Lightning expected to increase by 50 percent with global warming

Today's climate models predict a 50 percent increase in lightning strikes across the United States during this century as a result of warming temperatures associated with climate change. Credit: © Sondem / Fotolia

Today's climate models predict a 50 percent increase in lightning strikes across the United States during this century as a result of warming temperatures associated with climate change.

Reporting in the Nov. 14 issue of the journal Science, University of California, Berkeley, climate scientist David Romps and his colleagues look at predictions of precipitation and cloud buoyancy in 11 different climate models and conclude that their combined effect will generate more frequent electrical discharges to the ground.

"With warming, thunderstorms become more explosive," said Romps, an assistant professor of earth and planetary science and a faculty scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. "This has to do with water vapor, which is the fuel for explosive deep convection in the atmosphere. Warming causes there to be more water vapor in the atmosphere, and if you have more fuel lying around, when you get ignition, it can go big time."

More lightning strikes mean more human injuries; estimates of people struck each year range from the hundreds to nearly a thousand, with scores of deaths. But another significant impact of increased lightning strikes would be more wildfires, since half of all fires -- and often the hardest to fight -- are ignited by lightning, Romps said. More lightning also would likely generate more nitrogen oxides in the atmosphere, which exert a strong control on atmospheric chemistry.

While some studies have shown changes in lightning associated with seasonal or year-to-year variations in temperature, there have been no reliable analyses to indicate what the future may hold. Romps and graduate student Jacob Seeley hypothesized that two atmospheric properties -- precipitation and cloud buoyancy -- together might be a predictor of lightning, and looked at observations during 2011 to see if there was a correlation.

"Lightning is caused by charge separation within clouds, and to maximize charge separation, you have to loft more water vapor and heavy ice particles into the atmosphere," he said. "We already know that the faster the updrafts, the more lightning, and the more precipitation, the more lightning."

Precipitation -- the total amount of water hitting the ground in the form of rain, snow, hail or other forms -- is basically a measure of how convective the atmosphere is, he said, and convection generates lightning. The ascent speeds of those convective clouds are determined by a factor called CAPE -- convective available potential energy -- which is measured by balloon-borne instruments, called radiosondes, released around the U.S. twice a day.

"CAPE is a measure of how potentially explosive the atmosphere is, that is, how buoyant a parcel of air would be if you got it convecting, if you got it to punch through overlying air into the free troposphere," Romps said. "We hypothesized that the product of precipitation and CAPE would predict lightning."

Using U.S. Weather Service data on precipitation, radiosonde measurements of CAPE and lightning- strike counts from the National Lightning Detection Network at the University of Albany, State University of New York (UAlbany), they concluded that 77 percent of the variations in lightning strikes could be predicted from knowing just these two parameters.

'Blown away'

"We were blown away by how incredibly well that worked to predict lightning strikes," he said.

They then looked at 11 different climate models that predict precipitation and CAPE through this century and are archived in the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CMIP was established as a resource for climate modelers, providing a standard protocol for studying the output of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models so that these models can be compared and validated.

"With CMIP5, we now have for the first time the CAPE and precipitation data to calculate these time series," Romps said.

On average, the models predicted an 11 percent increase in CAPE in the U.S. per degree Celsius rise in global average temperature by the end of the 21st century. Because the models predict little average precipitation increase nationwide over this period, the product of CAPE and precipitation gives about a 12 percent rise in cloud-to-ground lightning strikes per degree in the contiguous U.S., or a roughly 50 percent increase by 2100 if Earth sees the expected 4-degree Celsius increase (7 degrees Fahrenheit) in temperature. This assumes carbon dioxide emissions keep rising consistent with business as usual.

Exactly why CAPE increases as the climate warms is still an area of active research, Romps said, though it is clear that it has to do with the fundamental physics of water. Warm air typically contains more water vapor than cold air; in fact, the amount of water vapor that air can "hold" increases exponentially with temperature. Since water vapor is the fuel for thunderstorms, lightning rates can depend very sensitively on temperature.

In the future, Romps plans to look at the distribution of lightning-strike increases around the U.S. and also explore what lightning data can tell climatologists about atmospheric convection.

Romps' co-authors are Jacob Seeley, also of the Department of Earth and Planetary Science at UC Berkeley, and David Vollaro and John Molinari of the Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences at UAlbany.

The work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research and Office of Biological and Environmental Research, and the National Science Foundation.

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Source: University of California - Berkeley

Logging destabilizes forest soil carbon over time

Chelsea Petrenko, a doctoral candidate at Dartmouth College, is lead author of a study showing that logging triggers the gradual release of the carbon stored in a forest's mineral soils. Credit: Dartmouth College

Logging doesn't immediately jettison carbon stored in a forest's mineral soils into the atmosphere but triggers a gradual release that may contribute to climate change over decades, a Dartmouth College study finds.

The results are the first evidence of a regional trend of lower carbon pools in soils of harvested hardwood forests compared to mature or pristine hardwood forests. The findings appear in the journal Global Change Biology Bioenergy. A PDF of the study is available on request.

Despite scientists' growing appreciation for soil's role in the global carbon cycle, mineral soil carbon pools are largely understudied and previous studies have produced differing results about logging's impact. For example, the U.S. Forest Service assumes that all soil carbon pools do not change after timber harvesting.

The Dartmouth researchers looked at how timber harvesting affects mineral soil carbon over 100 years following harvest in the northeastern United States, where soils account for at least 50 percent of total ecosystem carbon storage. Mineral soils, which underlie the carbon-rich organic layer of the soil, make up the majority of that storage, but are sometimes not included in carbon studies due to the difficulty in collecting samples from the rocky, difficult terrain. The researchers hypothesized that the mineral soil carbon would be lower in forests that had been harvested in the last century than in forests that were more than 100 years old. They collected mineral soil cores from 20 forests in seven areas across the northeastern United States and compared the relative amounts of carbon in the soil from forests that were logged five years ago, 25 years ago, 50 years ago, 75 years ago and 100 years ago.

The results showed no significant differences between mineral soil carbon in the older versus harvested forests. But there was a significant relationship between the time since forest harvest and the size of the carbon pools, which suggested a gradual decline in carbon across the region that may last for decades after harvesting and result in increased atmospheric carbon dioxide.

"Our study suggests that forest harvest does cause biogeochemical changes in mineral soil, but that a small change in a carbon pool may be difficult to detect when comparing large, variable carbon pools," says lead author Chelsea Petrenko) (formerly Vario), a doctoral candidate in the Graduate Program in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and a trainee in Dartmouth's IGERT program for Polar Environmental Change. "Our results are consistent with previous studies that found that soil carbon pools have a gradual and slow response to \disturbance, which may last for several decades following harvest."

A previous Dartmouth study found that clear-cutting releases detectible amounts of carbon stored in deep forest soils, challenging the notion that burning woody biomass for energy is more carbon-neutral than fossil fuels. "Mineral soil, which is the most significant ecosystem carbon pool in temperate forests, should be studied more closely before the carbon neutrality of bioenergy from local wood in temperate forests is asserted," says Petrenko, whose research focuses on the biogeochemistry of warming ecosystems and the impact on climate change.

Source:  Dartmouth College

Early warning signals of abrupt climate change

Drought (stock image). Credit: © carloscastilla / Fotolia

A new study by researchers at the University of Exeter has found early warning signals of a reorganisation of the Atlantic ocean's circulation which could have a profound impact on the global climate system.

The research, published today in the journal Nature Communications, used a simulation from a highly complex model to analyse the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), an important component of the Earth's climate system.

It showed that early warning signals are present up to 250 years before it collapses, suggesting that scientists could monitor the real world overturning circulation for the same signals.

The AMOC is like a conveyor belt in the ocean, driven by the salinity and temperature of the water. The system transports heat energy from the tropics and Southern Hemisphere to the North Atlantic, where it is transferred to the atmosphere.

Experiments suggest that if the AMOC is 'switched off' by extra freshwater entering the North Atlantic, surface air temperature in the North Atlantic region would cool by around 1-3°C, with enhanced cooling of up to 8°C in the worst affected regions.

The collapse would also encourage drought in the Sahel -- the area just south of the Sahara desert -- and dynamic changes in sea level of up to 80cm along the coasts of Europe and North America.

"We found that natural fluctuations in the circulation were getting longer-lived as the collapse was approached, a phenomenon known as critical slowing down," said lead author Chris Boulton.

"We don't know how close we are to a collapse of the circulation, but a real world early warning could help us prevent it, or at least prepare for the consequences" adds co-author Professor Tim Lenton.

The study is the most realistic simulation of the climate system in which this type of early warning signal has been tested.

"The best early warning signals in the model world are in places where major efforts are going into monitoring the circulation in the real world -- so these efforts could have unexpected added value' adds Professor Lenton.

Source: University of Exeter

Another human footprint in the ocean: Rising anthropogenic nitrate levels in North Pacific Ocean

Hawaii Ocean Time-series Program scientists work aboard the R/V Ka'imikai-O-Kanaloa in the North Pacific Ocean. The HOT Program provided decades of data used to reconstruct historical nitrogen concentrations.
Credit: Paul Lethaby, UH SOEST

Human-induced changes to Earth's carbon cycle -- for example, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and ocean acidification -- have been observed for decades. However, a study published this week in Science showed human activities, in particular industrial and agricultural processes, have also had significant impacts on the upper ocean nitrogen cycle.

The rate of deposition of reactive nitrogen (i.e., nitrogen oxides from fossil fuel burning and ammonia compounds from fertilizer use) from the atmosphere to the open ocean has more than doubled globally over the last 100 years. This anthropogenic addition of nitrogen has reached a magnitude comparable to about half of global ocean nitrogen fixation (the natural process by which atmospheric nitrogen gas becomes a useful nutrient for organisms). David Karl, Professor of Oceanography and Director of the Daniel K. Inouye Center for Microbial Oceanography at the University of Hawai'i, teamed up with researchers from Korea, Switzerland and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to assess changes in nitrate concentration between the 1960s and 2000s across the open North Pacific Ocean.

Their analysis, which could discern human-derived nitrogen from natural nitrogen fixation, revealed that the oceanic nitrate concentration increased significantly over the last 30 years in surface waters of the North Pacific due largely to the enhanced deposition of nitrogen from the atmosphere.

"This is a sobering result, one that I would not have predicted," said Karl. "The North Pacific is so vast it is hard to imagine that humans could impact the natural nitrogen cycle."

The researchers used ocean data in conjunction with the state-of-the-art Earth System Model to reconstruct the history of the oceanic nitrate concentration and make predictions about the future state of the North Pacific Ocean. Their assessment revealed a consistent picture of increasing nitrate concentrations, the magnitude and pattern of which can only be explained by the observed increase in atmospheric nitrogen deposition.

Enhanced nitrogen deposition has several potential ecological ramifications. Because biological activity is limited by nitrate availability in the North Pacific Ocean, the input of new nitrogen from the atmosphere may increase photosysnthesis in the sunlit layers and export of carbon-rich organic material out of the surface ocean into the deep.

"The burgeoning human population needs energy and food -- unfortunately, nitrogen pollution is an unintended consequence and not even the open ocean is immune from our daily industrial activities," said Karl.

Given the likelihood that the magnitude of atmospheric nitrogen deposition will continue to increase in the future, the North Pacific Ocean could rapidly switch to having surplus nitrate. Thus, past and future increases in atmospheric nitrogen deposition have the potential to alter the base of the marine food web; and, in the long term, the structure of the ecosystem.

In particular, the shift in nutrient availability could favor marine organisms that thrive under the high nitrate and low phosphorus conditions. If similar trends are confirmed in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, it would constitute another example of a global-scale alteration of Earth system. Further, the findings of this study of the North Pacific highlight the need for greater controls on the emission of nitrogen compounds during combustion and agricultural processes.

Source: University of Hawaii at Manoa