyzed air extracted from bubbles enclosed in ancient polar ice from Taylor Glacier in Antarctica, allowing for the reconstruction of the past atmospheric composition. The analysis documented a 30 percent increase in atmospheric nitrous oxide concentrations from 16,000 years ago to 10,000 years ago. This rise in N2O was caused by changes in environmental conditions in the ocean and on land, scientists say, and contributed to the warming at the end of the ice age and the melting of large ice sheets that then existed.

The findings add an important new element to studies of how Earth may respond to a warming climate in the future. Results of the study, which was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the Swiss National Science Foundation, are being published this week in the journal Nature.

"We found that marine and terrestrial sources contributed about equally to the overall increase of nitrous oxide concentrations and generally evolved in parallel at the end of the last ice age," said lead author Adrian Schilt, who did much of the work as a post-doctoral researcher at Oregon State University. Schilt then continued to work on the study at the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Bern in Switzerland.

"The end of the last ice age represents a partial analog to modern warming and allows us to study the response of natural nitrous oxide emissions to changing environmental conditions," Schilt added. "This will allow us to better understand what might happen in the future."

Nitrous oxide is perhaps best known as laughing gas, but it is also produced by microbes on land and in the ocean in processes that occur naturally, but can be enhanced by human activity. Marine nitrous oxide production is linked closely to low oxygen conditions in the upper ocean and global warming is predicted to intensify the low-oxygen zones in many of the world's ocean basins. N2O also destroys ozone in the stratosphere.

"Warming makes terrestrial microbes produce more nitrous oxide," noted co-author Edward Brook, an Oregon State paleoclimatologist whose research team included Schilt. "Greenhouse gases go up and down over time, and we'd like to know more about why that happens and how it affects climate."

Nitrous oxide is among the most difficult greenhouse gases to study in attempting to reconstruct Earth's climate history through ice core analysis. The specific technique that the Oregon State research team used requires large samples of pristine ice that date back to the desired time of study -- in this case, between about 16,000 and 10,000 years ago.

The unusual way in which Taylor Glacier is configured allowed the scientists to extract ice samples from the surface of the glacier instead of drilling deep in the polar ice cap because older ice is transported upward near the glacier margins, said Brook, a professor in Oregon State's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.

The scientists were able to discern the contributions of marine and terrestrial nitrous oxide through analysis of isotopic ratios, which fingerprint the different sources of N2O in the atmosphere.

"The scientific community knew roughly what the N2O concentration trends were prior to this study," Brook said, "but these findings confirm that and provide more exact details about changes in sources. As nitrous oxide in the atmosphere continues to increase -- along with carbon dioxide and methane -- we now will be able to more accurately assess where those contributions are coming from and the rate of the increase."

Atmospheric N2O was roughly 200 parts per billion at the peak of the ice age about 20,000 years ago then rose to 260 ppb by 10,000 years ago. As of 2014, atmospheric N2Owas measured at about 327 ppb, an increase attributed primarily to agricultural influences.
Although the N2O increase at the end of the last ice age was almost equally attributable to marine and terrestrial sources, the scientists say, there were some differences.

"Our data showed that terrestrial emissions changed faster than marine emissions, which was highlighted by a fast increase of emissions on land that preceded the increase in marine emissions," Schilt pointed out. "It appears to be a direct response to a rapid temperature change between 15,000 and 14,000 years ago."

That finding underscores the complexity of analyzing how Earth responds to changing conditions that have to account for marine and terrestrial influences; natural variability; the influence of different greenhouse gases; and a host of other factors, Brook said.

"Natural sources of N2O are predicted to increase in the future and this study will help up test predictions on how the Earth will respond," Brook said.

Source: Oregon State University

Clearing tropical rainforests distorts Earth's wind and water systems, packs climate wallop beyond carbon

The world without tropical rainforests. Credit: Image courtesy of ClimateFocus

A new study released today presents powerful evidence that clearing trees not only spews carbon into the atmosphere, but also triggers major shifts in rainfall and increased temperatures worldwide that are just as potent as those caused by current carbon pollution. Further, the study finds that future agricultural productivity across the globe is at risk from deforestation-induced warming and altered rainfall patterns.

The report, "Effects of Tropical Deforestation on Climate Change and Agriculture," published today in Nature Climate Change and released in collaboration with Climate Focus provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of the climate impacts of tropical forest destruction on agriculture in the tropics and thousands of miles away. Specifically, the study finds that deforestation in South America, Southeast Asia and Africa may alter growing conditions in agricultural areas in the tropics and as far away as the US Midwest, Europe and China.

The study is also the only global synthesis of research based on cutting-edge climate models and empirical data on the direct local, regional and global impacts of cutting down tropical forests, which regulate interactions between the earth and the atmosphere. It predicts that atmospheric impacts resulting from complete tropical deforestation could lead to a rise in global temperature of 0.7 degrees Celsius (on top of the impact from greenhouse gases), which would double the observed global warming since 1850. Currently, climate change negotiators are shaping policies that focus on greenhouse gases, in particular carbon. To date, they have overlooked policy responses that address other ways that forests affect climate.

"Tropical deforestation delivers a double whammy to the climate -- and to farmers," said Deborah Lawrence, Professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, the study's lead author. "Most people know that climate change is a dangerous global problem, and that it's caused by pumping carbon into the atmosphere. But it turns out that removing forests alters moisture and air flow, leading to changes -- from fluctuating rainfall patterns to rises in temperatures -- that are just as hazardous, and happen right away. The impacts go beyond the tropics -- the United Kingdom and Hawaii could see an increase in rainfall while the US Midwest and Southern France could see a decline."

The report presents compelling evidence that tropical deforestation is already affecting local and regional climates. Meteorological data, for example, show that in Thailand, the beginning of the dry season is experiencing less rainfall due to deforestation. And in parts of the Amazon, the world's largest stretch of rainforest, the timing of once-predictable rainfall has shifted due to deforestation. In deforested regions, the wet season is delayed by two weeks; in forested regions, there are no changes.

"The study not only compiles highly relevant scientific literature, it will also help guide policy makers working on climate change. Tropical deforestation impacts weather patterns globally, which makes addressing deforestation one of the most important mitigation strategies," adds Dr. Charlotte Streck, Director of Climate Focus.

Globalized Impacts of Deforestation

"Teleconnections," associated with the mass movement of air and conditions in the upper atmosphere, have the potential to extend the impacts of tropical deforestation on climate globally. An increase in temperature in the tropics due to deforestation generates large upward-moving air masses. When these hit the upper atmosphere they cause ripples, or teleconnections, that flow outward in various directions, similar to the way in which an underwater earthquake can create a tsunami.

Models examined in the study showed that increased or complete deforestation could put the climate in some of the world's most important agriculture regions off kilter. These variations in rainfall and spikes in temperature could occur across the world, according to the report.

For example, complete deforestation of the Amazon Basin would likely reduce rainfall in the US Midwest, Northwest and parts of the south during the agricultural season. The complete deforestation of Central Africa would likely cause declines in rainfall in the Gulf of Mexico and parts of the US Midwest and Northwest and increase it on the Arabian Peninsula. There could also be precipitation declines in Ukraine and Southern Europe.

"While complete deforestation is unlikely to occur, over the course of history, deforestation has continued as countries develop," Lawrence said. "Further, this study fills gaps in our understanding of deforestation tipping points -- and what could happen if we continue down this path."

Turning up the heat, turning down the rain

Across the board, the study reports, deforestation poses risks to agriculture by causing an increase in average temperature, a decline in average rainfall and a change in the location and timing of rainfall. Deforestation, for example, would lead to a reduction in rainfall between 10-15 percent in the region surrounding where the deforestation took place.

According to Lawrence, there is almost always an increase in temperature with deforestation. "This does not change, no matter what you do -- no matter what kind of model you use, temperature increases occur -- whether it's half a degree, a full degree or two degrees."

"That's a very big deal," said Lawrence. "In the last few centuries, the average global temperature has never varied by more than about one degree. Once we go above one degree -- to 1.5 degrees or more -- we're talking about conditions that are very different from anything humanity has ever experienced." Because crops are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and moisture, she added, they would suffer in hotter conditions. Increased floods or decreases in soil moisture would further add to stress on crops.

"Farmers, so reliant on consistent and reliable growing conditions, could lose their bearings and even their incomes, when facing these ups and downs in temperature and rainfall," Lawrence said. "While farmers may ultimately adapt to shifts in the season, it's difficult -- if not impossible -- for farmers to adapt to increased floods or parched soils."

Forests: Not Lungs but Sweat Glands

Because forests turn water from soil into moisture in the air, they cool the atmosphere above them. Tropical forests move more water than any other ecosystem on land. They are central to the earth's process of generating and regenerating moisture, so clearing ever-larger swathes of forest eventually leads to a drying and warming effect. By disturbing the movement of air in remote parts of the atmosphere, tropical deforestation throws temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide out of whack.

The impact of deforestation is diverse and varies across regions and scales -- from small plots of farmland in the midst of the rainforest to large swathes of cattle pasture bordered by forests -- but the more deforestation that occurs, the greater the impact.

"Tropical forests are often talked about as the 'lungs of the earth,' but they're more like the sweat glands," said Lawrence. "They give off a lot of moisture, which helps keep the planet cool. That crucial function is lost -- and even reversed -- when forests are destroyed."

The study found that relatively small plots of deforestation can actually increase rainfall at a local scale. There is, however, a critical clearing size above which rainfall declines dramatically.

Models studied in the report show that in the Amazon and, possibly, in the Congo Basin, 30-50 percent may be the deforestation tipping point. Any additional forest clearing would lead to rainfall reductions that could significantly change ecosystems, and compound the risk of additional dangers, such as an increase in forest fires.

The location of deforested areas can also affect their impacts on regional climates, the study finds. Deforesting West Africa or the Congo could reduce rainfall across the region by 40-50% and increase temperatures there up to 3°C. Regional scale models project that in the Amazon Basin, clearing 40% of the forest would decrease wet-season rainfall by 12% and dry-season rainfall by 21%. It would also reduce by 4% rainfall in the Rio de la Plata Basin, a center for soy, corn and wheat production, thousands of miles south of the Amazon. Because Southeast Asia is surrounded by oceans, the impact of deforestation on regional temperatures and rainfall may be less severe.

To reduce the effects of deforestation on climate change, the data suggest it would be best to retain large swathes of forest across the tropical forest belt and to avoid large-scale deforestation in any single location.

Lawrence added that climate-change negotiators and other policymakers should take the impacts of deforestation seriously. "What happens on the surface of the earth (in terms of changes in vegetation) is a big factor in climate change. We ignore it at our own peril."

Source: ClimateFocus

Maintaining a reliable value of the cost of climate change

Car exhaust. Credit: © Wrangler / Fotolia

The term Social Cost of Carbon is a figure that puts a dollar value on the climate damages per ton of CO2 released, and is used by, among others, policymakers to help determine the costs and benefits of climate policies. In the latest issue of the journal Science, a group of economists and lawyers urge several improvements to the government's figure that would impose a regular, transparent and peer-reviewed process to ensure it is reliable and well-supported by the latest facts.

"By providing an estimate of the damages from an extra ton of CO2 emissions, the Social Cost of Carbon tells us how much money we should devote to mitigating emissions. It separates the efficient policies from the wasteful ones, and for this reason is an incredibly useful tool in devising climate policy," said Prof. Michael Greenstone, one of the authors of the analysis and the director of the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago. "Having said that, every day we are learning more about the science behind climate change and the economic impacts it imposes. It's vital that policy keeps up as our knowledge evolves."

The researchers suggest that the value be updated routinely, specifically they recommend every five years to balance the need for incorporating the latest research with a thorough review process. Part of that process should entail a review by the National Academy of Science's National Research Council, they say, to allow outside experts to be part of the process and suggest changes. They also argue that a single Social Cost of Carbon estimate should be maintained and shared by all government agencies.

"Greenhouse gas emissions cause the same damage, regardless of whether they are emitted through car tailpipes or factory smokestacks, and no matter where in the world they come from," Greenstone said. "For this reason, one, consistently used and rigorously maintained estimate of climate damages is imperative to ensure our climate policies are providing the maximum benefits for the least costs."

William Pizer, the lead author of the study and a professor at Duke University, further emphasized this need.

"To ensure that value exists, it's important that we draw on the expertise of all government agencies, as well as independent experts in the field," Pizer said. "This level of high-quality collaboration and peer review would decrease the likelihood of political factors interfering with the process, and ensure we have the most robust Social Cost of Carbon."

The authors give an example of why such a consistent, collaborative and well-supported value is important. When the Social Cost of Carbon value used today, which was developed with a vigorous approach, is applied to the EPA's recent Clean Power Plan that limits emissions from existing power plants, the benefits of the rule vastly outweigh the damages. However, when applying a past value used by a single agency, the plan's benefits do not exceed the costs.

Additionally, Greenstone noted that the figure is not just a tool for policymakers. The courts, businesses and others use this figure to make important decisions on the impacts associated with climate change.

"The U.S. Social Cost of Carbon is becoming a focal estimate of the likely climate damages globally," Greenstone said. "It's critical that that we get this number right, because it will influence policy around the world."

Greenstone and some of his colleagues have initiated a larger project to determine an even more rigorously maintained cost of climate change at a global scale. "Our hope is that this ongoing research project will inform the periodic revisions of the Social Cost of Carbon that we advocate for in this Science article."

Source: University of Chicago

Another human footprint in the ocean: Rising anthropogenic nitrate levels in North Pacific Ocean

Hawaii Ocean Time-series Program scientists work aboard the R/V Ka'imikai-O-Kanaloa in the North Pacific Ocean. The HOT Program provided decades of data used to reconstruct historical nitrogen concentrations.
Credit: Paul Lethaby, UH SOEST

Human-induced changes to Earth's carbon cycle -- for example, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and ocean acidification -- have been observed for decades. However, a study published this week in Science showed human activities, in particular industrial and agricultural processes, have also had significant impacts on the upper ocean nitrogen cycle.

The rate of deposition of reactive nitrogen (i.e., nitrogen oxides from fossil fuel burning and ammonia compounds from fertilizer use) from the atmosphere to the open ocean has more than doubled globally over the last 100 years. This anthropogenic addition of nitrogen has reached a magnitude comparable to about half of global ocean nitrogen fixation (the natural process by which atmospheric nitrogen gas becomes a useful nutrient for organisms). David Karl, Professor of Oceanography and Director of the Daniel K. Inouye Center for Microbial Oceanography at the University of Hawai'i, teamed up with researchers from Korea, Switzerland and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to assess changes in nitrate concentration between the 1960s and 2000s across the open North Pacific Ocean.

Their analysis, which could discern human-derived nitrogen from natural nitrogen fixation, revealed that the oceanic nitrate concentration increased significantly over the last 30 years in surface waters of the North Pacific due largely to the enhanced deposition of nitrogen from the atmosphere.

"This is a sobering result, one that I would not have predicted," said Karl. "The North Pacific is so vast it is hard to imagine that humans could impact the natural nitrogen cycle."

The researchers used ocean data in conjunction with the state-of-the-art Earth System Model to reconstruct the history of the oceanic nitrate concentration and make predictions about the future state of the North Pacific Ocean. Their assessment revealed a consistent picture of increasing nitrate concentrations, the magnitude and pattern of which can only be explained by the observed increase in atmospheric nitrogen deposition.

Enhanced nitrogen deposition has several potential ecological ramifications. Because biological activity is limited by nitrate availability in the North Pacific Ocean, the input of new nitrogen from the atmosphere may increase photosysnthesis in the sunlit layers and export of carbon-rich organic material out of the surface ocean into the deep.

"The burgeoning human population needs energy and food -- unfortunately, nitrogen pollution is an unintended consequence and not even the open ocean is immune from our daily industrial activities," said Karl.

Given the likelihood that the magnitude of atmospheric nitrogen deposition will continue to increase in the future, the North Pacific Ocean could rapidly switch to having surplus nitrate. Thus, past and future increases in atmospheric nitrogen deposition have the potential to alter the base of the marine food web; and, in the long term, the structure of the ecosystem.

In particular, the shift in nutrient availability could favor marine organisms that thrive under the high nitrate and low phosphorus conditions. If similar trends are confirmed in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, it would constitute another example of a global-scale alteration of Earth system. Further, the findings of this study of the North Pacific highlight the need for greater controls on the emission of nitrogen compounds during combustion and agricultural processes.

Source: University of Hawaii at Manoa