Black holes follow the rules

Artist's impression of a black hole at the centre of a galaxy. Credit: Gabriel Pérez Díaz.

Rather than having random sizes, massive black holes seem to follow a predictable rule in relation to the physical properties of the galaxy in which they are located.

Research at Swinburne University of Technology has shown that it is possible to predict the masses of black holes in galaxies for which it was previously thought not possible.

In large galaxies, the central black hole is related to the mass of the spheroid-shaped distribution of stars at the centre of the galaxy, known as the galaxy’s 'bulge'.

Some astronomers have claimed that the size of black holes at the centres of galaxies with small bulges was unrelated to the bulge.

Even the four million solar mass black hole in the bulge of our Milky Way galaxy was thought to be arbitrarily low relative to trends defined by their more massive, and therefore easier to detect, counterparts.

However, in previous work Swinburne Professor Alister Graham, lead-author of the current research, identified a new relationship involving black holes in galaxies with small bulges.  He demonstrated that the black hole in the bulge of the Milky Way was not set by chance but instead followed an astronomical rule.

“The formula is quadratic, in that the black hole mass quadruples every time the bulge mass doubles,” Professor Graham said. “Therefore, if the bulge mass increases 10 times, the black hole mass increases 100 times.”

Now, after studying more than 100 galaxies with black holes 4 to 40 times less massive than our Milky Way's black hole, they too have been found to follow this same rule.

"It turns out that there is yet more order in our Universe than previously appreciated,” Professor Graham said.

"This is exciting not just because it provides further insight into the mechanics of black hole formation, but because of the predictions it allows us to make."

The gravitational collapse of massive stars can produce black holes up to a few tens of times the mass of our Sun. And black holes that are one-tenth of a million to ten billion times the mass of our Sun have been identified at the centres of giant galaxies. However, there is a missing population of intermediate-mass black holes.

Astronomers don't know if this is because of observational difficulties in finding them, or if the massive black holes at the centres of galaxies start life as 100,000 solar mass seed black holes that formed in the early Universe.

This latest result, which extends the new rule to 40-times lower masses, gives astronomers some confidence that it may extend even further, so the smallest bulges might host these missing intermediate-mass black holes. 

"If confirmed, it would imply tremendous black hole appetites", co-author of the study, Dr Nicholas Scott, said. "There would need to be a dramatic growth of these small black holes relative to their host bulge, with the bulges growing via the creation of stars out of gas clouds while the black holes devour both gas and stars."

The researchers have identified a few dozen candidate galaxies in which they think intermediate-mass black holes may be hiding.  Future observations, with facilities such as the Square Kilometre Array and space-based X-ray telescopes, are expected to help resolve this black hole mystery.

Source: Swinburne

Radiation from early universe found key to answer major questions in physics

The UC San Diego astrophysicists employed the HuanTran Telescope in Chile to measure the polarization of the cosmic microwave background. Credit: POLARBEAR

Astrophysicists at UC San Diego have measured the minute gravitational distortions in polarized radiation from the early universe and discovered that these ancient microwaves can provide an important cosmological test of Einstein's theory of general relativity. These measurements have the potential to narrow down the estimates for the mass of ghostly subatomic particles known as neutrinos.

The radiation could even provide physicists with clues to another outstanding problem about our universe: how the invisible "dark matter" and "dark energy," which has been undetectable through modern telescopes, may be distributed throughout the universe.

The scientists are publishing details of their achievement in the June issue of the journal Physical Review Letters.

The UC San Diego scientists measured variations in the polarization of microwaves emanating from the Cosmic Microwave Background -- or CMB -- of the early universe. Like polarized light (which vibrates in one direction and is produced by the scattering of visible light off the surface of the ocean, for example), the polarized "B-mode" microwaves the scientists discovered were produced when CMB radiation from the early universe scattered off electrons 380,000 years after the Big Bang, when the cosmos cooled enough to allow protons and electrons to combine into atoms.

Astronomers had hoped the unique B-mode polarization signature from the early cosmos would allow them to effective "see" portions of the universe that are invisible to optical telescopes as gravity from denser portions of the universe tug on the polarized light, slightly deflecting its passage through the cosmos during its 13.8 billion year trip to Earth. Through a process called "weak gravitational lensing," the distortions in the B-mode polarization pattern, they hoped, would allow astronomers to map regions of the universe filled with invisible "dark matter" and "dark energy" and well as provide a test for general relativity on cosmological scales.

The recent discovery confirms both hunches. By measuring the CMB polarization data provided by POLARBEAR, a collaboration of astronomers working on a telescope in the high-altitude desert of northern Chile designed specifically to detect "B-mode" polarization, the UC San Diego astrophysicists discovered weak gravitational lensing in their data that, they conclude, permit astronomers to make detailed maps of the structure of the universe, constrain estimates of neutrino mass and provide a firm test for general relativity.

"This is the first time we've made these kinds of measurements using CMB polarization data," said Chang Feng, the lead author of the paper and a physics graduate student at UC San Diego who conducted his study with Brian Keating, an associate professor of physics at the university and a co-leader of the POLARBEAR experiment. "This was the first direct measurement of CMB polarization lensing. And the amazing thing is that the amount of lensing that we found through these calculations is consistent with what Einstein's general relativity theory predicted. So we now have a way to verify general relativity on cosmological scales."

The POLARBEAR experiment examined a small (30 degree square) region of the sky to produce high resolution maps of B-mode polarization, which enabled the team to determine that the amplitude of gravitational fluctuations they measured was consistent with the leading theoretical model of the universe, known as the Lambda Cold Dark Matter cosmological model. Another team Keating's group collaborates with, based at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, called BICEP2, used a telescope at the South Pole to examine B-mode polarization across wide swaths of the sky. In March, it announced it had found evidence for a brief and very rapid expansion of the early universe, called inflation.

One of the most important questions in physics that can be addressed from these data is the mass of the weakly interacting neutrino, which was thought to have no mass, but current limits indicate that neutrinos have masses below 1.5 electron volts. Feng said the B-mode polarization data in his study, while consistent with the predictions of general relativity, are not statistically significant enough yet to make any firm claims about neutrino masses. But over the next year, he and Keating hope to analyze enough data from POLARBEAR, and its successor instrument -- the Simons Array -- to provide more certainty about the masses of neutrinos.

"This study is a first step toward using polarization lensing as a probe to measure the mass of neutrinos, using the whole universe as a laboratory," Feng said.

"Eventually we will be able to put enough neutrinos on a 'scale' to weigh them -- precisely measuring their mass," Keating says. "Using the tools Chang has developed, it's only a matter of time before we can weigh the neutrino, the only fundamental elementary particle whose mass is unknown. That would be an astounding achievement for astronomy, cosmology and physics itself."

The study was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Simmons Foundation, and Irwin and Joan Jacobs.

Source: University of California - San Diego

Exploding stars prove Newton's law of gravity unchanged over cosmic time

Remains of a Type Ia supernovae (G299.2-2.9). Credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/U.Texas/S. Park et al, ROSAT; Infrared: 2MASS/UMass/IPAC-Caltech/NASA/NSF

Australian astronomers have combined all observations of supernovae ever made to determine that the strength of gravity has remained unchanged over the last nine billion years.

Newton's gravitational constant, known as G, describes the attractive force between two objects, together with the separation between them and their masses. It has been previously suggested that G could have been slowly changing over the 13.8 billion years since the Big Bang.

If G has been decreasing over time, for example, this would mean that Earth's distance to the Sun was slightly larger in the past, meaning that we would experience longer seasons now compared to much earlier points in Earth's history.

But researchers at Swinburne University of Technology in Melbourne have now analysed the light given off by 580 supernova explosions in the nearby and far Universe and have shown that the strength of gravity has not changed.

"Looking back in cosmic time to find out how the laws of physics may have changed is not new" Swinburne Professor Jeremy Mould said. "But supernova cosmology now allows us to do this with gravity."

A Type 1a supernova marks the violent death of a star called a white dwarf, which is as massive as our Sun but packed into a ball the size of our Earth.

Our telescopes can detect the light from this explosion and use its brightness as a 'standard candle' to measure distances in the Universe, a tool that helped Australian astronomer Professor Brian Schmidt in his 2011 Nobel Prize winning work, discovering the mysterious force Dark Energy.

Professor Mould and his PhD student Syed Uddin at the Swinburne Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing and the ARC Centre of Excellence for All-sky Astrophysics (CAASTRO) assumed that these supernova explosions happen when a white dwarf reaches a critical mass or after colliding with other stars to 'tip it over the edge'.

"This critical mass depends on Newton's gravitational constant G and allows us to monitor it over billions of years of cosmic time -- instead of only decades, as was the case in previous studies," Professor Mould said.

Despite these vastly different time spans, their results agree with findings from the Lunar Laser Ranging Experiment that has been measuring the distance between Earth and the Moon since NASA's Apollo missions in the 1960s and has been able to monitor possible variations in G at very high precision.

"Our cosmological analysis complements experimental efforts to describe and constrain the laws of physics in a new way and over cosmic time." Mr Uddin said.

In their current publication, the Swinburne researchers were able to set an upper limit on the change in Newton's gravitational constant of 1 part in 10 billion per year over the past nine billion years.

The ARC Centre of Excellence for All-sky Astrophysics (CAASTRO) is a collaboration between The Australian National University, The University of Sydney, The University of Melbourne, Swinburne University of Technology, the University of Queensland, The University of Western Australia and Curtin University, the latter two participating together as the International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research. CAASTRO is funded under the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence program, with additional funding from the seven participating universities and from the NSW State Government's Science Leveraging Fund.

The research is published this month in the Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia.

Source: Swinburne University of Technology

Plugging the hole in Hawking's black hole theory

Recently physicists have been poking holes again in Stephen Hawking's black hole theory -- including Hawking himself. For decades physicists across the globe have been trying to figure out the mysteries of black holes -- those fascinating monstrous entities that have such intense gravitational pull that nothing -- not even light -- can escape from them. Credit: Still image from video courtesy of Michigan State University

Recently physicists have been poking holes again in Stephen Hawking's black hole theory -- including Hawking himself. For decades physicists across the globe have been trying to figure out the mysteries of black holes -- those fascinating monstrous entities that have such intense gravitational pull that nothing -- not even light -- can escape from them. Now Professor Chris Adami, Michigan State University, has jumped into the fray.

The debate about the behavior of black holes, which has been ongoing since 1975, was reignited when Hawking posted a blog on Jan. 22, 2014, stating that event horizons -- the invisible boundaries of black holes -- do not exist.

Hawking, considered to be the foremost expert on black holes, has over the years revised his theory and continues to work on understanding these cosmic puzzles.

One of the many perplexities is a decades-old debate about what happens to information -- matter or energy and their characteristics at the atomic and subatomic level -- in black holes.

"In 1975, Hawking discovered that black holes aren't all black. They actually radiate a featureless glow, now called Hawking radiation," Adami said. "In his original theory, 

Hawking stated that the radiation slowly consumes the black hole and it eventually evaporates and disappears, concluding that information and anything that enters the black hole would be irretrievably lost."

But this theory created a fundamental problem, dubbed the information paradox.

Now Adami believes he's solved it.

"According to the laws of quantum physics, information can't disappear," Adami said. "A loss of information would imply that the universe itself would suddenly become unpredictable every time the black hole swallows a particle. That is just inconceivable. No law of physics that we know allows this to happen."

So if the black hole sucks in information with its intense gravitational pull, then later disappears entirely, information and all, how can the laws of quantum physics be preserved?

The solution, Adami says, is that the information is contained in the stimulated emission of radiation, which must accompany the Hawking radiation -- the glow that makes a black hole not so black. Stimulated emission makes the black hole glow in the information that it swallowed.

"Stimulated emission is the physical process behind LASERS (Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation). Basically, it works like a copy machine: you throw something into the machine, and two identical somethings come out.

"If you throw information at a black hole, just before it is swallowed, the black hole first makes a copy that is left outside. This copying mechanism was discovered by Albert Einstein in 1917, and without it, physics cannot be consistent," Adami said.

Do others agree with Adami's theory that stimulated emission is the missing piece that solves the information paradox?

According to Paul Davies, cosmologist, astrobiologist and theoretical physicist at Arizona State University, "In my view Chris Adami has correctly identified the solution to the so-called black hole information paradox. Ironically, it has been hiding in plain sight for years. Hawking's famous black hole radiation is an example of so-called spontaneous emission of radiation, but it is only part of the story. There must also be the possibility of stimulated emission -- the process that puts the S in LASER."

With so many researchers trying to fix Hawking's theory, why did it take so long if it was hiding in plain sight?

"While a few people did realize that the stimulated emission effect was missing in Hawking's calculation, they could not resolve the paradox without a deep understanding of quantum communication theory," Adami said. Quantum communication theory was designed to understand how information interacts with quantum systems, and Adami was one of the pioneers of quantum information theory back in the '90s.

Trying to solve this information paradox has kept Adami awake many nights as demonstrated by his thick notebooks filled with 10 years of mathematical calculations.

So where does this leave us, according to Adami?

"Stephen Hawking's wonderful theory is now complete in my opinion. The hole in the black hole theory is plugged, and I can now sleep at night," he said.

Adami may now sleep well at night, but his theory is sure to keep other physicists up trying to confirm whether he has actually solved the mystery.

The study was co-authored by Greg Ver Steeg, University of Southern California and is published online in the journal Classical and Quantum Gravity.

Source: Michigan State University

Gravity may have saved the universe after the Big Bang, say researchers

Center of the Milky Way galaxy (stock image). Credit: © DR / Fotolia

New research by a team of European physicists could explain why the universe did not collapse immediately after the Big Bang.

Studies of the Higgs particle -- discovered at CERN in 2012 and responsible for giving mass to all particles -- have suggested that the production of Higgs particles during the accelerating expansion of the very early universe (inflation) should have led to instability and collapse.

Scientists have been trying to find out why this didn't happen, leading to theories that there must be some new physics that will help explain the origins of the universe that has not yet been discovered. Physicists from Imperial College London, and the Universities of Copenhagen and Helsinki, however, believe there is a simpler explanation.

In a new study in Physical Review Letters, the team describe how the spacetime curvature -- in effect, gravity -- provided the stability needed for the universe to survive expansion in that early period. The team investigated the interaction between the Higgs particles and gravity, taking into account how it would vary with energy.

They show that even a small interaction would have been enough to stabilise the universe against decay.

"The Standard Model of particle physics, which scientists use to explain elementary particles and their interactions, has so far not provided an answer to why the universe did not collapse following the Big Bang," explains Professor Arttu Rajantie, from the Department of Physics at Imperial College London.

"Our research investigates the last unknown parameter in the Standard Model -- the interaction between the Higgs particle and gravity. This parameter cannot be measured in particle accelerator experiments, but it has a big effect on the Higgs instability during inflation. Even a relatively small value is enough to explain the survival of the universe without any new physics!"

The team plan to continue their research using cosmological observations to look at this interaction in more detail and explain what effect it would have had on the development of the early universe. In particular, they will use data from current and future European Space Agency missions measuring cosmic microwave background radiation and gravitational waves.

"Our aim is to measure the interaction between gravity and the Higgs field using cosmological data," says Professor Rajantie. "If we are able to do that, we will have supplied the last unknown number in the Standard Model of particle physics and be closer to answering fundamental questions about how we are all here."

The research is funded by the Science and Technology Facilities Council, along with the Villum Foundation, in Denmark, and the Academy of Finland.

Source: Imperial College London

Physicists suggest new way to detect dark matter

This is associate professor Chris Kouvaris from the University of Southern Denmark. Credit: University of Southern Denmark

For years physicists have been looking for the universe's elusive dark matter, but so far no one has seen any trace of it. Maybe we are looking in the wrong place? Now physicists from University of Southern Denmark propose a new technique to detect dark matter.

The universe consists of atoms and particles -- and a whole lot more that still needs to be detected. We can only speculate about the existence of this unknown matter and energy.

"We know that app. 5 pct. of the universe consists of the known matter we are all made of. 

The rest is unknown. This unknown matter is called dark matter, and we believe that it is all around us, including here on Earth," explains Chris Kouvaris, associate professor at the Centre for Cosmology and Particle Physics Phenomenology (CP3-Origins), Department of Physics, Chemistry and Pharmacy, University of Southern Denmark.

He and his colleague from CP3-Origins, postdoc Ian Shoemaker, now suggest a new way to detect the existence of the elusive dark matter.

Cosmic noise is a problem

Over the last years, physicists have placed detectors in underground sites app. a kilometer or more deep in order to detect dark matter. The idea is that dark matter is easier to detect in deep sites because there is less noise from cosmic or Earth-produced radiation that can potentially cover the dark matter signal. This approach of detecting dark matter makes sense provided that dark matter interacts only a bit with atoms as it goes underground. The scientific term for this is that dark matter is weakly interacting with its surroundings.

"But we don't know if dark matter is that weakly interacting. In principle dark matter particles can lose energy as they travel underground before they hit the detector due to interactions with regular atoms. And in that case they might not have enough energy left to trigger the detector once they arrive there," says Chris Kouvaris.

Signals are good 12 hours a day

In a new research paper, he and Shoemaker study the possibility that dark matter can indeed interact substantially with atoms. They claim that depending on the properties of the dark matter particles, deep placed detectors can be blind because particles might have lost most of their energy before reaching the detector.

"In such a case, it would make more sense to look for dark matter signals on the surface of the Earth or in shallow sites," Kouvaris argues.

Placing a detector in shallow sites or on the surface ensures small energy loss for the dark matter particles but it also means a big increase in the background noise. This was after all the reason why detectors were placed in deep sites in the first place. To overcome this problem Kouvaris and Shoemaker propose -- instead of trying to detect a single collision of a dark matter particle with the detector -- to look for a signal that varies periodically during the day.

Because dark matter particles approach the detector from various directions, as the Earth rotates, the flux of the particles reaching the detector can vary. This causes a signal that will go from maximum to minimum in 12 hours and back to maximum again after another 12 hours.

Such a pattern will make the signals from dark matter stand out clear even though the detectors also pick up cosmic noise.

"The best locations for the observation of such a modulation signal are places in the south hemisphere with latitude around 40 degrees, such as Argentina, Chile and New Zealand" says Chris Kouvaris.

What is dark matter and dark energy?

27 pct. of the universe is believed to consist of dark matter. Dark matter is believed to be the "glue" that holds galaxies together. Nobody knows what dark matter really is.

5 pct. of the universe consists of known matter such as atoms and subatomic particles.
The rest of the universe is believed to consist of dark energy. Dark energy is believed to make the universe expand.

Source: University of Southern Denmark

Researchers detect possible signal from dark matter

Could there finally be tangible evidence for the existence of dark matter in the Universe? After sifting through reams of X-ray data, scientists in EPFL's Laboratory of Particle Physics and Cosmology (LPPC) and Leiden University believe they could have identified the signal of a particle of dark matter. Credit: Image courtesy of Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (screen shot from video)

Could there finally be tangible evidence for the existence of dark matter in the Universe? After sifting through reams of X-ray data, scientists in EPFL's Laboratory of Particle Physics and Cosmology (LPPC) and Leiden University believe they could have identified the signal of a particle of dark matter. This substance, which up to now has been purely hypothetical, is run by none of the standard models of physics other than through the gravitational force. Their research will be published next week in Physical Review Letters.

When physicists study the dynamics of galaxies and the movement of stars, they are confronted with a mystery. If they only take visible matter into account, their equations simply don't add up: the elements that can be observed are not sufficient to explain the rotation of objects and the existing gravitational forces. There is something missing. From this they deduced that there must be an invisible kind of matter that does not interact with light, but does, as a whole, interact by means of the gravitational force. Called "dark matter," this substance appears to make up at least 80% of the Universe.
Andromeda and Perseus revisited

Two groups have recently announced that they have detected the much sought after signal. One of them, led by EPFL scientists Oleg Ruchayskiy and Alexey Boyarsky, also a professor at Leiden University in the Netherlands, found it by analyzing X-rays emitted by two celestial objects -- the Perseus galaxy cluster and the Andromeda galaxy. After having collected thousands of signals from the ESA's XMM-Newton telescope and eliminated all those coming from known particles and atoms, they detected an anomaly that, even considering the possibility of instrument or measurement error, caught their attention.

The signal appears in the X-ray spectrum as a weak, atypical photon emission that could not be attributed to any known form of matter. Above all, "the signal's distribution within the galaxy corresponds exactly to what we were expecting with dark matter, that is, concentrated and intense in the center of objects and weaker and diffuse on the edges," explains Ruchayskiy. "With the goal of verifying our findings, we then looked at data from our own galaxy, the Milky Way, and made the same observations," says Boyarsky.

A new era

The signal comes from a very rare event in the Universe: a photon emitted due to the destruction of a hypothetical particle, possibly a "sterile neutrino." If the discovery is confirmed, it will open up new avenues of research in particle physics. Apart from that, "It could usher in a new era in astronomy," says Ruchayskiy. "Confirmation of this discovery may lead to construction of new telescopes specially designed for studying the signals from dark matter particles," adds Boyarsky. "We will know where to look in order to trace dark structures in space and will be able to reconstruct how the Universe has formed."

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Source: Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Physicist presents new observational solar weather model

An observation-based model presented in China by physicist Dr. S.T. Wu makes it possible to predict solar weather. Credit: Michael Mercier / UAH

Scientists now have an observational framework to help predict solar weather and how it will affect Earth.

"Now it's possible that we can have a space weather model that's like Earth's meteorology," says physicist Dr. S.T. Wu, distinguished professor emeritus of The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering.

That's thanks to the observation-based model that predicts the occurrence and timing of solar mass ejections recently presented by Dr. Wu at the Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics' (SCOSTEP's) 13th Quadrennial Solar-Terrestrial Physics Symposium in Xi'An, China.

Being able to predict such events is important because a powerful direct hit by a coronal mass ejection (CME) is like a huge space hurricane that can deform Earth's magnetic field and fry the circuits of orbiting satellites, spacecraft and delicate terrestrial electronics.

In a large-scale storm, cell service would stop, air traffic control would lose its eyes and ears, and everything could be affected from traffic light control to the automated heating and cooling of buildings to the critical systems that control nuclear armaments. Earth would become largely dark as power grids blink offline.

The solar radiation could directly affect the health of humans, too, Dr. Wu says.

"If you travel to the Pacific, the airlines like to fly you there over the North Pole," he says. "That is the most direct route. But during a coronal event, the solar radiation can affect people, so the airlines try to avoid it by flying below the polar route."

Diverting around the polar route is necessary but costs extra time and money, Dr. Wu says, which is why the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meets with airlines annually about possible upcoming events. Better predictions would help airlines.

The new predictive model is the culmination of decades of work by Dr. Wu, the founder and first director of UAH's Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research (CSPAR). He wrote his first research paper on the subject of CME modeling in 1978.

The new model advances previous CME work by Dr. Wu and a global research group that includes his former students and post-doctoral students. Working with Dr. Wu are Dr. Chaowei Jiang of CSPAR and Dr. Xueshang Feng, Dr. Yufen Zhou and Dr. Qiang Hu of China's State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Solar-Interplanetary-GeoMAgnetic Weather Group (SIGMA Weather Group).

In the previous work, Dr. Wu's team devised a model for the development of CMEs that was tested and proven against CMEs observed in the past. The scientists also modeled the conditions that are present in solar magnetic shear -- a sigmoidal twisting of the sun's magnetic field, flux emergence, null formation, torus instability, reconnection and free energy that can cause a CME. Their mathematical model of developing coronal mass ejections was shown to be accurate by comparison with actual observed phenomena from spacecraft tracking events on the sun's surface.

The researchers successfully performed a data-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of a realistic CME initiation process, a step that helped lead to the predictive model and to better understanding the precursors to these solar storms. "Last time, we only modeled a coronal mass ejection," Dr. Wu says. "Now, we have put that eruption result into our propagation model. We have integrated what we did before into a global propagation model."

The predictive model can foresee the development and impacts of a CME from its genesis on the sun through its journey in the interplanetary medium and to its interaction with Earth.

The presentation was well received by the scientists at the conference because "I didn't use any theoretical inputs," says Dr. Wu.

"Others are doing this work, but they are still using theoretical models, but our work is observational, and that is the difference," he says. "It is more realistic because we start out from the sun and what you can see there, and then we work our way out."

The model provides important information to other scientists working on solar storm prediction.

"I've got the fram

ework that says it can be done, so now everybody can do it," says Dr. Wu. Further development of an accurate solar weather prediction system will take supercomputers and the efforts of many researchers and universities, he says. "Now, everybody can jump in with their own research."

Arriving at the working model caps took 36 years of research for Dr. Wu, a period of time he puts in perspective by talking about the development of meteorology.

"It took 60 years to develop accurate meteorology on Earth," he says. "Everybody knows we needed to do this, but finally we got a result. I feel really good about that I can get a handle on it."

Source:  University of Alabama Huntsville